Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is joined by Jay Pestrichelli for episode 400 to debate SpaceX's and Tesla potential merger after Jim Chanos questioned Tesla's 5% ROIC at a $1.5T price asking if SpaceX shareholders really want to pay for Tesla. Plus a SpaceX vs. Tesla comparison on 2029 earnings and P/Es. Then, is this volatility normal? A look at 1% down days, drawdowns, intra-year pullbacks, and what the VIX has hi...

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner for episode 400 to ask whether markets are up below average this year, with data on the average S&P 500 up year vs. down year since 1950. Then, Citadel Securities breaks down where expected Q3 earnings growth of 27.2% is coming from, led by Micron and Nvidia. Are forward P/E ratios useful? They're a poor predictor in the short term but a solid one over 10 yea...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to break down where 2026 equity returns are actually coming from. Exhibit A data shows earnings have powered the S&P 500 this year while P/E multiples have contracted. Are we in a bubble? Comparing forward P/Es of the dotcom-era blue chips to today's leaders, plus the hidden volatility behind the Magnificent 7. Then, the 10-year Treasury yield...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to look at markets and what history says comes next. Plus, US Dollar loss of purchasing power illustrates the need to be invested. What about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus 3-month) leading to a recession? Is it too far gone or still a chance? BofA Global Investment Strategy says Treasuries just posted their worst 10-year rolling retu...

  Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to dig into a market that looks healthy on the surface but tells a very different story underneath. S&P 500 breadth, measured by the gap between the index and its median stock relative to 52-week highs, just hit its narrowest level since the Dot-Com Bubble, according to a Marlin Capital chart based on Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner with the market pressing new all-time highs, semiconductors and hyperscalers ripping, and the dichotomy of bad soft data but positive hard data. Plus, is the Fed going to cause another yield curve inversion judging by the narrowing of spreads? Later, do we really need MLB baseball team etfs? All this and more this week including a contrarian i...

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner and Mike Snyder to discuss whether the Fed made a mistake raising interest rates considering the problem with CPI inflation is rising oil prices which is a supply side issue. Plus, the AI companies are sounding alarm bells about extinction level events. Is this a case of "We should be regulated and we'll help you write the regulations" to edge out new competi...

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and...

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner dig into what history says about September in a midterm election year, and why Mike Santoli argues investors should be on high alert heading into the month. Plus, a long look at federal receipts versus federal outlays as a percent of GDP and what top tax rates did and did not do to revenue, the widening spread between mega cap winners and losers in 2026, and a forward...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about Big Oil posting its best free cash flow quarter ever, $70 billion across the top five majors, without the war-driven price spike that powered the last record. Plus, gold pushing back higher as ETF flows return, the Citi global economic surprise index at its highest since 2022, an AI capex boom that lands as an import dr...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about how valuations of the top stocks now have shrunk to those of the overall market, while tech and other Mag7 stocks valuations have come down while earnings expectations are up. Plus, record short positioning in Nasdaq-100 futures, gold fund flows picking back up, VIX seasonality heading into the autumn, and a filing for...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about a jobs report the market read as bad news is good news: payrolls up just 23,000 versus 80,000 expected, the prior two months revised down by 103,000, and participation slipping to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021, even as unemployment fell to 4.1%. Daniel Lacalle argues the Fed is already weighing on the labor mark...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about the market tape defined by two things happening at once: a violent volatility shock concentrated in semiconductors, and an earnings season that is quietly the strongest in years. The Leopold liquidation drove SOX single-stock volatility to 75% much higher than the S&P 500 Index in general. With 305 of 498 S&P 500 compan...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about whether the Mag 7 companies have a free cash flow problem compared to historical payout ratios. Then, they look at the relationship in price action between SpaceX and Tesla. Later, what does the options market say about next week's Apple and Microsoft earnings reports? Oh yea, they touch on Strategy changing how it calc...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss SpaceX now being below its IPO price and whether it can grow into its current value. Plus, Apple sues OpenAI as the stock continues to run into earnings. Later, did anything fundamentally change with the memory stocks like Micron or people just don't want to be the last out. Finally, the Strait of Hormuz didn't matter to markets unt...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner, looking at the Fed Task force and what that means for how the Fed evaluates inflation data. Plus, Anthropic is the S-1 everyone is waiting for. Later, they talk through a classic head and shoulders pattern than played out in WTI Oil charts, Fed probability of interest rate changes, Fed Minutes, and the generational exchange of free cash flow...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to get into markets including whether the memory stock run (including Micron) is over or just taking a pause. Then, they look at the strength of the US Dollar and whether that is a major headwind while oil prices seem like they are done worrying about the Strait of Hormuz. Later, the case for and against the Fed LOWERING rates this year vs the...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week where they'll discuss Micron's earnings announcement and subsequent stock price changes and free cash flow. Is that where all the hyperscalers cash is heading? Plus, the latest geo-political goings on including tracking the number of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Are the Fed dot plot predictions (expectations) really as useless as...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to get into the post Kevin Warsh Fed Presser reaction. Plus, leading economic indicators (LEI) are turning bullish? Then, they talk about the options action in SpaceX including how high is the implied volatility. Odds and ends this week include discussion on MicroStrategy's preferred STRC has dropped below its par value.   SpaceX imp...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder to discuss some wild SpaceX price predictions and review day 1 of trading. Then, they discuss what the implied volatility and options pricing will be like once SpaceX options are available. Then they make the case that oil has seen its peak and the bull and bear case going forward. Later, they look at the 2-day correction before the markets decided none of the...

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to react to the market Friday selloff including many of the chip and memory stocks. What is driving this and has the oil trade decoupled from equities? Then they discuss SpaceX IPO pricing at $135, the strong jobs numbers that exceeded estimates including April being revised from negative to healthy positive number, and Michael Saylor sells some Bitcoin for S...

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner this week to talk about the typical IPO performance within the first 30 days of trading. Then, they compare how Google vs Tesla performed after their IPOs. Later, Goldman Sachs calls for 8000 by year in in the S&P 500 Index, how May has seen stellar returns last couple years, a bunch of ETF filings for SpaceX adjacent products, and surprising forward EPS valu...

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to get into the SpaceX S-1 including their revenues and earnings revealed. Plus, comparing the fever for SpaceX IPO to the dotcom era in the late nineties. Then, looking at Nvidia earnings and looking at its price to sales vs SpaceX. Later, what people thought the market would return over the last 10 years vs what it actually has returned. All this and more t...

Derek Moore is joined by Shane Skinner to discuss the upcoming Nvidia earnings through the prism of the option volatility levels. Then, they look at inflation, GDP, and markets vs expectations. Later, looking at the interest rate predictions and the likelihood of cuts vs raises with Kevin Warsh now at the helm. Finally, looking at the oil futures curve and what the back end says about where people...

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss markets and the economy including Ryan Cohen's awkward CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin where he was pressed on the math behind the financing in GameStop's bid for EBAY. Plus, Micron again reaches an all-time high and still is trading at forward multiples below many other stocks. Later, is this year shaping up to be 1995 or so...