Confluence Podcasts

For investors, it can be pretty easy to overreact to day-to-day market moving events. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how a long-term roadmap can help investors resist emotional decisions, and why recognizing global megatrends is a key part of the process at Confluence.

Large cap stocks aren't what they used to be. Confluence Investment Management Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why investors who are looking for dividends may need to refocus.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings, takes listeners through the investment team's decisions. 

Is a strong US dollar a good or bad thing for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses prospects for the dollar in a fracturing world and explains the process the Confluence macro team uses to measure the strength of the US dollar.

One of the challenges for fixed income investors is figuring out what part of the yield curve is most attractive and carries the least risk at any particular time. Some market observers who worry about overstimulation of the economy are pointing an accusatory finger at the US Treasury. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to unravel the various points of view and ex...

As the Federal Reserve delayed interest rate cuts this year, signs of impatience have become more evident. For one thing, we've read and heard opinions in recent months questioning the current working relationship between the Fed and the federal government known as central bank independence. The bottom line seems to be that the Fed might be more responsive to the desires of the people if the execu...

China's effort to control the South China Sea and push back against the Philippines is at the top of Confluence's list of potentially game-changing geopolitical events for the rest of the year.  In this episode, Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth makes the case that understanding the motivations of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. may help investors prepare for a range of outcom...

A traditional formula to predict gold prices no longer seems to work. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses why investors should take notice. 

A tilt to the right in European politics has markets taking notice. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins host Phil Adler to give an overview and discuss investment opportunities that may have been created as a result.

Small cap stocks may be poised for a rebound. Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to explain why.

Welcome to the Mid-Year Outlook from Confluence Investment Management. Several Confluence macro analysts join the podcast to discuss this report: Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, and Associate Market Strategists Thomas Wash and Daniel Ortwerth. Some of the themes discussed this week will be familiar to regular listeners of our bi-...

A comparison between copper and gold prices has in the past been a reasonably reliable predictor of bond yields, but it looks like this indicator no longer works. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain why this is so.

The South China Sea is yet another geopolitical danger zone in a rapidly dividing world that demands investor attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the history of a territorial dispute that has the potential to erupt.

Inflation in the United States may be cooling somewhat, but we are still not close to achieving the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2%. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the 2% target might change and how markets might react to that.

Immigration is certainly one of the top political issues that Americans are considering this election year. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to explain how investors might fold this issue, with all its complexities, into their investment strategies.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast for this recap is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee.

As the conflict in Gaza and the protests command our attention, a better understanding of the deep divisions in the Middle East might increase our confidence as we make key investment decisions. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins host Phil Adler to help us gain perspective.

The changing face of war makes it difficult for investors to identify exactly when war begins, when it ends, and when is the right time to implement a war-time investment strategy. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth offers some guidance.

The recent rally in the price of uranium appears to be more than just a flash in the pan. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on a major reason for this development that may be somewhat overlooked.

The Japanese Nikkei 225 stock index was among the best performing in the world in 2023 and recently reached an all-time high. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the reasons for the surge and whether there is room to grow from here.

Ukraine, Gaza, and Taiwan aren't the only hotspots in the world. In South America, oil-rich Venezuela is threatening its much smaller neighbor Guyana, which recently came into major oil reserves of its own. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to unravel the history of this dispute, discuss what's at stake for the US, and why investors should pay attention.

Sometimes words can be just as powerful or even more so than actions. Just consider the Federal Reserve. Fed officials can greatly influence investor behavior by the words they speak or write. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how the Federal Reserve may be employing the spoken or written word, specifically with its forward guidance tool, to create a ra...

Could the defense industry, at some point, challenge technology for stock market leadership? Members from the Confluence macro team discuss why the rebirth of US nuclear deterrence policy appears to be a game changer on many levels.

In October 2023, the Asset Allocation Committee introduced an ETF focused on uranium and uranium producers into its mid-cap equity exposure as part of their regular quarterly update. The price of that ETF has surged since Confluence bought it, adding to the returns of the firm's Asset Allocation portfolios to date. Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins the podcast to explain what...

China's economic problems seem to be numerous. They include falling consumer prices, a struggling stock market, plunging property values, sluggish growth, and rising debt. Is current Chinese leadership to blame for these problems, or is it something deeper? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss why addressing this question is important.