Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 10th, 2026 – What if the AI Bubble Fails to Deliver? “Expectations are the root of all heartache…” The AI market has been diving business expectations and markets – everyone believes it will deliver a growth, productivity and profit revolution across the global economy. What if it doesn’t? What if it’s not a leap forward, but just a step-change?  What do Alcohol, Toba...

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 9th, 2026 – Why I’d be voting for Binny MacBinface! “The problem with political jokes is that they get elected…” The fear of what might follow The Labour Government haunts the Gilts Market. Relief may come from the political implosion of Nigel Farage. Grubby Sleaze surrounds him as the UK’s much-loved Man of the People morphs into a discount-priced Mini-me version of...

Blain’s Morning Porridge, July 8th, 2026: Is this the End of Nato?  “Trump is America’s answer to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, weakening a superpower he meant to strengthen.” NATO has been the core of the Western Alliance and Transatlantic Economy. The men in the ill-fitting Florsheim dress shoes have broken it. What will follow is uncertain, but will clearly impact global markets and geopolit...

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 7th, 2026: Overturn this. “Some people believe Football is a matter of life and death. I can assure you it is much, much more important than that.” What Football fans would not want Donald Trump supporting their team? Who would say no to Trump’s superpower to reverse any referee decision? His intervention into the World Cup leaves the rest of the world shaking its col...

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 6th, 2026 “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he did not exist…” England will take a confidence boost from the World Cup win vs Mexico. The Russians will be furious – their war plan requires The West’s resilience and pride is weakened through disinformation and instability. Countering Cognitive Warfare requires the acknowledgement it’s h...

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 3rd, 2026 “Reorganising the civil service is like drawing a knife through a bowl of marbles.” Compare and contrast the USA and Britain. The new country and the old. Our problems are not in our inventiveness, our skills or our people, but in how our societies work. We suffer from Politics that don’t govern, Businesses that don’t share, and Bureaucracies that don’t deli...

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 2nd, 2026 – We need a revolution in Defence “Generals always prepare to fight the last war, especially if they won it.” The UK’s long-delayed Defence Investment Plan was a final humiliation for Sir Keir Starmer as he struggled to gloss over the gaping defence funding gap. But it’s not how much is spent, but what it is spent on that matters. The frenetic pace of Mil-Te...

Blain’s Morning Porridge July 1st, 2026 “It’s not the immediate damage, but the unforeseen second and third order consequences that really hurt.” 2026 has been an interesting year thus far. A number of themes including AI, Geopolitics, Debt and Innovation have driven the flow of markets, which have very high upside expectations and few worries about downside risks. I would remind readers of Blain...

“He can even quote “The Life of Brian” without sounding like a dalek. How bad can it be?” Andy Burnham, the UK Premier in waiting, has laid out his vision and plan for the UK. It didn’t scare the horses and contains some interesting ideas. What it didn’t say is about some of the big issues and “courageous” spending decisions is worrying. But the idea of moving the centre of UK political gravity ou...

“Decisions to secure our economic future are not easy – but they are critical.” Andy Burnham promises the UK a national reboot. Critical to his success will be his choice of chancellor, and the relationship with the financial markets. Rachel Reeves is closely associated with the failed Starmer premiership – but she knows how to do the job and has credibility with the markets. With new leadership s...

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 25th, 2026 – The Rule of Law, Trust and Democracy: building blocks of the Economy “Democracy doesn’t collapse when a ruler lies, it collapses when people stop caring that he lies.” The success of Western Capitalist Economies is founded in the Rule of Law, Trust and competent Democratic leadership. Break confidence is these, and the economy becomes a free for all, with...

“The temperature’s rising, it isn’t surprising, it’s too damn hot.” Are we about to have an  Emperor’s New Clothes  moment and a return to sane AI valuations? The Tech markets create enormous real value and growth across economies, but like every other bubble in financial history they are hyped to high heaven. In the short run there is money to be made playing the game. In the long run; what is re...

"To move a mountain, start with the smaller stones…” The success and depth of US capital markets to finance entrepreneurs and successive tech revolutions has been extraordinary – fuelling the exceptionalism of the US economy. In contrast, the UK is more risk adverse towards start-up opportunities. That’s largely cultural, a reflection of the more mature, later-stage British Economy. What will...

“The king is dead. Long live the King.” Poor old Sir Keir Starmer. Wrong man in the wrong job. So much hope now squandered. But its important not to over-think or over-worry what comes next. In Gilts there is truth and the 10-year yield is still south of 5%. Andy Burnham needs to prove himself a leader and demonstrate ideas and action. Is that too much to ask?  There is little surprise that Sir Ke...

“After all, we’re all on the same team… aren’t we?” What is the point of the G7 meetings? The issues are clear: growth, defence, security and future threats – like the developing El-Nino. Instead, the leaders dance around the Orange Man, ignoring the fragmentation around them. If we are going to put Europe on track, we have to identify the problems and address them at root. Capital Markets and Def...

“I am extraordinarily patient, provided I get my own way in the end.” The Russians are deliberately provoking the UK in the English Channel – seeking to demonstrate that “Broken Britain” lacks the will, the resources and resilience to rebuild itself. The imminent Nationalisation of failing water utility Thames Water highlights how decisions made decades ago have had consequences that are costing t...

“Sometimes I’ve believed six impossible things before breakfast” Stock Markets partied higher yesterday, utterly unbothered by the optics of the Iran Deal. Bond markets look at the long-term risks – wondering what the consequences of the Iran war might trigger in the coming years when today’s new bonds are set to repay. Traders will be trying to figure out what a new world will look like, and just...

“Tonight, there’s going to be a jailbreak… don’t you be around…” There were a number of “Moments” over the Weekend. A Peace Deal in the Gulf was inevitable – but we will see energy supply chains slowly normalise and lower inflationary expectations. Equally important is the US Government switching off Anthropic’s most powerful AI models. Collectively, these two events could have enormous consequenc...

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 12th, 2026 – Let the Games Begin – Love the World Cup “And we’ll really shake em up when we win the World Cup!” What’s not to like about the World Cup? Forget the noise, forget the rancour – and celebrate the greatest festival of visceral tribal sport on the planet. Life is not about the money in your wallet, or the price of your stocks – but the laughs you laugh, the...

Blain’s EXTRA Porridge June 11th, 2026 – UPDATE – UK DEFENCE MINISTER RESIGNS “Et tu Brute?” … “Yet Brutus is an honourable man.” UK Defence Minister John Healey’s resignation over the dearth of defence funding this morning will throw UK defence into turmoil, and further undermine the flolloping Starmer Government. Gilts spiked higher on the news. Link to Podcast This Morning Porridge Extra contin...

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 11th, 2026 – UK Defence Investment Plan delayed again! “To avoid war – be prepared to fight.” The UK’s Defence Investment Plan has been delayed yet again, mired in cabinet warfare on spending. The DIP will focus on big projects like a new fighter-jet but will make a nod to the lessons learnt in Ukraine. The big issue is how the defence industry will evolve away from D...

Blain’s Morning Porridge June 10th, 2026 – Where Is AI Going and What’s it Worth? “You can’t eat a fishing rod, but you can feed a family from it.” The AI revolution is very real, but the froth around its valuations is not. The real value of AI won’t be in how hyperscalers establish themselves to “rent” us AI services, but how the real economy reacts to the opportunity, and smart firms learn to in...

“In bonds there is truth. In stocks there are dreams. Together they set the economy.” Western economies succeed because bond and stock markets work together. Bond markets enable governments to finance the optimal conditions for invention and innovation, enabling growth and prosperity. Sometimes Markets fall out of line, while Politics are ruled by votes rather than experience – and that’s where th...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 28th May 2026 – SpaceX is a fantastic business, but it isn’t worth that much.   “Ideas are plentiful. Delivery is the hard part.” I am genuinely excited by the SpaceX IPO. The valuation means I won’t touch the stock with a bargepole, but it should be a great business with multiple opportunities ahead of it. However, I suspect it will become another story where Musk promise...

Blain’s Morning Porridge, May 27th, 2026 – Record US Stock Markets But Something Ain’t Right?  And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born? You can’t keep a good market down. New record US levels seem to occur daily. But, why? The underlying picture of the US economy is not weak, but the political structures around it seem to be fraying. What might give...