Confluence Podcasts

Germany's recent reluctance to provide military equipment to Ukraine could be another sign that the country is uncomfortable with aligning itself too closely to the U.S. and Western allies. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses why maintaining a working relationship with Russia and China seems to be so important to Germany and how this may eventually play out geopolitically and in the i...

While many of the world's central banks have been pushing up interest rates to dampen inflation, the Bank of Japan has steadfastly refused to follow the crowd. But, there are signs that this behavior may be changing. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash explains why and how it may impact investors.

As the world divides into two main economic and geopolitical camps, one led by the U.S. and the other by China, the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency could eventually be challenged. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how the contrasting management styles of these two major economic blocs might impact and perhaps create opportunities for investors. [This...

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discuss their geopolitical outlook for 2023. Topics include the big picture of the post-Cold War deglobalization, China’s management of its emerging bloc, and the “race for space,” among other issues.

We can expect another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve coming up soon, and a majority of market analysts agree it wont be the last one in this series as the Fed focuses on reducing inflation. There are already some signs that the economy is beginning to slow because of these rate hikes, but what we don't know is when the slowdown might turn into a recession, how deep that recession might...

Thomas Wash, Confluence Staff Economist, joins host Phil Adler in discussing the firm’s most recent Business Cycle Report. This report details the Confluence Diffusion Index, an indicator of the business cycle. In this podcast, Phil and Thomas discuss the construction of the index and what it is signaling about the economy.

The U.S. Dollar Index reached a 20-year high in September and current conditions appear to favor continued strength in the greenback against foreign currencies. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses what's behind the dollar's strength and the consequences for investors.

The latest Communist Party Congress in China provides fresh evidence that investors can no longer rely on the Chinese marketplace to boost the profits of American companies and bolster the U.S. stock market. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to analyze just what happened at this recent event and what it might mean for investors.

The Social Security cost of living adjustment for next year is the biggest increase in 40 years, at +8.7%. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to discuss how this announcement affects the economy and investments.

A deglobalized world in the months and years ahead will probably equate to increasing impediments to global trade, along with rising international tensions and higher inflation. Regular listeners will know that Confluence expects that deglobalization will be a long-term backdrop for investment strategy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how he defines deglobalization, why h...

Where are bond yields headed? And what does this mean for bond investors? The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has been rising as the Fed increases rates, but it is not in line with Confluence's current estimates. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast this week to help us make sense of the current bond market.

The emergence of right-wing leaders in Great Britain and Italy adds a new layer of volatility and uncertainty to financial markets in Europe and around the world. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez offers analysis and advice for investors. While there are notable differences between these separate political events, Patrick identifies the key similarities and discusses where thes...

Why is gold performance underwhelming in the face of high inflation? We're hearing this question from investors, so Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady takes a look at gold this week and adds some color to the research discussed in our associated written report.

Recent dramatic and surprising gains by Ukraine in its war with Russia have brought political and investment implications. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join this week's episode to discuss updates on how the war has progressed along with its impact on the ongoing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in light of Russia's weakened p...

The Federal Reserve has made no secret of its intent to curb inflation by means of interest rate hikes, even if economic pain is the result. The Fed's hope, of course, is that any slowdown or recession will be mild. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today to discuss why present Fed policy is more likely to lead to a deeper recession than the stock market currently anticip...

Recession fears can greatly impact investments, so it makes sense that financial markets are focused today on when, and if, a recession might occur. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady offers his thoughts.

Might food be weaponized in a deglobalized world with at least two sharply divided political and economic groupings, one dominated by the U.S. and the other by China? Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the latest in his series of reports on how deglobalization could impact investors.

When the July Consumer Price Index was released earlier this month, the stock market rallied on hopes that inflation has peaked and the Fed might be less inclined to raise interest rates. Was it a case of over-optimism? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady reviews the numbers that were so well-received by financial markets and the arguments on both sides of the theory that inflation has...

We return to a theme familiar to anyone who has been listening to us for a while--the decline of globalization and the implications for investors. The vehicle for our discussion today is a book that appeared for a while this year on the New York Times non-fiction bestseller list, titled "The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization" by Peter Zeihan. Confluence...

Bill O’Grady, Chief Market Strategist, joins host Phil Adler in looking at the second update of Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on the impact of the Ukraine war and the financial markets’ discounting of a potential recession next year.

What do current levels of household debt portend for the economy and for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us to discuss the path consumer debt followed to arrive at the level where it is today and where it fits in the investment equation.

The investment world seems more unstable these days as COVID and the Ukraine war are causing major shifts in economies and contributing to political crises for some top U.S. allies. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez examines the recent political events in Japan, the U.K., and Italy and discusses their common features and implications for investors.

For most of us, the current state of the economy is a huge factor in our investment decisions, but correctly parsing the economic data can be challenging. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins today's podcast with a warning: don't be fooled by a low unemployment rate. It may not reflect a healthy labor market.

If one keeps up with the news, they will hear reports of widening income and wealth inequality in the U.S. According to the Census Bureau, in 2020, the top 20% of the U.S. population earned over half of all U.S. income, and the top 5% earned nearly a quarter of all income. This week's geopolitical report looks at how the pandemic has affected inequality in America. Confluence Market Strategy Inter...

We've heard a lot about the challenges for the U.S. Federal Reserve as it tries to strike a balance between sustaining economic growth and battling inflation. The European Central Bank is also engaged in a challenging balancing act, trying to keep sovereign bond yields among its country members in line with each other as the ECB prepares to raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade....