Confluence Podcasts

Are higher interest rates bearish for risk assets? This may seem to be an easy question, but perhaps the answer is not so simple. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to broaden our perspective.

Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady, Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Staff Economist Thomas Wash discuss the firm’s mid-year geopolitical update. This edition’s theme is “Welcome to the Polycrisis.” Confluence’s macro team lays out the large number of geopolitical concerns that could affect markets for the rest of 2023. This podcast accompanies the in-depth Bi-Weekly Ge...

Economic data lately can seem unusually confusing. Even though inflation has raised the cost of living significantly compared to two years ago, the economy continues to grow and the unemployment rate remains low even as some big companies announce job cuts. And while economic indicators point to a slowdown in the months ahead, the stock market doesn't seem to believe it. Confluence Market Strategi...

We may be getting a glimpse of what artificial intelligence (AI) can do and the tasks it can perform...but we may be slower to understand exactly HOW it does so. Becoming familiar, at least on a basic level, of the HOW might help us understand AI's potential and limitations and might even guide us toward proper investment decisions.

The S&P 500 has performed very well in 2023, but market internals paint a less healthy picture. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us to discuss the stock market's uneven performance so far this year and what this may portend.

For many years now, the need for oil has been a primary driver of foreign policy, not just for the U.S. but for nations around the world. For the U.S., a dominant dollar has been a key tool in the past to assure an adequate supply of oil, but today the energy landscape is changing. To accompany the Bi-Weekly Geopolitical Report published on June 12, 2023, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins...

Underinvesting can have serious long-term consequences, and in the U.S., government underinvestment in one key area is a worrisome trend. Investors might be surprised by just how much government spending contributes to overall GDP. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez takes a look at the latest numbers. 

A new national security law in China is fresh evidence that the global investment environment is changing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how investors can expect this to play out and the potential winners and losers.

New home sales have been trending higher lately, even with mortgage rates rising rapidly in recent months. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to explain why and discuss whether it's worthwhile to mine this trend for investment opportunities.

For almost eight decades now, investors have faced a risk that the world's great powers could come into conflict and unleash devastating nuclear war. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses China's new efforts to build up its nuclear arsenal and why this will likely produce not only risks but also opportunities. 

The yield curve is inverted, and recession is in the forecast. Recent history suggests investment managers facing these circumstances nearly always recommend longer-term bonds within the fixed income space, but Confluence Investment Management says this time is different. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to explain why.

A recent agreement brokered by China represents a warming of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady says this event is noteworthy on several levels. For one thing, it alters the international diplomacy gameboard, and investors may want to keep a close eye on how oil prices react.

Gains in the U.S. labor market by Black Americans have easily outdistanced gains by white workers, at least by one measure, and those gains continue even as the Federal Reserve persists in raising interest rates. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses the history of minority employment in the U.S., what to make of the latest numbers, and whether they present an accurate reading of the ec...

Access to information has a lot of benefits: it translates to power in the business world and can give investors a leg up. The same rule applies on a grander scale in the world of international relations. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses how access to information is a tool the US is using to influence world events and why this is an important subject for investors.

The next big challenge for the banking sector may be tied to commercial real estate. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins this week's podcast to explain why and prepare investors.

Northern Ireland has been a thorn in the side of relations between Great Britain and the European Union for some time. But a recent agreement creates hope that a breakthrough is within sight, with potentially positive ramifications for the British pound and British stocks. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to give us some background on the long conflict and bring us up-to-da...

Turmoil in the financial sector has complicated life for the Federal Reserve. Already facing the challenge of fine-tuning its rate policy between fighting inflation and over-tightening, the Fed may now be compelled to focus, to a greater extent, on protecting the banking system and the economy. It does seem like a tall order. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady explores possible resolu...

China appears to be emerging every day as a greater military threat to the US. We may be looking at a deepening arms race that not only elevates US security concerns but also creates new boundaries for investors. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez outlines China's military progress in just the past two years, and the numbers are sobering.

Investors, be aware: interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve may not be enough, on their own, to subdue inflation. The Fed might need some help. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses other key inflation battlefronts that deserve our attention.

Bill O’Grady, Confluence’s Chief Market Strategist, sits down with Phil Adler to discuss the subtleties of inflation, specifically, an examination of inflation as the rate of change in a price index and how investors, consumers, and firms can be “fooled” into accepting modest rises in inflation that still reflect weaker purchasing power. This podcast expands upon a recent Asset Allocation Bi-Weekl...

Confluence has been suggesting for some time now that the world is in the process of fracturing into two competing economic and geopolitical blocs, one led by China and the other by the US. If this is true, will the dollar remain the world's reserve currency, and should we be alarmed if it doesn't? Should our long-term investment strategy change as a result? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill...

Any decision by the FOMC to pause or reverse its current journey toward higher interest rates could trigger a sharp rally in stocks. The question investors want to know is, when? The answer probably depends on a number of factors, including how the Fed measures inflation and the timing/severity of any recession. Confluence spends a lot of time studying these issues and one conclusion the firm has...

Computers. Banking. Healthcare. Transportation. These are only a few of the industries and social services which rely these days on semiconductors. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash discusses their importance, how the need to secure an adequate supply drives many US foreign policy decisions and can shape geopolitical events, and where investment opportunities might exist. 

Believing that the secular downtrend in long-term Treasury yields is ending, Confluence has shortened its recommended duration in its fixed income allocations. To accompany the Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly report published on January 30, 2023, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss why the firm has reached this conclusion about the fixed income markets.

Confluence's 2023 economic and market forecast leaves no doubt that this will be a recession year. In our published report from December, we discuss data that support this hypothesis and how investors can navigate what's shaping up to be a volatile period in the market. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady, co-author of the report, joins the podcast to examine some of its key points.