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Google web searches for the term Stagflation are spiking. More pundits are mentioning the S word. So what is Stagflation and what should be looking at to tell whether this is a real risk to the economy?   What is stagflation How to measure slowing growth How to find CPI inflation data Where to follow unemployment and wage growth Why the Fed would be put in a box during stagflation Stagflation caus...

Marcel Benjamin is back on the show for another appearance to dig into the details around TIPS Bonds (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities). How they work and why they are misunderstood by many. Plus, we discuss interest rate risk comparing high and low interest rate environments. Yup, even a little bond convexity primer! This was a great conversation that gives anyone a much greater depth of k...

Derek goes beyond the headlines to look under the hood of the labor market, jobs, and unemployment. Plus, he reviews the container shipping issues and port delays, semiconductors now delayed over 20 weeks. Finally, he discusses whether the government stimulus for a drop in demand might have miscalculated the recession. Instead, what if it's a supply side issue where falling supply and rising price...

Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, is back to talk a walk around the markets to discuss both sides of inflation debate, interesting numbers around all-time highs, hedging, the FED, Housing Prices. Jay turns the tables and hosts asking Derek about the case for and against inflation being transitory.   Transitory or Non-Transitory case for inflation Container shipping issues with inflation The...

Traderscoach.com founder Bennett McDowell joins Derek Moore. They hit the record button and what ensues is a free-flowing discussion around what common themes they see from successful investors and trades. Plus, what common mistakes they see repeated by those struggling to find their trading voice. Later they discuss trading live in front of an audience in a trading challenge. Favorite trading mov...

You hear it all the time: start early contributing money to investment accounts. But just how big of a difference does it make? What about doing a monthly budget? Are detailed budgets more of a hassle than they are worth?   How much money at various ages needed to contribute to build wealth? Why some budgets may not be beneficial The big items like cars, rent, and mortgages make an impact not your...

You often hear people quote historical stock and bond returns. But are they useful to investors? What lessons can you take from them to help with your portfolio construction? What challenges do historical investment returns have concerning dividend reinvestment and commissions? What about bond historical averages given our low-interest-rate environment?   S&P 500 Index Total Returns 1928- 2020 His...

Watch CNBC or Fox Business for a short while and you are likely to see predictions on interest rates. But how would you see for yourself what the various futures markets are implying for future interest rates? Learn how you can look at the Fed Funds, Eurodollar, SOFR (Secured Overnight Funding Rate), and soon BSBY Rate futures to see into the future what market participants are currently thinking....

This week we discuss how advances in technology and dropping costs have made it better for investors. Has it ever been this good? Maybe investors worrying about payment for order flow are worried about the wrong things? Looking back when there was no dividend reinvestment and high commissions, it would have cost you an arm and a leg to replicate the index. Then we discuss updates to the S&P 500 ea...

Last week the latest CPI inflation data came out from the BLS. If you watched the news, they played it up. While we don't know what inflation will be with any certainty, stop watching the news and start watching the data for yourself. In this week's episode, Derek runs through factors to keep an eye on and where you can track the data for yourself. What's going in with rental car prices? What abou...

Container shipping rates are at all-time highs. So How bad is the situation? How bad is the backup at various container shipping ports? What effect is this having on inflation in the short term? Evergiven container ship released from Suez Canal     Busiest Container Shipping Ports Problems at Yantian port Ships anchored of container shipping ports causing backups The surge in Container shipping pr...

Dan McMullen Senior Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager in Blackstone's Credit Liquid Credit Strategies Unit, SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan ETF (Symbol: SRLN) joins the podcast to explain what senior loans are. How senior loans compare to leveraged loans and CLOs or collateralized loan obligations. Plus, Dan explains what the risks are, how they compare to high yield bonds, and what happe...

Often, we get questions on why one company's options are priced so differently than another. So how options prices differ based on implied volatility? What makes up intrinsic value vs extrinsic value in options premium? Compare a high volatility company to a lower volatility company in the options market. How to calculate expected single standard deviation expected move based on IV Implied Volatil...

The Federal Reserve this week held their June meeting and released their new dot plot. Chairman Powell also did his customary press conference. The Fed says inflation is transitory and likely temporary. Others disagree. They even said they are talking about talking about tapering. So is inflation out of control or transitory as the Fed claims. Plus, what did they do or did not do on policy changes...

ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli and Derek are back together to discuss some surprising data that shows missing just the two best stock market days of the year can dramatically change returns. How Buy and Hedge Hedged Equity Strategy can be a hedge on missing out on markets when your fearful or bearish. Plus, life hacks from a 10-year-old and a famous Peter Lynch quote     Peter Lynch quote What is Buy a...

The Fed announced it plans to sell the ETFs and bonds it purchased. They are already doing reverse repo operations. Some have asked when they will reduce their monthly asset purchases. So, what is the Fed doing, and what are some potential things they might do?     Fed Taper? Fed Reverse Repo Overnight Market Fed Funds Rate Interest Rates Asset Purchase Program Operation Switch MBS Mortgage-Backed...

The Federal Reserve this week set a record participating in the Overnight Reverse Repo Market.   Previously in 2019 they had to enter the Overnight Repo Market as annualized rates soared. So, what are Reverse Repos? What are Repos? Why is the Fed trying to control interest rates by doing market operations in the Reverse Repo Market?     What is the Reverse Repos? What are Repos? What is the Overni...

Market Bubbles are tough to spot the absolute turning point. But most bubbles have the same stages and patterns. So what are some potential tells that we are in a bubble using historical examples? Comparing Dotcom Bubble to the Tulip Bubble. Are Bitcoin or Ethereum in an asset bubble?     What is an asset bubble? Stages of an asset bubble The housing bubble Dotcom bubble Tulip Bubble South Seas Bu...

Broken   Pie   Chart   |   Episode 116 With   Derek   Moore How is Inflation Measured? Sticky CPI vs Flexible CPI Show   Summary: All you hear these days on CNBC is inflation. How high will inflation go? What is causing inflation? But how is the CPI constructed to measure inflation? What are the weightings of CPI components? And, what is the PCE Inflation Index which is preferred by the Fed? • Wha...

Recently more and more investors are asking about Ethereum and Bitcoin. How much crypto currency should I have as a percentage of a portfolio? Is Bitcoin and Ethereum a good hedge against rising inflation? Derek and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss what they are, the differences between them, and what is going on with Dogecoin?   What is Ethereum Crypto Currency? What is Bitcoin? W...

SPACs or Special Purpose Acquisition Companies 2021 growth has outpaced even 2020's record year. So, what are SPAC companies? Are SPAC companies good or bad? What are some famous SPAC companies?     SPAC Special Purpose Acquisition Companies SPAC timeline from creation to IPO of new company What Happens if the SPAC cannot find an acquisition target? SPAC companies have record 2021 with over $100bi...

Many investors saw a rise in rates causing negative returns on bonds in Q1 of 2021. Many were surprised. How is risk heightened due to low interest rates? Duration vs Maturity in understanding bond rate risk. Plus, how have US Treasuries performed by decade.     10 Year US Treasury Returns by Decade Duration vs Maturity to Determine Interest Rate Risk Coupon Payments Time to Capture Principle Call...

Marcel Benjamin, Fixed Income Strategist with State Street Global Advisors SPDR ETF Fixed Income Group, joins to present a deep dive into the High Yield Fixed Income space. What makes a bond part of high yield? What are the risks with High Yield Bonds? How do the ratings differ across the spectrum? Plus, what makes a company a "Zombie Company"?     • US What does it mean to be considered high yiel...

Spencer Wright from Halbert Wealth is back on the program to engage in a discussion around what makes up the Federal Budget. How much does all this cost and where do revenues come from? Plus, some thoughts around why MMT or Modern Monetary Theory may never work despite some economists' best intentions.       US Federal Budget Items What does the US government spend money on? What is the net intere...

Recently I looked up Google Trends to see how terms like inflation and stock market bubble were doing? They have been popular which means people are searching for them. Is this contrarian? How to play armchair stock market valuation game by looking at expected earnings. US Treasuries had the worst quarter performance since 1980 and third worst since 1830. GDP growth according to Goldman Sachs will...