Confluence Podcasts

The yield curve is inverted, and recession is in the forecast. Recent history suggests investment managers facing these circumstances nearly always recommend longer-term bonds within the fixed income space, but Confluence Investment Management says this time is different. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to explain why.

A recent agreement brokered by China represents a warming of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady says this event is noteworthy on several levels. For one thing, it alters the international diplomacy gameboard, and investors may want to keep a close eye on how oil prices react.

Gains in the U.S. labor market by Black Americans have easily outdistanced gains by white workers, at least by one measure, and those gains continue even as the Federal Reserve persists in raising interest rates. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses the history of minority employment in the U.S., what to make of the latest numbers, and whether they present an accurate reading of the ec...

Access to information has a lot of benefits: it translates to power in the business world and can give investors a leg up. The same rule applies on a grander scale in the world of international relations. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how access to information is a tool the US is using to influence world events and why this is an important subject for investors.

The next big challenge for the banking sector may be tied to commercial real estate. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins this week's podcast to explain why and prepare investors.

Northern Ireland has been a thorn in the side of relations between Great Britain and the European Union for some time. But a recent agreement creates hope that a breakthrough is within sight, with potentially positive ramifications for the British pound and British stocks. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to give us some background on the long conflict and bring us up-to-da...

Turmoil in the financial sector has complicated life for the Federal Reserve. Already facing the challenge of fine-tuning its rate policy between fighting inflation and over-tightening, the Fed may now be compelled to focus, to a greater extent, on protecting the banking system and the economy. It does seem like a tall order. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady explores possible resolu...

China appears to be emerging every day as a greater military threat to the US. We may be looking at a deepening arms race that not only elevates US security concerns but also creates new boundaries for investors. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez outlines China's military progress in just the past two years, and the numbers are sobering.

Investors, be aware: interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may not be enough, on their own, to subdue inflation. The Fed might need some help. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses other key inflation battlefronts that deserve our attention.

Bill O’Grady, Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist, sits down with Phil Adler to discuss the subtleties of inflation, specifically, an examination of inflation as the rate of change in a price index and how investors, consumers, and firms can be “fooled” into accepting modest rises in inflation that still reflect weaker purchasing power. This podcast expands upon a recent Asset Allocation Bi-Weekl...

Confluence has been suggesting for some time now that the world is in the process of fracturing into two competing economic and geopolitical blocs, one led by China and the other by the US. If this is true, will the dollar remain the world's reserve currency, and should we be alarmed if it doesn't? Should our long-term investment strategy change as a result? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill...

Any decision by the FOMC to pause or reverse its current journey toward higher interest rates could trigger a sharp rally in stocks. The question investors want to know is, when? The answer probably depends on a number of factors, including how the Fed measures inflation and the timing/severity of any recession. Confluence spends a lot of time studying these issues and one conclusion the firm has...

Computers. Banking. Healthcare. Transportation. These are only a few of the industries and social services which rely these days on semiconductors. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses their importance, how the need to secure an adequate supply drives many US foreign policy decisions and can shape geopolitical events, and where investment opportunities might exist. 

Believing that the secular downtrend in long-term Treasury yields is ending, Confluence has shortened its recommended duration in its fixed income allocations. To accompany the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly report published on January 30, 2023, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss why the firm has reached this conclusion about the fixed income markets.

Confluence's 2023 economic and market forecast leaves no doubt that this will be a recession year. In our published report from December, we discuss data that support this hypothesis and how investors can navigate what's shaping up to be a volatile period in the market. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady, co-author of the report, joins the podcast to examine some of its key points.

Germany's recent reluctance to provide military equipment to Ukraine could be another sign that the country is uncomfortable with aligning itself too closely to the U.S. and Western allies. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses why maintaining a working relationship with Russia and China seems to be so important to Germany and how this may eventually play out geopolitically and in the i...

While many of the world's central banks have been pushing up interest rates to dampen inflation, the Bank of Japan has steadfastly refused to follow the crowd. But, there are signs that this behavior may be changing. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash explains why and how it may impact investors.

As the world divides into two main economic and geopolitical camps, one led by the U.S. and the other by China, the dollar's status as the world's dominant currency could eventually be challenged. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how the contrasting management styles of these two major economic blocs might impact and perhaps create opportunities for investors. [This...

Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discuss their geopolitical outlook for 2023. Topics include the big picture of the post-Cold War deglobalization, China’s management of its emerging bloc, and the “race for space,” among other issues.

We can expect another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve coming up soon, and a majority of market analysts agree it wont be the last one in this series as the Fed focuses on reducing inflation. There are already some signs that the economy is beginning to slow because of these rate hikes, but what we don't know is when the slowdown might turn into a recession, how deep that recession might...

Thomas Wash, Confluence Staff Economist, joins host Phil Adler in discussing the firm’s most recent Business Cycle Report. This report details the Confluence Diffusion Index, an indicator of the business cycle. In this podcast, Phil and Thomas discuss the construction of the index and what it is signaling about the economy.

The U.S. Dollar Index reached a 20-year high in September and current conditions appear to favor continued strength in the greenback against foreign currencies. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses what's behind the dollar's strength and the consequences for investors.

The latest Communist Party Congress in China provides fresh evidence that investors can no longer rely on the Chinese marketplace to boost the profits of American companies and bolster the U.S. stock market. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to analyze just what happened at this recent event and what it might mean for investors.

The Social Security cost of living adjustment for next year is the biggest increase in 40 years, at +8.7%. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to discuss how this announcement affects the economy and investments.

A deglobalized world in the months and years ahead will probably equate to increasing impediments to global trade, along with rising international tensions and higher inflation. Regular listeners will know that Confluence expects that deglobalization will be a long-term backdrop for investment strategy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how he defines deglobalization, why h...