Confluence Podcasts

Are Trump tariffs working as the administration expected? Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to unpack the Trump strategy and give us some advice about dealing with extreme market volatility and risk.

It might be time to take a new look at the relationship between inflation and stock market performance. The old adage is that inflation is bad for stocks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth suggests that it might be wiser today to view equities as an inflation hedge.

Many stock markets in The Middle East are growing in market cap, and investors are paying attention. Confluence Associate Market Strategist, Daniel Ortwerth, joins Phil Adler to take a closer look at one of the recent standouts, United Arab Emirates, and to tackle the question, is it the right time to invest there?

Mortgage rates in the neighborhood of 7% are dampening housing demand leading into what is normally a busy time of year for sales. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why long-term interest rates have been slow to come down even after the Federal Reserve lowered short-term rates.

 In an increasingly confrontational world, you can add sanctions to what seems like an expanding field of investment risks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to help investors identify and respond to sanctions risk. 

The initial Trump tariffs did have an impact on financial markets, but the takeaway might not be what many investors expect. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how we might fold what we've learned so far about the Trump tariffs into our investment strategies. 

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Listeners might be surprised to learn which foreign stock markets are growing the fastest. Growth is not necessarily a reason to invest in these markets, but they might deserve a second look, and Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to provide just that.

Investors looking for the next big opportunity might do best by not straying too far afield. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss why the US economy and US stocks still look plenty attractive.

American foreign policy and trade policy are likely to experience major changes under the new Trump administration. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on the potential upsides and downsides of these changes and how they might impact investments.

For years, US Treasury bonds have been viewed as a safe-haven place for investors to hold cash, both to stabilize portfolios and await future opportunities. But perhaps that is no longer the case. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss whether the Magnificent 7 stocks have become a legitimate safe haven.

The regime change in Syria has sent shock ways across the Middle East. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to look at what might be going on beneath the surface and help investors understand the potential impact on portfolios.

Confluence's official 2025 Outlook anticipates continued-but-moderating economic growth, sticky inflation, and limited interest rate cuts, which will lay the ground work for the asset class returns in the new year. One of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, joins the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and how investors can ut...

In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2025. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including American hegemony, China's economic growth, and the continuing problems in the Middle East. 

When one looks at the total world of investing, it makes sense that a high amount held in money market funds might subtract from total assets invested in stocks, and stock valuations might shrink as a result. But, clearly, that equation has not been working lately. Bill O'Grady, Advisory Director of Market Strategy at Confluence, discusses what this might portend for the stock market. 

 How did the decisive November election results impact the bond market? Contrary to expectations, voters rendered a quick and clear outcome. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady discusses the post-election environment for bonds.

Important developments in the Ukraine war this year include Ukraine's invasion of the Kursk region of Russia. Another is the subject of this week's discussion:  North Korea's agreement to send troops to Russia to help in its war effort. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to explain why investors should take notice.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2024, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings...

There are several ways we could approach the subject of tariffs - a major topic of discussion in the recent US election season. Tariffs can be seen as both a geopolitical and economic tool. Geopolitical because they could penalize imports from our main rival China, and economic because tariffs might boost US domestic industries that are currently threatened by cheap imports. However, tariffs also...

We're talking big numbers today, US national debt numbers. Back in July, the Treasury department reported that our national debt exceeded $35 trillion for the first time, and at the current pace will top $56 trillion by 2034. It's hard to get your mind around numbers like these, and it's no wonder many commentators are sounding the alarm. Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adle...

The inflation adjustment for 2025 Social Security benefits has been announced, but do the financial markets even care? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact on markets and portfolios.

National security agendas might never be the same after pagers and walkie-talkies mysteriously exploded in the hands of Hezbollah militants about a month ago. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady and Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explore how this groundbreaking attack will likely lead to costly changes in global supply chains and how investment strategies...

Does the recent un-inversion of the yield curve create an opportunity on the long end for bond investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to take a look.

As election day nears, this week's report explores foreign policy differences between the two US presidential candidates, which could have investment implications. Confluence Associate Market Strategists Daniel Ortwerth and Thomas Wash discuss those differences and what they could mean for investors.

With the presidential election coming up, we will consider a timely topic this week: Does the stock market prefer one of the two major political parties? Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to take us on a trip through recent history.