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Derek Moore is joined once again by ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to discuss why volatility remains high. How the VIX Index stays elevated even after the initial reasons subside. What is driving the market pricing of the S&P 500 Index and how it compares to prior 10-year periods. Plus, comparing this high oil price period to prior ones on an inflation adjusted basis.   What are driving retur...

Derek Moore explains in easy-to-understand terms what risk parity strategies are. Plus, he explains Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio and Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio. How standard deviation is used and how some versions use leverage including futures to create risk parity weighted exposure.   What are risk parity strategies? What are All Weather Portfolios? What is the Permanent Portfolio?...

Derek Moore relays how markets have done historically around geopolitical events. Plus, how being hedged allows investors to stay in the market. Interesting stats on markets 1-year later after drawdowns. It may surprise you. What the latest Russia/Ukraine situation means for inflation and interest rates.   How markets perform around geopolitical events Does the Russia conflict increase inflation r...

Derek Moore explores how stock and bonds have done after the Fed starts raising rates. Is there any difference between when they raise greater than 1% compared to less than 1%? Why people should be surprised in March when February CPI numbers are released. More debate about what caused inflation. Plus, stocks continue to rerate with multiples contracting while earnings are up year to date.   Exami...

Jay Pestrichelli, CEO ZEGA Financial, is back with Derek to say congratulations to our government debt reaching $30 Trillion! What are the ramifications of high debt levels? What the interest on that debt could be if rates rise? Does this put pressure on the Fed NOT to raise rates so much? Plus, interest in hedging at the highest levels since April of 2020. Is that a sign of contrarian optimism fo...

Derek Moore discusses how the recent selloff is due to a multiple contraction rather than an earnings one. How 2021 and now so far in Q1 22 stocks are rerating by shrinking the multiple. Plus, what the shape of the yield curve is telling us in light of expected Fed action on interest rates.   Driver of stock prices multiple declines vs earnings expansion PE Ratios coming down on a forward basis Ea...

Derek Moore discusses how markets have experienced selloffs but many times wind up positive at the end of the year. Plus, answering questions around small caps and the Russell 2000 Index ETF IWM PE Ratio. How the index differs from others in not including negative earnings in the computation. Then, watching latest inventory data reported this week.   Intrayear stock market selloffs vs end of year...

Derek Moore discusses the recent market selloff while giving some perspective around this and others. Why is everyone waiting on pins and needles for the Jan 26th Jerome Powell Fed press conference. Plus, how markets retracing means valuations are coming back down, so long as earnings remain strong. Netflix meets on top line, and beats on bottom line but the streat was not a fan of guidance on sub...

Derek Moore is joined once again by ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli to give a few contrarian takes on markets. What are the inverse of obvious trades when inflation is perceived to be continuing? How commodities have run but gold has disappointed. Plus, why the Fed raising rates might increase costs. Yup, that's contrarian but we'll explain on the podcast.   Good news bad news market reactions Contraria...

Derek Moore explains what was in those Fed minutes released last week that stirred up selling in the markets. What does balance sheet normalization mean? When are forecasters expecting the first interest rate hike? Is the Fed worried about the yield curve?   Why did the Fed Minutes release rile markets Increasing the probability of the normalization of rate policy Removing accommodation by reducin...

Derek Moore reviews asset classes like stocks, bonds, bitcoin, and gold. What investors thought would be a no brainer with higher inflation didn't work. Plus, Derek goes back ten years and reads some bearish doom and gloom predictions for crashes that never came true. How wrong where they and why you maybe shouldn't listen to them. Instead just invest but be hedged.   2021 Inflation hedges like go...

Jay Pestrichelli joins Derek Moore to review some 2022 market predictions. You shouldn't trade of these! Make sure to listen in a year to see what they got right, and what they got wrong.   2022 S&P 500 Index Year End Predictions 2022 Inflation 2022 Earnings on the S&P 500 Index Will the S&P 500 see multiple expansion, earnings growth, or both? Plus, Bitcoin, Oil, and Gold. Will there be a recessi...

Derek Moore responds to market pundits making 2022 predictions where they examine whether stock prices will see moves diven by changes in earnings vs PE multiples expanding. Also covered will be effect share buybacks have on earnings per share EPS. Then he compares Amazon and Apple forward multiples and share counts.   PE Ratio EPS Earnings per share Calculate Market Cap Multiple expansion versus...

Derek Moore reviews the range of potential moves the Federal Reserve may take given rising inflation. Will the Fed reduce their monthly purchases? What does the Fed Fund probability tracker show the market is expecting interest rates to be? What about the trillions of dollars the Fed is doing in the Overnight Reverse Repo Market?   Monthly Fed purchases of MBS and Treasuries $1.5 Trillion in Overn...

Jay Pestrichelli is back to co-host with Derek where they simplify risk measures like Alpha and Sharpe. Then they discuss the market drop that started during the short post Thanksgiving day session. Later an inflation check in, corporate profit margins at multi-decade highs, the yield curve flattening, and oil prices.   Markets pullback from highs Market valuations Alpha explained Sharpe Ratio exp...

Derek reviews some key market themes including things to watch on corporate earnings, profit margins and more. Then he discusses the current situation around oil rig counts and inventories versus demand. Later Derek talks about how government responses such as lockdowns can impact the economy.   S&P 500 Earnings Profit Margins at Decade Highs Multiple expansion Earnings expansion Difference betwee...

Derek is back to review data put out by OSAM showing periods of severe inflation, high inflation, and how stocks have done historically. How have bonds done during periods of high inflation? How common is severe or high inflation?   Severe Inflation High Inflatipon Moderate Inflation or Fed Target Inflation Low Inflation Deflation How to calculate real returns after inflation Stocks and bonds perf...

Derek is back to discuss the recent media reports of highest inflation in 30 years. What is true and what isn't? Plus he takes a deeper dive into inflation components, inflation sentiment effecting consumer beheavior, and sticky vs flexible inflation.   Inflation at 30 year highs Today's inflation vs late seventies and early eighties inflation Flexible inflation (CPI) vs Sticky inflation (CPI) Wha...

Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, is back with Derek to discuss Nassim Talib's comments that Bitcoin is another Tulip Bubble. Plus, the Fed announced a taper so now what? How companies putting Bitcoin on their balance sheet effects volatility.   Nassim Talib's comments about bitcoin being another tulip bubble What was the Tulip Bubble? Cyrpto bleeding into S&P earnings and volatility Fed Ta...

Derek is back to explain why homes may not be as unaffordable compared to 30 years ago. What the media may leave out when talking about home prices and inflation. Plus, quick update on container shipping prices and the week ahead for several central banks.   What the media gets wrong about home prices After inflation, home prices haven't risen quite as much Low rates mean more house Challenge with...

Derek is back to explain why inflation normalizing does not exactly mean lower prices. Jack Dorsey says hyperinflation is coming. What is hyperinflation and is he right? And who's right the blue chip analysts or Atlanta FED's GDP nowcast?   Jack Dorsey says hyperinflation coming. Inflation compounds on itself. Illustrating how damaging 1970s inflation was Compare prices with a normalized inflation...

Jay and Derek are back to together on the podcast to go back and forth on current event.   Jamie Dimon thoughts on crypto COLO Adjustment Jay guest starring on Fox Mornings And Marie (well atleast on a panel discussion) Doing financial TV as a guest CPI latest numbers Container Shipping prices finally tick lower for the first time. Tech earnings releases How Tech companies perform before and after...

Derek Moore is back to discuss whether the Fed has any cover to not pull back on their monthly asset purchases. Plus, what is the employment situation? What about inflation and supply side supply chains? Are we nearing Stagflation? This and more on the program.   Fed Taper Fed Asset Purchases Inflation Container Shipping Supply Side Issues GDP Now failing Stagflation US Treasuries Close Above 1.6%...

Derek Moore is back to discuss political risk to markets and interest rates. What exactly is the budget reconciliation process? What is the debt ceiling and is there really a risk of default? What about the filibuster?   Debt Ceiling Budget Reconciliation Process Continuing Resolution Inflation Supply Chain Issues Container Shipping Issues Infrastructure Bill $3.2 Trillion Budget Bill Political Ri...

Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial is back to discuss key market themes including comparing September to other months. Guess Which month is the worst? Evergrande in China and what is going on with their bonds. The Fed Taper and interest rates. Economy and GDP growth slowing? Housing starts along trendline. Plus, myths about portfolio hedging.   Evergrande in China China's Three Red Lines Debt...