Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 17th, 2026: Munich, AI and The Year of the Fire Horse. “We must build our hard power, for that is the currency of the age.” The future will be set not just by the defence and deterrence discussions last weekend in Munich, but by how global markets react to competition. New Chinese AI drops from DeepSeek and Qwen may challenge US hyperscalers and challenge expectations...

Blain’s Very Late Morning Porridge Feb 16th 2026 – Sliding, Jambos and Rugby, Sports that matter “He’s kicked that one so high it’s come down with a touch of frost on it..” The world may be going to hell in a handbasket, and tomorrow is the start of the Year of the Fire-Horse (the most volatile of the 60-year Chinese zodiac cycle) but what a fantastic weekend of sports we just had. It’s all positi...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 11th, 2026 – The Munich Conference and Global Threats  “What do you worry about?” … “Events, dear boy, events.” There are times when the course of history takes on a momentum of its own, most often in periods of conflict around hegemonic change – as exist today. This year’s Munich Security Conference will address stressed and fractured global alliances – while markets...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 10th, 2026 – Bond Market Alarm Bells Sounding “Feche le vache..” Did someone say Century Bond? What’s not to like about the bond market? Rates are going to fall! Everyone wants to buy credit (at historically tight spreads) and the biggest most successful firms on the planet are paying 70 cents over Treasuries for your money! What could possibly go wrong?  100-year Ster...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Part 2 Feb 9th, 2026 – The Conflabulation that is Bitcoin finally dies in a pool of disinterest. “Rat Poison Squared” Well, it was interesting while it lasted. Bitcoin has given me plenty to write about these last 15 years. Up, down, up, down, and shake it all about. This tumble feels different. No one is trying to seriously defend it. The walls are down and Bitcoin may be...

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Part 1 Feb 9th, 2026 – Fire Horses, UK Bond Risk, Conflict Risk, and Emperor’s New Clothes Risk! “Knuckles to Buckles” The threat board is looking crowded this morning. From UK political risk, escalating conflict risks, a possible credit burp and what happens next in unsustainable narratives – who knows what further No-See-Ums lurk in the background. Yet markets party on....

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 5th, 2026 – Navigating the stormy seas of Tech “The worst thing you can do is nothing.” Where are the Tech markets and AI heading? Are we due a meltdown or melt-up? Will the bubble bust, or do the current ructions reflect growing uncertainty on which directions upside lies? There is plenty to consider when trying to predict where AI and Tech eventually go. What we do k...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 4th, 2026 – Is Epstein just the tip of the Iceberg? “Chaos is a smokescreen for corruption.” We will likely never know the full truth about Epstein. It’s not a sex scandal – it’s a sordid tale of corruption, insider dealing, greed and arrogance dug deep into the highest echelons of business and society. It involves far more figures than the few who have been exposed. S...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 3, 2026 – We have to talk about Kevin… “I would say [Fed Policy] has been in some sense Reverse Robin Hood.” The nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair has been rationalised as positive for stability and managing Trump. But will a new name on the desk means certainty will return? Nothing really changed within the Administration – Trump remains Trump and has a mass...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 2, 2026 – Skating on very thin ice… Let’s paint the town, we’ll shut it down…. Just how thick is the ice? Everything juddered last week – from AI to perceptions of Geopolitics. There are so many take aways. Are markets vulnerable to an AI/Credit Cascade event? How vulnerable are The Middle Nations (J-CAKE). China is a rising risk. Just how well will the USA handle a cr...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Jan 26th, 2026 – It’s not about Trump, it’s about China and Europe “Europe loves to talk about the future but does nothing about it today.” Gold surges through $5000 and markets remain distracted by the sturm et drang of words and events. The world is changing – but are we thinking about all the wrong things? The real issue for the future may be investment choices between...

Blain’s Morning Porridge, 22nd January 2026: What A Disaster – That Was The End Of The American Century “If you are not at table, you are on the menu.” Yesterday was a strategic disaster for America. Trump and his minions have destroyed the alliances that underpinned American exceptionalism. He revealed as weak and venal; an old man lost in rambling hatreds. America now faces a scrabble to save fa...

Blain’s Morning Porridge January 21st, 2026 – Beware the Judder Moment in Bonds “A pebble falling down a mountain in Japan may trigger momentous events in Nuuk.” Trump dominates the headlines but watch what’s happening in the bond markets. Yesterday Japan bond yields juddered a warning about political competency risks, but also how rising geopolitical and conflict risks are resetting investor expe...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th January 2026: One Year of Trump – The World Has Changed For The Worse “We didn’t force them. They gave us a mandate, and now their little throats are being cut!” It’s one year since Trump took office for a second time. It’s been dramatic. It’s been eventful – and it’s been destructive and destabilising. The winners are Putin and Xi. The losers are the West. But have w...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th January 2026: One Year of Trump - The World Has Changed For The Worse “We didn’t force them. They gave us a mandate, and now their little throats are being cut!” It’s one year since Trump took office for a second time. It’s been dramatic. It’s been eventful – and it’s been destructive and destabilising. The winners are Putin and Xi. The losers are the West. But have w...

Blain’s Morning Porridge January 19th, 2026 - Andnow for something completely different “Your actions will lead to the fall of a great empire” (sotto voce “ your own ”.) Rising risks, geopolitical positioning, conflict, and strategiccompression will be the themes for coming decade. Who will rise, who will fall? What are the implications for markets. Do not expect easy answers. This is unlikely to...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 16th January 2026: Great Moments in British Political Theatre “I love Europe! France is wonderful. It should be. We’ve subsidised it for 40 years.” Catharsis is a marvellous thing. Reform and the Tories will duke it out for the British right, leaving Labour to get on with ever-so-slowly trying to fix Broken Britain – which could be evident by 2029. A great political battle...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 15th January 2026: The End of the Age of American Capital? “People don’t like change, but make the change fast enough and you go from one type of normal to another.” Markets are deluged in noise as the President remakes the world. We’re learning to roll with it – but the trick will be to spot the opportunities and gaps that will open. President Trump’s recent demands that...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 14th Jan 2026: SpaceX, IPOs and Other Pipedreams “If something is important enough, you should try even ifthe probable outcome is failure.” This year is shaping up to be a big one for IPOs, but just how sustainable will the market be if the speculative froth drivingvaluations dissipates? SpaceX will be the big one – it is a truly extraordinary firm, but after the noise, wh...

Blain’s Morning Porridge January 12th 2026:Rolling the Dice on the Fed And Inflation “Luck, if you’ve ever been a lady to begin with, Luck bea Lady tonight..” Trump has shattered conventions on politics and diplomacyso why not financial markets as well? The Show Trial of Jerome Powell will see Trump seize the levers of monetary policy. For markets its dead simple – what will it mean for the econom...

Blain’s Morning Porridge, Jan 9th, 2026 - The Risks of Cascading Sugar Rush Policy  “ When sorrows come, they come not single spies but in mighty battalions .”   The frenetic pace of activity in Washington this week has left the commentariat stunned while dulling the market’s sensitivity to momentous events. Some of it is madness, while much of what Trump is doing makes curiously perverse sense –...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Jan 7th, 2026: Geopolitics, Markets and Economics – Are They Still Connected? “The barometer read “Fair” yesterday, but the Shipping Report says, “Gale Imminent”. Markets have opened strongly in 2026 and seem remarkably sanguine towards rising geopolitical instability and shocks. They’re buying a rosy outlook of rising profits, lower rates and costs, and are blithely uncon...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Jan 6th 2026: Venezuela Bonds – are you a buyer or seller?  “A land of passion and contradictions, where the past and the future collide.” Venezuela bond prices have spiked higher on expectations of new investment, debt restructuring, and the monetisation of its oil resources. But how likely is it the nation can be reformed, attract new money, and satisfy the population wh...

Blain’s Morning Porridge, January 5th 2026 – Another Judder in Geopolitics.  “When America brings its full capabilities to bear, no tyrant is beyond reach.” Concepts about global law and order were left by the wayside over the weekend – Trump’s administration delivered what it said it would in terms of America First, Western Hemisphere focus. Do Venezuela and Iran raise or diminish the risks of Gl...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th Dec 2025 – Destabilisation and Peak Exuberance  “There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy.”   Markets are winding down for the holiday break, but the news flow continues to hint at rising destability and noise, hinting the future economic path will get more twisty and difficult. Lower rates and QE fuelled markets (but n...