Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge 17th December 2025 – Bitcoin and Crypto Further Detach from Reality. “If you don’t believe it, I’m not going to waste time trying to convince you.” Global Markets surge ahead. Bitcoin has been left behind. Yet again the crypto bubble has popped. All that’s holding it up is buy-the-dip greater fools, hope and belief – none of which are strategies for success. Time for a rea...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 16th December, 2025: The New Economics and Investibility of Defence “The war was started by career soldiers, but will be finished by teachers, engineers and accountants.” Ukraine has demonstrated massive changes in how future wars will be fought. Yet, the military bureaucracies of Western Nations are mired in the procurement-treacle of 80 years of peacetime spending. It’s...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 15th 2025: Some Big themes for 2026? “Santa Baby, one thing I forgot, a yacht and the deeds to a platinum mine…” The Chinese curse about living in “interesting times” is a boon to anyone fascinated by markets. There is no shortage of excitement coming our way next year – everything from conflict threats, renewed inflation, the return of QE, to the Space X IPO. But the...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 12th, 2025 – Outlook 2026: Conflict or Trade? “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that once believed they were eternal.” 2026 Outlooks contain rosy predictions for stock market upside, calmer bond markets, the triumph of AI, and even a few who still say Bitcoin will rule us all. But the major Macro risk will be global trade – what happens as China and the...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 11th, 2025 – The US economy, Potemkin Markets and QE “The IQ of a mob is the IQ of the dumbest member divided by the number of the crowd.” Y’day we had yet another Judder Moment for markets as the Fed surrendered to Trump and prepares to juice the markets with renewed QE. Have we learnt nothing? No, I guess we have not. Pretend and keep pretending as we enter the Potem...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 9th, 2025 – What does new US Security Strategy mean for Markets and Outlook? “For he on honey-dew hath fed, and drunk the milk of Paradise.” The new US National Security Strategy (NSS) revealed last week confirms just how much the world has changed. It was a kick in the teeth for Europe and leaves the door ajar on Taiwan. It’s unlikely to foster stability. It increases...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 8th, 2025 – Markets, TheGlobal Economy and the ‘26 US Midterms.   “It’s all about the economy, stupid…” This week will see the Fed ease rates, stocks will rally on happyretail buying any dip, and everyone will go into the holidays joyful… Except they won’t. There is so much still bubbling under the hood of the US economy that can go “bang”. Don’t watch the USA – watch...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 4th, 2025 – Hans-Jeorge Rudloff could teach us much about markets… “When the Eurobond market exploded, it made London the centre of the world…”   This is not an obituary – but a story about markets. Hans-Jeorge Rudloff, who passed away earlier this week, was the dominant figure of the Eurobond market. His insights and vision were extraordinary – understanding how marke...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 3rd, 2025 – Pantomime, King Rat, and Outrageous Predictions  " It’s behind you, oh no it isn’t!”  W hat’s not to like about Panto? Saxo Bank’s excellent Outrageous Predictions for 2026 are out.. Lets dig into why Sir Keir Starmer might consider rejoining Europe to peeve Nigel Farage, how China will dominate trade through Tech and a gold-linked Yuan, and why SpaceX...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 2nd 2025 – AI isn’t a bubble, it’s Tech evolution evolving   “The new, new thing will always be superseded by the next new, new thing…” Michael Burry is not out. His Stuffed Turkey comments sound like a prophesy. AI is evolving fast and not necessarily in the direction the current market understands. Bewareno-see-ums. What if the current tech is a dead end, and the fin...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 2nd 2025 – AI isn’t a bubble, it’s Tech evolution evolving   “The new, new thing will always be superseded by the next new, new thing…”   Michael Burry is not out. His Stuffed Turkey comments sound like a prophesy. AI is evolving fast and not necessarily in the direction the current market understands. Bewareno-see-ums. What if the current tech is a dead end, and the f...

Blain’s Morning Porridge – December 1st, 2025: Gilts indicate Stability – what is generating the noise?   There are lies, damned lies, statistics, and the Torygraph – where even Lucifer fears to tread.”  There is a lot of noise in Gilts these days. The danger is it derails national confidence – even though much of the clamour is twaddle. The reality is all Governments face challenges, but the UK’s...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 27th 2025 – Bond Markets, Inflation and Economic Dementia   “I find it fascinating the chainsaw has become an emblem of a new golden era of humanity” T he UK survived yesterday’s Pretend and Extend budget. It was a lacklustre soap-opera moment. It won’t cure the UK’s long-term issues or fix Broken Britain. If politicianswere serious about repairing the political econom...

Markets dancing hard ahead of the hangover “Beware markets full of absolute fabrications presented as irrefutable truths .” Markets drunk on expectations and hype will believe what they want to believe – but as bubbles pop and truths are exposed, then sentiment can shift suddenly. Yesterday’smarket darlings become today’s scams. Who knew? Relax. The sun will come up tomorrow. Enjoy the show.   Som...

The end of the American Age – what will follow?  “Let me die in the uniform in which I fought my battles for freedom, may God forgive me for putting on another.”   The end of the exceptional American Century is happening faster than we think. America is dispensing with friends and allies, and American Tech leadership is no longer unquestioned. It spells rising instability and threats. Defence has...

If it’s not AI, will it be Private Capital Markets that trigger crisis? “Private Capital Markets thrive because other markets arerun by compliance and over-regulated.”   Markets are less fragile than we think. There are always people watching, waiting and ready to catch bargains. Some risks are in plain sight. But in Private Capital Markets they are hidden – which is why many market players believ...

Scotland, Kilts and Fitba’, has the world gone mad? “We’re on the march wi’ Ally’s Army… we’ll really shakeem up when we win the World Cup…” The world has gone mad, but fear not, Scotland qualifying for the World Cup will trigger growth, prosperity and happiness (for a wee while – 3 games I expect). The imminent launch of Scottish KILTS bonds will open a Pandora’s box of difficult questions. Forge...

“It’s the end of the world all over again…”   Headlines about a deepening stock sell off, the rising fear” gauge, and unsustainable valuations, are dominating the news flow. Relax. End of the world market crashes happen all the time. Sit back and enjoy the show. Get your buying boots ready.  “ No company is going to be immune , including us” saidSundar Pichai of Google. Peter Theil has sold out of...

In bonds there is truth – at least there was until politicalcampaigners realised what a powerful tool they might be to amplify political failure. Destabilising markets by roiling bonds is unlikely to end well. The consequences could be fearful. Something snapped last week in Gilts, the UK’s GovernmentBond market. Normally I would call a sudden wobble in sentiment as a judder-moment , when somethin...

How low will Bitcoin go this time? “Trading is playing market sentiment. Investment is aboutpredicting the future.” Bitcoin believers are perfectly entitled to believe what they want to believe. The rest of us: too clever to fall for the hype, ortoo stupid to understand – depending on your perspective, have grandstand seats for the BTC “how low will it go this time” championship.     Bitcoin is th...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 13th 2026 – British Gas and Land Rover are why Britain is Broken. “People will forget what you said and what you did, butthey will never forget how you made them feel.”   After a busy few days in London, I need some light comicrelief this morning, so let’s figure out why Britain is really broken. It’s nothing to do with Government. It’s all about crap customer service...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 12th 2025 - BBCCrisis is a Disaster for the UK “I would die in a ditch for the impartiality of the BBC.” The BBC is/was the world’s most trusted broadcaster. It’simpartiality stood above the fake news and politicised opinion presented as irrefuttable facts pumped out by private channels. It was held to the highest standards, and when it’s seen to have slipped – as has...

Spitfire Strategic Capital, Tomorrow depends on Today. “… bugles calling for them from sad shires.”   The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy withoutfighting. As Europe wakes up to the threat, the war in Ukraine shows how quickly the battlespace is evolving. Rearming the West requires a focus on decisive, scalable, deployable technologies to deter further aggression. Let me introduce Spitfir...

Markets struggle with AI, Bonds and Tweets.   “You need me to lie to old people and scare them intobuying fake medicine? I get it.” There is nothing like a Trump tweet to set the tone for the week. Feels like the markets are living on borrowed time re AI, US Treasuries and current valuations. All look strong, but what if the bottom falls out? Relax… the sun will come up tomorrow.   Last Friday I w...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 7th 2025: AI – Noise, Signal, Brace.   “Unprecedented market shocks occur with monotonous regularity.”   Is the AI bubble bursting? Who will be the survivorsand losers? Or is it more fundamental – US AI firms talk of spending billions, but what is China is doing AI better and cheaper? If China wins the AI race, then it will confirm more than just the waning of the Amer...