Confluence Podcasts

Are tariffs working the way the Trump planned? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to focus on the purpose of the Trump tariffs and discuss what investors should pay attention to in the weeks and months ahead.

In our August Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, examine the recent underperformance of small caps and emphasize the importance of focusing on quality companies. They review shifts in Confluence’s asset allocation models amid abrupt policy changes and share key lessons learned. Bill and Mark also consider the outlook for stablecoins, the decline i...

Can we rely on government statistics to help guide our investment decisions? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss the recent revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics data that raised doubts about the economy and prompted the president to fire a top official.

The race between the United States and China for military superiority might be a lot more complicated and worrisome than the headline numbers suggest. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler with an update on US and Chinese defense spending and why it matters for investors.

Are investors right to downplay the risk of recession? It certainly looks like the markets have been acting that way this year. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler on this day in early August to discuss whether we might have less to fear than we traditionally have assumed.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

This year's turmoil in the Middle East appears to strengthen the case for investment strategies that Confluence Investment Management has maintained over recent months. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to discuss implications of the Israel-Iran conflict.

The US Treasury is looking for answers as it eyes higher interest rates in an environment of uncertain demand for rising US debt. Confluence Associate Market Analyst and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why stablecoins, a cryptocurrency, may be a partial solution.

In this Mid-Year 2025 report subtitled "Searching for the Endgames," Confluence analysts join Phil Adler to take a fresh look at key geopolitical trends and identify potential opportunities for investors.

In this month’s episode, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, share their market outlooks and what they view as the biggest threat to the markets over the next three years. They also address whether shifting government policies influence Confluence’s investment process, what tariffs mean for Wall Street, the economic impact of birth rates and immigration, an...

Tax and spending bills always have the potential to shake up the financial markets. One provision inside this year's bill gets some special attention in this week's report. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and certified business economist, Thomas Wash, joins Phil Adler to discuss Section 899, also known as the revenge tax.

It may be logical to assume that economically speaking as Germany goes, so goes Europe. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler with a profile of Germany's new chancellor and what investors can expect from his leadership.

The economy and the stock market have been resilient in the face of soft looking economic data, a troubling bond market, and warnings by economists that a recession is drawing ever closer. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and certified business economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why, so far, this is an economy that won't die.

Europe's potential as an investment destination appears bright but realizing that potential depends on how the continent responds to the new geopolitics and the military threat from Russia. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon Hernandez joins Phil Adler to focus on a key region where Europe is vulnerable, the Baltics. 

In our new podcast series, Confluence will address your most frequent, thought-provoking, and insightful questions, drawing on our years of experience and expertise. The inaugural episode features Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, as they discuss a range of timely topics from changes in the 10-year Treasury to global defense spending in the current geopol...

The recent sharp sell off in Japanese bonds has worrisome implications for investors across the globe. Confluence Associate Market Analyst Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss where this might be heading.

The US attention paid to Greenland, which has created headlines recently, should not be ignored by investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler today to discuss why Greenland matters.

President Trump has withdrawn his threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for the time being, but the administration continues to criticize the Fed for postponing interest rate cuts and for its quantitative tightening policy, which increases the amount of bonds available in the market and thus requires higher interest rates to attract buyers. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Th...

The race between the United States and China for military superiority will continue to have major implications for investors. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Daniel Ortwerth joins Phil Adler to give us an update on the US-China military balance of power.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings...

Oh, what a difference one quarter can make! The mood has certainly changed on Wall Street since the beginning of the year as investors seem to be losing confidence in US economic growth. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez reminds us what the market expectations were like back in January, examines the current evidence of what may be ahead for US investments, and discusses t...

Tariffs may be the most noticeable but they're not the only strategy in the economic conflict between the US and China. In this episode, Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how export controls are amplifying the conflict and the message for investors.

The recent outperformance of European stocks has been noteworthy. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this may only be the beginning.

Should the current strain in traditional US alliances prompt investors to consider an immediate strategy adjustment? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to answer that question and explain the detailed approach Confluence takes to evaluate this issue.

It appears a slowdown now underway may be part of the Trump administration's economic plan. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses why investors should pay close attention to how well any slowdown is managed.