Confluence Podcasts

What is the impact of inequality on monetary policy? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this question, primarily regarding racial inequality, in this week's episode.

Will the Fed implement negative interest rates? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, examines whether this event may occur.

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series, which concludes this week, examines this issue in more detail. This is the first of three podcast episodes that will look at the 2020 election. In this episode, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the concept of public goods, who benefits from them...

We continue to build on themes discussed in episode #11, “The Lessons of History,” in which we examined the effects of earlier pandemics. In this episode, we discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic will likely accelerate the reversal of the equality/efficiency cycle toward equality. Deglobalization is a key element of that shift. Although we believe the world has been steadily moving toward equality, th...

This episode examines the economic, market and social effects of earlier pandemics. Although the Black Death is mentioned, we focus on relatively recent events, including the Spanish influenza. One of our themes has been an impending reversal in the equality/efficiency cycle; in this podcast we discuss the potential that the pandemic could accelerate the shift to an equality phase.

This episode discusses the two updates to our 2020 Outlook, in which we have moved from “storm watch” to “storm warning.” In the podcast, we note the three factors that have put the U.S. into recession—the pandemic, rising financial stress and the oil crisis. Our current take is that the recession will be deep, the deepest since the Great Depression, but likely short, given the aggressive policy r...

This episode discusses Confluence’s asset allocation process. In earlier episodes, Bill O’Grady examined the importance of process when investors are making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, while Mark Keller talked about the process for managing the firm’s value-oriented equity strategies. In this podcast, Greg Ellston, Confluence’s CIO of Asset Allocation, discusses the investment team’...

This episode discusses Confluence’s 2020 Geopolitical Outlook. We examine the U.S. 2020 elections, the situation in Iran, China’s debt, the impact of demographics and North Korea. We also provide an update on emerging issues since we published the report in mid-December.

This seventh episode discusses Confluence’s 2020 Outlook, which is titled “Storm Watch.” We explain the key points of our outlook, including three factors where our forecast could go awry, and also provide an update on developments since the report was published in December.

This episode takes our discussion of process from the previous episode and shows how it works at Confluence. Financial decisions exist in a milieu of uncertainty, and thus a sound process is critical to successful equity selection. In this episode, Mark Keller, CEO and CIO of Confluence, details the firm’s process for selecting equities.

This episode examines the issue of making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. There are some situations of pure luck, like lotteries. There are others, like chess, which are pure skill. For most everything else in between, including investing, there is a mix of skill and luck in success. Under such conditions, investors are faced with the following problem: is an investment manager’s succes...

In this episode, we explain the equality/efficiency cycle, which is based on the seminal work of the economist Arthur Okun and the cycle work of Peter Turchin. The cycle explains how societies shift from focusing on equality, which usually includes policies favoring regulation, autarky, and high marginal taxes, to efficiency, where policies of deregulation, globalization, and low marginal tax rate...

This third episode of the series concludes the overview of Hegemonic Stability Theory and U.S. hegemony with an examination of the financial elements of hegemony. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the evolution of the reserve currency role and the costs and benefits of financial hegemony.

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady continues the discussion on Hegemonic Stability Theory and the unique aspects of American Hegemony.

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady discusses the origins, the roles, and the world affairs of Hegemonic Stability Theory.

Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke discuss the Q1 2016 Asset Allocation rebalancing.

Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke discuss two of the five topics for our 2016 outlook. (Part 2)

Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke discuss two of the five topics for our 2016 outlook.

Mark Keller, Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke look at the divergence of opinions among the doves on the FOMC.

Mark Keller, Bill O'Grady and Kaisa Stucke host Confluence's inaugural podcast. They discuss the state of the economy and whether there will be a return to trend or a continuation of slow growth.