Confluence Podcasts

Should we be concerned with rising inflation? This week, Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, continues our recent focus on inflation with a discussion of recent market volatility and whether the markets are overreacting.

Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on the relationship between aging populations and future inflation.

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez recently authored a five-part series on the balance of power between the US and China. His reports offer a comprehensive view of the relative power of the US and China in various areas, including military, economic, and diplomatic. In this first podcast episode, host Phil Adler examines China’s goals and aspirations, and discusses China’s growi...

Why is gold weak, and do we still hold a favorable view? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the decline in gold prices over the past few months and the underlying fundamentals.

Why are 10-year Treasuries rising? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, focuses on the recent increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, an event which the stock market is watching carefully.

What are the investment opportunities in Japanese stocks? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses whether Japan is currently an attractive destination for U.S. investors.

Where are we in terms of our 2021 Outlook? The S&P 500 is already close to the forecast zone presented in our 2021 Outlook report. Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the stock market's performance so far this year and how asset prices might behave in the coming months.

What is the impact of higher bond yields? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the latest inflation data.

How bad was the jobs report? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, looks at the January jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department, which generated lots of worried comments in the media.

Is the Fed facing the Tinbergen problem? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at a challenge shaping up for the Federal Reserve known to economists as the Tinbergen problem--whether encouraging employment by keeping interest rates low might contribute to encouraging risky investment that could lead to a stock market bubble.

In mid-December, we published our geopolitical outlook for 2021. In this podcast episode, Phil Adler, our host, interviews Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez as they examine the five areas of concern discussed in the report. These issues are the return of the establishment, the anti-China alliance project, the Middle East, North Korea, and the return of inflation. In addition, we talk about...

What is the situation in housing? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the housing sector & the current state of housing in the U.S.

What is the outlook for inflation? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses inflation expectations and what measures Confluence relies on when considering inflation.

What will be Joe Biden's focus in his first term? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, examines what economic statistics suggest might, or should, be the focus of an economic recovery plan as the Biden administration takes office.

What is the impact of currency debasement? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the rare policy event of currency debasement.

What is the relationship between retail money market levels and equities? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the current level of assets held in retail money market funds and what that might mean for the stock market.

Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, explores the outlook for gold prices.

How far will long-term Treasury rates rise? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at interest rates through the prism of long-term Treasury rates.

Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the short-term impact of the election on equity markets.

Should we be concerned about inflation? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, addresses the question.

What are the investment implications of the EU's political dynamics? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on potential opportunities in the foreign equity space in the EU and U.K.

With the election looming, there is the potential for changes in foreign policy. Phil Adler, our host, interviews Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez as they address the future of American foreign policy. Bill discusses how a President Biden will conduct foreign policy, while Patrick examines what could be different with a second Trump term. This podcast relates to Weekly Geopolitical Report...

How has the pandemic affected consumption patterns? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the unusual nature of the current economic recovery, in particular, consumption patterns, and what this portends for U.S. economic policy and your investments.

What do inventory levels portend for the post-pandemic economy? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on current U.S. business inventory/sales ratio data in an attempt to anticipate future economic activity.

Who will be the biggest beneficiaries from the European recovery program? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, focuses on who might benefit the most from the current program.