Broken Pie Chart

Why Hedging Is the Answer for Portfolios | Can Hedgers Buy Markets Lower?   Show Summary:   Rather than try to time markets or worry about whether there is a selloff around the corner, look to stay invested but be hedged. But what is hedged equity? What are the benefits for investors who may be barraged by various predictions and news? How do hedged equity strategies work? All this and more plus s...

Was Bed Bath and Beyond a Gamma Squeeze? How the options market can sometimes drive buying and selling. Plus, Jerome Powell does a short press conference talking tough about taming inflation.     Ryan Cohen option positions in Bed Bath and Beyond What is a Gamma Squeeze? How market makers hedge their book to remain flat When gamma squeezes don't move the markets Jerome Powell talks tough in his pr...

Jay Pestrichelli once again joins Derek Moore whether stocks never make new lows after retracing half a bear market drawdown. Plus, how many in the industry have never see a rising rate environment. Then, deconstructing earnings, profit margins, and revenues to go under the hood and how the US dollar strength plays into all of this.     Have stocks ever went on to new lows after retracing half a b...

Derek Moore is back to talk about the difference between diversifiable risk and systematic market risk. Diversification might fail the very time you want it most. The argument for diversification + hedging. Why bonds didn't act as a diversifier this year.     Diversifiable risk Systematic market risk 2007-2009 Period where diversification failed Why diversification is better than concentrated stoc...

Derek Moore is back to discuss the war on share buybacks after a rumored 1% excise tax announcement. What are share buybacks? Why do companies do them? Plus, when you'll officially here whether we are in a recession.     Recessions are called long after they start NBER Nation Bureau of Economic Research committee dating business cycles What NBER criteria uses to call recessions Are share buybacks...

Jay Pestrichelli once again joins Derek Moore to discuss the disconnect between the market's expectation of future interest rate raises and the Fed's stated intentions. Did the market hear the right things from Jay Powell? How earnings through Q2 have held up and are still growing despite pessimistic calls otherwise. Plus, the debate about what a recession is and is not.     Someone is wrong on in...

The US Dollar has been surging (getting stronger) as the Fed is raising rates more than some other countries or regions central bank. So why is a strong dollar problematic? How does a strong or weak US Dollar hurt or help US companies? Derek Moore is back to give some easy to understand examples plus how USD denominated debt from other countries will come under pressure with a stronger dollar.    ...

Michael Lewis wrote the book "The Big Short" that later was turned into a movie starring Christian Bale, Steve Carrell, and Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, and Jeremy Strong. The movie focused on 3 different investors who bet against mortgage bonds before the Great Recession and housing market collapse using credit default swaps. Want to get a primer on swaps and how they work before you watch or re-watc...

This week Derek Moore notes the historic start to the year in bonds given the rise in interest rates and how low they were at the beginning of this cycle. Then Derek discusses target date funds. Popular in 401k plans, many investors don't fully understand what they are and the different types of risks inherent in them.   Historic first half drawdown in the US Aggregate Bond Index What are target d...

This week Derek Moore is joined again by ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to talk about the recent blowups in Crypto and review some contrarian picks that worked and didn't work. Plus, what is the recent backup in rates in the bond market telling us about the probability of a recession and negative GDP for Q2?   Yields backing off predicting a recession? Flattening & Inverted (once again) yield...

This week Derek Moore tries to answer the question of why things like TIPS Bonds (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) down YTD are even though inflation is up. Plus, golds response to inflation. Finally, can we have a recession with low unemployment plus why Bitcoin thus far has not been an inflation hedge despite claims otherwise.   Why TIPS bonds (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) we...

This week Derek Moore discusses the news around MicroStrategy's leveraged Bitcoin strategy and the impending margin call should Bitcoin close below 21,000. Why would a company put their cash in a volatile asset like crypto? Derek explains the situation and news coverage considering Bitcoin's recent drop in price.   How much Bitcoin does MicroStrategy hold? How much has MicroStrategy lost on Bitcoi...

This week Derek Moore discusses why Tesla's 3-1 stock split and Amazons 20-1 stock split don't really matter except potentially making them eligible to join the Dow Jones Index. Plus, some have made comparisons of the selloff in tech to the 2000 Dotcom crash. As Derek explains, they are different and not similar given the numbers then and now. Finally, Derek gives some surprising data points about...

Derek Moore gives an in-depth explanation of each of the components that make up GDP. No, 2 consecutive negative quarters of GDP do not mean a recession! How to use GDP nowcasts to spot trends in GDP and spot recession risks. How the NBER declares recessions and what they look at.   How is GDP calculated? What are components of GDP? What are the most important components driving GDP? Business inve...

Derek Moore is back to discuss historical bear markets. How long do they last and how long does it take to get back to previous highs? What lessons can we take from prior bear markets? Are people too pessimistic about the economy? Plus, why the high yield market may be in better shape given the maturity schedule.   How long do bear markets last? How long after a bear market do stocks recover their...

ZEGA CEO Jay Pestrichelli joins Derek Moore to discuss the current economic and market environment. Topics include the 4 Rs Recession, Rates, Reduction of Multiples (PE Ratios), and the conflict in Russia.   Why the Fed raising rates may not help inflation Impact of Walmart and Target earnings results on net profit margin expectations End of 2021 market was pricing in higher margins and growth Ear...

Derek Moore explains why commentators on CNBC and Bloomberg have been talking about valuations coming down due to interest rates increasing. Why do interest rates matter to stock valuations? How would you explain it to someone? Plus, how all these inputs are estimates and can change over time.   How to understand the present value of future cash flows DCF or discounted cash flow model Earnings est...

Spencer Wright of Halbert Wealth is back on with Derek to discuss what races in the Senate to watch. Predictions for the House to flip Republican or say Democratic. And a way to early look at the 13 Keys to the White House and the state of things as they are now. Plus, what do markets historically do pre and post the midterm elections.   How many 2022 Senate races are considered up for grabs? Revi...

ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli is back to discuss what asset classes have the best real, after inflation returns historically. Plus, is bad news good news around economic releases as it pertains to chances the Fed can't raise rates as much? What would a bad Q1 GDP print mean for markets? Then they discuss the volatility regime and touch on talk about recessions by Deutsche Bank.   Does bad ne...

Derek Moore explains that drops like Netflix this week are not that rare in single stocks. There are tons of examples, especially around earnings releases. Why do people have concentrated portfolios? Diversification vs. single stocks. Problems with selling low-cost basis stocks. How to hedge large, concentrated positions.     What caused Netflix to drop 35% after earnings? The risk inherent in hol...

Derek Moore takes listener requests by taking a deep dive into the how and why when it comes to market values of bonds changing. How to understand what duration is and why it matters to measure risk in bonds to changes in interest rates. What about mortgage-backed bonds? Bonds can be confusing, but Derek breaks down the terms so next time you hear someone talking on CNBC you know what they are ref...

Derek Moore gives a contrarian take on the Fed raising rates. What if raising rates causes a major component of the CPI to increase rather than decrease? If the Fed raises rates, mortgage rates rise, demand increases for rents, and owner's equivalent rents rise? In this episode, Derek explains what is measured in the CPI and explains how OER or Owners Equivalent rent and rents are calculated by th...

Derek Moore is joined once again by ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to talk yield curve inversion. What is the yield curve inversion and why do investors care? Plus, reviewing historical precedent on prior yield curve inversions prior to recessions. What is the average time to recession from yield curve inversion? When has it not worked? Later, they discuss inflation's effect US Large Cap earn...

Derek Moore is joined once again by ZEGA Financial CEO Jay Pestrichelli to discuss whether now is finally the death of the 60/40 portfolio? A Bloomberg article points out when 10-year treasury yields move up or through long term channel resistance things happen. Plus, travel back in time to 1982 where we read some expert comments in NY Times article around predictions on interest rates. Finally, h...

Derek Moore is back to talk about inflation and how there are some misconceptions about what happens if inflation subsides. At the same time, many things we use are enjoying decades long deflation making them cheaper to use. Hint: long distance calling. Plus, why low interest rates do and don't cause inflation. Will raising rates reduce oil prices? Supply and demand is still king.   What are some...