Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 26th, 2026: AI - Who Should We Listen To? The Pope or the AI Owners? “Contemporary man has not been trained to use power well.”  The Pope has published an Encyclical warning on the risks of an ill-considered rush towards AI. It comes at a time when AI is driving the markets, and AI leaders are whispering in Trump’s ear that regulation will destroy America’s lead. It’s...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 22nd 2026 – Just how bad could the bond market get? “Ships make no money sitting in port, so build and sail them to ride the storms that will inevitably assail them.” In Bonds there is truth. While government bond yields have risen some 40-50 basis points since the Iran War, and yield curves have steepened, we are not in crisis territory yet. However, the risks of “hig...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 21st, 2026 – When Personalities Lead the Markets what might follow? “Second prize is a set of steak knives…” I know I should be talking about bond yields and inflation risks, but sometimes we have to stop and listen to the noise. Trump, Musk and Bill Winters. When our idols say, do and enact stupid things there are always consequences. This is a market perhaps too focu...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th, May 2026 - Defence Investment is evolving fast, and the winners are in Ukraine. “The war for which Generals prepare is always the last one – especially if they won it.” Investing in defence was a sadly neglected skillset for many years following the end of the Cold War. Defence primes became utility like seeking to preserve margins as real budgets declined on the pea...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 19th, 2026 – Why are politics so broken when markets are so strong? “The only thing that scares me is Keyser Soze.” Why are markets so high when the global outlook, trade and domestic politics look so vulnerable? Is it because investors perceive that corporates hold such power in the economy, they now set the agenda? What the global economy may need is a reset, but at...

Blain’s Late Afternoon Porridge, Monday 18th, May – The Truth and Financial Media risk becoming strangers “The past is erased, the erasure is forgotten, and the lie becomes the truth.” To understand markets and the economy you need to understand how it really works; the where, what, when, why and how of the frictions that make for imperfect markets interreact. That includes politics. But trying to...

Blain’s Morning Porridge, May 15th 2026 – What did we learn from the Beijing show? “He was a gentleman on whom I built an absolute trust.” Trump has told us how fantastic the Beijing summit was – but what is the truth? China and the US agreeing on trade and growth over conflict is positive. They will remain polite to each other, but the struggle for hegemonic power will continue. Xi may be betting...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 14th, 2026 – Don’t Blame Starmer, Britain was Broken years ago...  “And was Jerusalem builded here, among these dark satanic mills…” The imminent departure of Sir Keir Starmer (it is a matter of when, not if) is bread and circuses. His defenestration will distract and amuse the chattering political classes and infuriate voters as yet more evidence of Broken Britain. Bu...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 12th, 2026 – The NACHO Trade and What it Might Lead To “It may look pure, but only because blood washes so easily from its blade…” Trump is running out of options over Iran. Bluff and Bluster won’t fix it. When he visits Beijing this week, he will be up against Emperor Xi – who holds all the cards; sufficient oil reserves, dominance over global supply chains, and criti...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 11th, 2026 – A tale of 3 Cities, London, DC and Beijing. “[The sun] rose upon no sadder sight than the man of good abilities and good emotions, incapable of their directed exercise…” 2 choices for markets this week. Worry about where politics are headed in DC and London, and where the Beijing summit will lead us. Or join the AI party, bet everything on the upcoming IPO...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 8th, 2026 – 81 years later what have we learnt? “War is the unfolding of miscalculations.” Today is the 81st anniversary of VE Day – the end of the Second World War in Europe. Markets are fixated on rising stock prices and probably won’t notice. Complacency is the danger. The Wars in Ukraine and Iran highlight success and failure and point towards a very different futu...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 7th, 2026 – The AI Revolution is set to consume itself. “Like Saturn, the Revolution devours its own children.” Markets can’t wait for the Iran war to end – so they can get back to speculating trillions on the AI revolution. The hyperscalers expect to reap monopoly scale rents from owning AI closed-weight models and the digital infrastructure of datacentres and chips....

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 6th, 2026 – Gilts and the Labour Party; the Judder Moment “Apres Moi le deluge...” The UK is not about to disappear in a puff of smoke because the Gilts Market is having a minor tantrum. But there is a serious Political Competency premium on Gilts, which will rise when the scale of Labour’s defeat becomes apparent, and the Starmer premiership is up against the wall. Tr...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 5th, 2026 – Who will prove the eventual winners? “All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand…” The War/Not War in the Gulf rambles on – and the consequences mount. Careless markets are becoming anesthetised to the news – raising the risks of a shock destabilisation. The big question is what will follow? Who will be the winners from Trump’s misbegotten...

Blain’s Morning Porridge May 5th, 2026 – Who will prove the eventual winners? “All the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten this little hand…” The War/Not War in the Gulf rambles on – and the consequences mount. Careless markets are becoming anesthetised to the news – raising the risks of a shock destabilisation. The big question is what will follow? Who will be the winners from Trump’s misbegotten...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Mayday 2026 – Stagflation... No, definitely not... but yes.  “By tax adjustments we have planned to institute the promised land, and just to show we’re still sincere, we’ll sing the Red Flag once a year…” When staring down the abyss of looming stagflation, a bond market rout, and a reset on the global economy… let’s try to pretend it’s all something else. Christine Legarde...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 30th, April 2026 – Defence: too complex, too difficult, which is why you must invest! “If you want to value the price of freedom and defence – take a look at the failed Soviet economies.” Defence is among the most difficult areas to invest. Who would become an analyst after 30-years as a Cinderella sector in the wake of ESG and peace dividends? Now, the imperative for new...

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 29th, 2026 – Malta, The King, The Gulf and whatever next…. “America’s words carry weight and meaning… the actions of this great nation matter even more...” Interesting times indeed. Mr Market seldom looks beyond the end of his own nose, but the World is looking increasingly fraxious these days. Big nations have ever bigger problems. Maybe smaller ones will do better?...

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 22nd, 2026 – Gilts Wobble as Much as Starmer… “All political lives end in failure…..” The spike in Gilt Yields says it all. Its crisis – again – in Westminster as Starmer is mired in crisis with no obvious way out. Yet again we learn a political lesson – good  political leaders are a scarce commodity. The British electorate is losing faith in politics. What will glob...

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 21st, 2026 – Robots, Competition and Total Addressable Markets. “When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars, people said, ‘Nah, what’s wrong with a horse?” Past performance is not a guide to the future. Tesla trades on a massive PE because folk believe Elon Musk will repeat his success in EVs across AI, Capacitance, Robotaxis, Autonomous Driving and Robotics. But hype...

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 20th, 2026: Day Trading vs 60-year K-Waves “He must know something, but don’t say nothing...” The markets are on a tear convinced normalisation is around the next corner. Yet they ignore the reality the Iran war has done significant damage to the global outlook – even if Tehran and Washington kiss and make up tomorrow. I don’t claim to understand the madness of marke...

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 17th, 2026: Sports Investments on a Wobble “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” I have no interest in golf – it’s a good walk spoilt. But the rumoured collapse of the rogue LIV Golf Tour, and the disinterest fans are showing in attending Trump’s price-gouging Football World Cup, may be hints the sports investment bubble is about to burst...

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 16th, 2026 – Stock Markets and Common Sense. “There is a knack to learning to fly. It lies in learning to throw yourself at the ground and miss.” Stock markets are on a buzz. Central banks are expected to ease immediately. Joy unlimited. What war? Peace in the Middle East! Really? There are none so blind as salesmen wanting to talk a market higher. Blain’s Market Man...

Blain’s Morning Porridge 15th April 2026 – UK Gilts.. Nothing To Worry About “Spend, Spend, Spend” Damn the torpedoes! Full steam ahead. The recent 10-year Gilt auction was a screaming success. There is plenty of demand at the right yield – 5% for 10 years! The cost of servicing debt is high, but to create growth the government needs to fix the economy by borrowing more. Global investors know that...

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 14th, 2026 – What Orban’s end means for Europe and Populism “All political lives end in failure.” Viktor Orban was a curious beast. A pragmatist and a populist who tried to play off Moscow, Washington and Brussels. Hungary is not yet solved, but it could be a transformational moment for Europe in terms of Populism and Unity.