Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge November 5th 2025 – Rachel Reeves Tells it Like It Is? “Controversial means “this will lose you votes.” Courageous means “this will lose you the election.”  Yesterday saw bad political theatre in the UK. RachelReeves got up and warned everyone it’s going to be bad and therefore made it so. Acres of negative coverage and lots for the opposition to make noise about. But the...

Survived October? Back to full on Complacency… “The real work is like rugby. Everything is connected. Everyplay has consequences.” Yet again I was wrong and overly bearish. Markets survived October with barely a shrug. Everything is apparently fine and dandy.. nothing to worry about? Complacency and belief abound. We have been here before…. And what does Rugby tell us about markets? Before I launc...

A Horror Story from 2035.   “The smug mask of virtue triumphant can be almost as horrible as the face of wickedness revealed.”   What will the future look like? Many Porridge readersfear Technofeudalism – where a new aristocracy of big tech will replace democracy and make serfs of us all. What might it look like…?     It being Halloween, as so often happens in the Morning Porridge office, this mor...

“Come not between the dragon and his wrath” This morning’s meeting in Busan, Korea was short and sweet. Goal achieved - the global meltdown that would have followed a rare-earth embargo by China has been avoided. What is more interesting is how it could change the current power set-up in Washington as Scott Bessent and Marco Rubio increasingly takecentre stage. Two events and One Big Question for...

How much will AI cost, and how much can we afford?   “The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincingthe world he didn’t exist..”   The AI Bubble floats on a wave of Confidence – confidencethe global economy needs it, the USA will lead it, the hyperscalers and AI firms can afford it, energy is not an issues, and competition from China, tech evolution and quantum are not issues. All the mar...

Compare and contrast the Real World with Dreams   “And you have burned so very, very brightly…” Gold has taken a bit of a tumble – but is thecorrection a buying opportunity? While the UK feels increasing glum ahead of the few choices in the November Budget, Elon Musk is confident on his demandsfor a $1 trillion upside bonus. They are illustrations of the contrast between hype, speculation and down...

"So, it’s a f*****g coin toss? That is what we get for 50billion dollars?”   It is possible to cram Cataclysm, Armageddon and Apocalypseinto a single Morning Porridge at the start of a week that promises to be market friendly? Of course it is! There is plenty of stuff to worry about, but when the noise sounds so positive, the herd that is the market will keep on fooling themselves.. The highe...

Call it Chaos, but we sure do live in interesting times.. “You know nothing John Snow…” Chaos occurs when events break out their usual bounds, and it feels like markets are skirting on the edge! Relax. It’s normal in periods of acute change – as are happening now. The Game of Markets across long, medium and short-term horizons is constantly changing – I guess that’s what makes them interesting! Wh...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 22nd 2025 – As long as there is instability and uncertainty there will be the Yellow Metal “Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty..” Gold Prices stumbled earlier this week. It is a bursting bubble? Nope...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 21st 2025: Time for a rethink on Tech Resiliency? “Did someone forget to feed the hamster?” Western economies are dependent on functional tech. Yesterday’s Amazon outage suggests the resiliency of tech infrastructure is creaking, raising multiple issues about dependency and costs. Could a shift in how companies secure against Tech vulnerabilities see the MAG3 firms at...

Mutant Credit Cockroaches? Whatever next? “Smart men go broke three ways: ladies, liquor and leverage.” Markets feel increasingly nervous. Although someone has cranked up the party music to 11, and the euphoria is still pouring, concerns about banking and loan exposures are rising. If there is a wobble, then it’s likely to be leverage on leverage that sees a bunch of private credit lenders in trou...

Every day we are reminded of injustice in the UK – the fight of postmasters against the Post Office, or haemophiliacs against the medical indifference are just  the tip of an iceberg of a justice system loaded against the people. It’s only when it impacts directly do you realise just how lopsided UK planning has become. There is no social justice – just the jackboot of corporate greed being crushe...

Blain’s Morning Porridge Oct 15 2025 – Catflap While The Dance Band on the Titanic Plays On “ Damn the Torpedoes, full steam….  Boom . gurgle gurgle..”   There is no stopping a market believing what it wants to believe. Tariffs, Trade Wars, Credit Cockroaches, BTC delusions, this market has it all, yet everyone is still dancing. Best thing to do might be to “Catflap” – walking away without saying...