Confluence Podcasts

The rising federal budget deficit begs a key question with major implications for investors. How painful will it be for the government to finance all that debt or will there be enough buyers of all those new US Treasurys to prevent an ugly turn for the markets? Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how fixed income investors might navi...

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.

As the US slowly withdraws from its status as the world's policeman and as countries realign into separate economic and political blocs, both the strategies and the costs of preventing war change. As the task of preventing war becomes more difficult, the risks change as well. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth discuss these i...

It may come as a bit of a surprise that oil production in the U.S. has reached a record high. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for this surge in production and the impact on prices and investments.

The creation of the U.S. Space Force in 2019 did not come out of the blue but recognized a new reality. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth asserts that investors should pay attention.

A sometimes overlooked financial report may give us insight about the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.  Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain.

The war in Ukraine seems to have entered a new phase. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez considers what investors might do to prepare for a range of possible outcomes.

Confluence's official 2024 Outlook anticipates a slowing U.S. economy and continued risk of recession. As the title of the report indicates, economic activity with slowing momentum is more susceptible to a negative shock. The co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez and Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash, join the podcast to examine the main themes of their e...

Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2024. The first issue discussed is titled “the jungle grows back,” which could also be considered the overall theme of the report. As U.S. hegemony wanes, long-forgotten conflicts are reigniting, thus increasing global turmoil and forcing th...

For stock investors, the initial rally was impressive, but does the Federal Reserve's recent decision to pause interest rate hikes signal the market's advance has room to grow further? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to tell us the answer is a bit complicated.

With the latest quarterly earnings reports now in the books, now might be a good time to step back and look at earnings from a different angle as we try to anticipate future stock market performance. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady has been doing just that and joins us today to discuss a chart that might help us.

Our government's foreign policy can seriously impact our investment accounts, but because these policy decisions often involve difficult and  immediate trade-offs, it can be challenging for us as investors to recognize and take advantage of long-term trends. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to offer a framework that can guide us.

The annual Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2024 was announced in October and Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us today to discuss the potential impact of this 3.2% hike on spending, the economy, and the federal deficit.

The conflict in the Middle East has plenty of investment implications. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez examines how the current fighting might play out and what it means for the markets.

Widely accepted rules that have for many years defined the behavior of long-term bonds might be changing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins us today to suggest why savvy investors might want to revisit some of these time-worn formulas.

As investors, we can sometimes be sidetracked by news events that seem huge at the time they happen. Many times we can make wiser decisions by stepping back to survey the bigger picture. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins us today to help us do just that.

Financial markets can be extremely sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Perhaps not so much what the Fed has done, but what it might do. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady examines how the changing composition of the Federal Open Market Committee, which votes on monetary policy, may offer some clues about its future actions.

Once again, oil is being wielded as a weapon, not only to boost revenue for producers, but also to achieve geopolitical goals. Where does it go from here? Can we see an end to this particular cycle of production cuts and rising prices? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady addresses these questions.

When we began the year, there was a general consensus that a recession was near. So far, the economy appears to have avoided a downturn. Over the past few months, several Confluence Asset Allocation Bi-Weekly reports have covered various aspects regarding why that is, and this week Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to recap these reports and discuss any changes that...

This week's episode examines the apparent assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a member of Putin's inner circle and head of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary operation. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the rumors surrounding Prigozhin's demise, including the likely culprits and their potential motives, and the broader ramifications of this situation.

In recent quarters, investors have focused heavily on issues such as consumer price inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.  Now, however, rising fiscal deficits and congressional bickering over the federal debt have brought the attention back to fiscal policy. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to discuss the government's recent fiscal trends and...

Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez sits down with Phil Adler to discuss Great Power competition and the economics of national defense. In the absence of Great Power competition, defense spending is usually concentrated on defense companies. However, under conditions of Great Power competition, a “whole-of-economy” approach to national defense tends to evolve. Civilian companies...

A U.S. recession due to higher interest rates no longer seems imminent as the rate of inflation has been falling and the unemployment rate is near a 60-year low. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to discuss one of the main reasons we have avoided a recession so far – the tight labor market – and whether we can expect labor conditions to remain tight in the months ah...

Fixation on headline economic numbers can lead to inaccurate conclusions. A recent example is the performance of major stock indexes, which it turns out has been greatly influenced lately by a very small number of stocks. Overreliance on headline numbers can also be costly for investors. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins us today to dig deeper into one of our favorite headline numbers:...

In Confluence's Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook, we recognize China's youth unemployment and China's debt problem as two major issues for investors to keep tabs on in the months ahead. But there's one significant negative trend in China which may be an underlying cause of many other problems the country faces and could be beyond its ability to solve. In this episode, Confluence Market Strategist Pat...