Confluence Podcasts

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discuss the geopolitics of Taiwan and the risks to globalization presented by the concentration of the semiconductor industry on the island of Taiwan. Topics include the issue of strategic ambiguity, the potential chokepoint that Taiwan’s semiconductor’s industry represents, and the issue of Taiwan/China unificatio...

What does the Flow of Funds data tell us about the economy and financial system? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at this latest report from the Federal Reserve for insights on the economy and investment environment.

How are "base effects" affecting today's economic and financial data? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, reviews what we mean when we talk about "base effects" and how the year-over-year comparisons change our perceptions.

Should we be concerned with the rise in inflation expectations? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, addresses the relationship between inflation expectations and actual inflation.

What is behind the recent rally in gold? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, reviews the recent performance of gold prices and reasons for the price action.

Why aren't people returning to the labor force? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the labor shortage we're seeing in workplaces as the threat of the pandemic wanes and the economy opens up.

Is the Canadian housing market a bubble ready to pop? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at the housing market in Canada and whether a price bubble is forming there.

How does the Confluence Asset Allocation Committee forecast? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the process the Confluence asset allocation investment team uses to arrive at its economic forecasts, which are the basis for the firm's asset allocation recommendations.

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez authored a five-part series earlier this year on the balance of power between the US and China (published January 11 - February 22). His reports offer a comprehensive view of the relative power of the US and China in various areas, including military, economic, and diplomatic. In Part I, Patrick and host Phil Adler examined China’s goals and as...

Will rising rent and home prices impact CPI? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at how increasing housing costs will impact the Consumer Price Index.

Should we be concerned with rising inflation? This week, Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, continues our recent focus on inflation with a discussion of recent market volatility and whether the markets are overreacting.

Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on the relationship between aging populations and future inflation.

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez recently authored a five-part series on the balance of power between the US and China. His reports offer a comprehensive view of the relative power of the US and China in various areas, including military, economic, and diplomatic. In this first podcast episode, host Phil Adler examines China’s goals and aspirations, and discusses China’s growi...

Why is gold weak, and do we still hold a favorable view? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the decline in gold prices over the past few months and the underlying fundamentals.

Why are 10-year Treasuries rising? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, focuses on the recent increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, an event which the stock market is watching carefully.

What are the investment opportunities in Japanese stocks? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses whether Japan is currently an attractive destination for U.S. investors.

Where are we in terms of our 2021 Outlook? The S&P 500 is already close to the forecast zone presented in our 2021 Outlook report. Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the stock market's performance so far this year and how asset prices might behave in the coming months.

What is the impact of higher bond yields? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the latest inflation data.

How bad was the jobs report? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the January jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department, which generated lots of worried comments in the media.

Is the Fed facing the Tinbergen problem? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at a challenge shaping up for the Federal Reserve known to economists as the Tinbergen problem--whether encouraging employment by keeping interest rates low might contribute to encouraging risky investment that could lead to a stock market bubble.

In mid-December, we published our geopolitical outlook for 2021. In this podcast episode, Phil Adler, our host, interviews Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez as they examine the five areas of concern discussed in the report. These issues are the return of the establishment, the anti-China alliance project, the Middle East, North Korea, and the return of inflation. In addition, we talk about...

What is the situation in housing? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the housing sector & the current state of housing in the U.S.

What is the outlook for inflation? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses inflation expectations and what measures Confluence relies on when considering inflation.

What will be Joe Biden's focus in his first term? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, examines what economic statistics suggest might, or should, be the focus of an economic recovery plan as the Biden administration takes office.

What is the impact of currency debasement? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the rare policy event of currency debasement.