Confluence Podcasts

What is the relationship between retail money market levels and equities? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the current level of assets held in retail money market funds and what that might mean for the stock market.

Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, explores the outlook for gold prices.

How far will long-term Treasury rates rise? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at interest rates through the prism of long-term Treasury rates.

Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the short-term impact of the election on equity markets.

Should we be concerned about inflation? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, addresses the question.

What are the investment implications of the EU's political dynamics? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on potential opportunities in the foreign equity space in the EU and U.K.

With the election looming, there is the potential for changes in foreign policy. Phil Adler, our host, interviews Bill O’Grady and Patrick Fearon-Hernandez as they address the future of American foreign policy. Bill discusses how a President Biden will conduct foreign policy, while Patrick examines what could be different with a second Trump term. This podcast relates to Weekly Geopolitical Report...

How has the pandemic affected consumption patterns? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the unusual nature of the current economic recovery, in particular, consumption patterns, and what this portends for U.S. economic policy and your investments.

What do inventory levels portend for the post-pandemic economy? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on current U.S. business inventory/sales ratio data in an attempt to anticipate future economic activity.

Who will be the biggest beneficiaries from the European recovery program? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, focuses on who might benefit the most from the current program.

What impact could the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg have on markets? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the impact of the death of the Supreme Court justice on financial markets.

How have U.S. and non-U.S. stock market sectors performed in different periods of dollar strength? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on how U.S. dollar strength affects U.S. stocks compared with foreign market stocks.

Is the dollar on the cusp of a bear market? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the possibility that we may be on the verge of a dollar bear market and what that might mean for foreign equities.

What is the impact of household debt service on discretionary income? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at how debt levels are impacting consumers' ability to spend and keep the economy afloat.

Is the additional unemployment insurance reducing employment? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, explores how the federal government's additional weekly benefit has affected unemployment.

Although the dollar remains the global reserve currency, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the role. On the domestic front, the dollar’s role has been positive for financial services and retailers, but it has been a persistent negative factor for import-competing industries and their workers. Foreign nations are increasingly uncomfortable with the U.S. weaponization of the dollar through fi...

How are money market funds acting? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the level of cash in retail money market funds.

What is behind the historic strength in gold prices? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the issue of strong gold prices.

Join Greg Ellston, Confluence Investment Management’s CIO of Asset Allocation, for a discussion of this quarter’s outlook and changes to the Asset Allocation portfolios. Greg begins with the macro backdrop, discussing the economy and policy. From there, he shows how this macro information leads to concrete adjustments in portfolios. Even in cases where no changes are made, the analysis that holds...

What is the risk if state and local governments have to cut spending? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses how the coronavirus crisis may affect state and local spending.

How is the pandemic affecting the labor market? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the pandemic's impact on the labor market, focusing primarily on older workers.

Is the Federal Reserve tightening policy? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this question and discusses whether there is evidence to indicate that the Fed is now tightening policy.

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this issue in more detail. This is the final episode looking at the 2020 election. In this episode, we handicap the election based on the tools of prediction, polling and decision markets. We examine the geopolitics of the election, focusing on what co...

Where does the extra liquidity flow? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this key inflation question, especially in light of the Fed's recent policy actions.

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this issue in more detail. This is the second of three podcast episodes that will look at the 2020 election. In this episode, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the issue of inequality and the rise of populism, the impact of social media, a...