Confluence Podcasts

We’ve written extensively about the worsening geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, which have already affected investors. In our "2022 Geopolitical Outlook" published in December, we identified China as the #1 geopolitical issue to impact financial markets and investment policy for the foreseeable future. In the inaugural episode of Confluence's new Geopolitical Podcast serie...

When will the Federal Reserve begin a much-anticipated series of rate hikes in order to tame inflation? Many, if not most, market analysts are predicting more than one rate hike and perhaps as many as four in 2022, but Confluence goes against the grain on this issue. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady explains why the Fed may delay rate hikes until 2023.

What's causing it and should we be worried? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez takes a look at the flattening bond yield curve and explains how inflation and Fed rate hike expectations have affected it.

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, and Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, discuss the geopolitical problems that could affect regional stability with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Risks to Iran, India, China, Russia, and the “stans” are discussed, including the potential for a refugee crisis that might spread beyond the region.

The emergence of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron, appears to have changed inflation expectations at the Fed and gave financial markets quite a jolt as well when the news came out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses what may be the reasoning behind Chair Powell's change of heart and the possible impact on investors.

As inflation heats up, will gold prices do the same? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives an update on the price of gold.

President Biden has some open positions to fill on the Federal Reserve Board, and the process bears close watching as the market anticipates future decisions on interest rates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how the policy tilt of the Fed could change based not only on who is chosen, but also the speed at which positions are filled.

Where are bond yields headed? An index that may be little-known among many investors, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, might provide some valuable clues. Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explains what this index measures and how it's proving to be a fairly accurate predictor of future bond yields.

Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady is here to discuss the market's influence on the Fed. Can we, with any confidence, look to the performance of financial markets for clues as to when the Federal Reserve will move on interest rates? Isn't the Fed supposed to prioritize inflation and employment as factors in its decision-making rather than rescuing the markets?

Raising the federal debt limit has reemerged this fall as a political issue with the potential to impact the financial markets. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the current standoff over the debt limit and the investment implications.

Social security recipients will be getting a raise next year: cost of living adjustment (COLA) announced by the federal government is 5.9%. Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how the social security COLA impacts the economy and how it compares to other years.

The pandemic has shown that globalization is ill-suited to deal with global supply shocks. In this week's episode, Staff Economist Thomas Wash elaborates on the supply chain breakdown and explores the impact on inflation and the dilemma it poses for the Federal Reserve.

Has Bitcoin become a substitute for gold, and is there a fit for Bitcoin within a risk-sensitive investment portfolio? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez addresses these questions by taking a statistical approach.

We return to the subject of inflation this week. Staff Economist Thomas Wash looks at a more positive recent inflationary trend, month-over-month inflation numbers, and what these figures can tell us about the strength and staying power of inflation that we don't get from the year-over-year numbers.

"Is it transitory?" This is the question we're hearing everywhere about inflation. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses whether we should worry that the inflation we're experiencing today will last even when the pandemic diminishes.

The Federal Reserve is closely watching the labor force for clues on how quickly the economy is recovering as it considers its timetable for withdrawing stimulus and eventually raising rates. Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses the size of the workforce and how quickly workers are reentering the jobs market now that enhanced unemployment benefits have expired.

It appears likely that Jerome Powell will be nominated by President Biden to serve another term as Fed Chair, but that doesn't mean there isn't significant opposition. The nature of this opposition calls into question the fundamental relationship between the Fed and Congress, which could eventually have a significant impact on investors. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the likelihoo...

When will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? The timing of Fed action will depend on how quickly America emerges from the pandemic-induced recession; how fast jobs recover is one way to measure that. To address this issue, we look at the composition of the FOMC and the history of monetary policy in past recoveries.

How is the pandemic affecting the labor market? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses which effects represent a continuation, or acceleration, of previous trends and which are brand new to the labor market as a result of the pandemic.

What are the implications of growing intellectual property investment? Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez focuses on the growing importance of intellectual property investment by U.S. corporations and the implications for individual investors.

How does unified government affect long-duration bond yields? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, examines the statistical evidence.

Where are bond yields likely headed? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at bond yields, focusing on the 10-year Treasury note.

What are the implications for investors and for the world economy of high corporate debt in China? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses this question.

How stable is the labor market? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the current state of the labor market.

What do the Distributional Financial Accounts data tell us about the economy and financial system? As a follow-up to the Flow of Funds data, Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses how this subsequent release offers a deeper dive into the previous numbers.