5 in 5 with ANZ

The People’s Bank of China left a key interest rate on hold, surprising markets expecting a cut after more signs China’s economy is deflating. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why demand for new offices is much stronger than expected, even with more people working from home. Before accessing this podcast, please read the discla...

Oil prices surged through US$80/barrel over the weekend after US and UK air strikes against Houthi facilities in Yemen raised fears a wider war in the Middle East could choke off major shipping routes through the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why demand for new office construction is much stronger t...

In our special last episode for 2023, I talked with ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga about the themes for 2023 and 2024 in global markets and economies. He explains why 2023 was the year of the soft landing, how China and Japan are book-ending the global rates cycle, and why fiscal policy will matter in 2024 edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2024. Have a safe and prosperous Ch...

In our special 101st episode edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

In our special 100th episode edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2023. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Market interest rates are sharply lower this morning and stocks are rallying after the Fed pivoted to projecting interest rate cuts next year. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Vietnam is benefiting from friendshoring. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global markets are in animated suspension this morning ahead of the Fed’s decision at 6am Sydney/Melbourne time. Australia’s budget is healthier after solid income tax and mining royalty growth. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Vietnam’s economy can keep growing, even after its demographic dividend has ended. Before accessing this podcast, please...

US inflation data met forecasts overnight. Now the focus shifts to how hard the Fed will push back tomorrow morning at market expectations of early and large rate cuts next year. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why Papua New Guinea’s economy is set to double inside the next five to eight years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at...

Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of US CPI data tonight and the FOMC decision on Thursday morning, although the yen is falling as expectations of a Bank of Japan next week evaporate. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why there’s such strong demand for Australia’s houses from rental property investors. Before accessing this podcast, please...

America’s economy is still generating solid jobs growth while on track for a soft landing, but China’s has slowed so much it’s producing deflation.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Comments from Japanese officials suggesting a rate hike jolted the yen and Japanese bond yields sharply higher overnight. Global markets are now focused on Non Farm Payrolls data tonight for signs of a soft US landing. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the Fed’s next rate cutting cycle will be so different. Before accessing this podcast, please...

Soft Australian GDP figures have increased the chances that 4.35% will stay as the peak for the RBA’s cash rate. Oil prices slumped below US470/bbl overnight In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh examines the outlook for India’s rupee and the Singaporean dollar next year as the Fed starts cutting and the US dollar weakens. Before accessing this podcast, please rea...

More US soft landing signs dragged US Treasury yields lower overnight, but the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are weaker after a credit rating warning for China and an RBA hold some in the markets saw as less hawkish than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why he sees Fed rate cuts in 2024 helping Asia’s currencies. Before accessing this podcast, pl...

The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35% in its last cash rate decision of the year this afternoon, albeit with a hawkish tone and after considering a hike. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why he’s raised his iron ore price forecasts to over US$100/tonne, despite weak demand for steel from China’s apartment developers. Before accessing this pod...

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are opening at four-month highs against the US dollar and the gold price is at a record-high US$2,091/oz after US Treasury yields fell again on a growing conviction the Fed has engineered a soft US landing. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell details the pressures in Australia’s A$100 billion infrastructure investment pipel...

The Fed’s favourite measure of US inflation landed softly in October, leaving it on track to start cutting rates from the middle of next year. But inflation is weakening much faster in Europe, meaning rate cuts could start there from Easter. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin examines growing market confidence about a soft US economic landing. Before accessin...

Australia’s inflation rate was much weaker than expected in October, but the RBA is expected to stay on a hawkish hold. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has also taken a hawkish stance, wrong-footing markets hoping for early rate cuts. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin examines growing market confidence about a soft US economic landing. Before accessing this...

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars have surged overnight to four-month highs against a weakening US dollar, thanks to comments from a normally hawkish Fed official suggesting US rate cuts are more likely than hikes anytime soon. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Blair Chapman maps out the sweet spot for his new FTE-pop indicator of Australian labour market tightness. B...

China’s industrial profit growth has slowed sharply, increasing expectations for more stimulus. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Blair Chapman has come up with a better measure of how tight the labour market is: FTE-pop. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

New Zealand finally has a new centre-right coalition Government to replace the outgoing Labour administration. It plans tax cuts, spending cuts and a tweak to the Reserve Bank’s targets. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga maps out the week ahead in global markets and economics, including whether investors are too optimistic about a soft landing. Before a...

New RBA Governor Michele Bullock is talking hawkishly about demand-driven inflation, which is set to keep Australian interest rates high, and possibly higher, for longer. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin details why massive US public investment spending is holding global interest rates up for longer. Before accessing this podcast, please read th...

China’s renminbi has strengthened to a four-month high on hopes for calmer US vs China relations and lower US market interest rates. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains the importance of the US pivot to massive infrastructure spending. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-fi...

New stimulus moves for China’s property developers are bolstering the commodity currencies, including the Aussie and Kiwi dollars this morning. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia economist Maddy Dunk digs through Australian state GDP figures to find the winners and losers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podca...

Central banks are now grappling with lower market interest rates that have undone some of the heavy lifting they were relying on previously higher rates to fight inflation. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh unpacks why there has been an improvement in exports from Asia ex China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/ins...

Oil prices jumped 4% over the weekend on talk of fresh supply cuts. ANZ now sees the RBNZ holding the OCR in late February, vs a hike previously. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why Australia’s major projects pipeline is set to double to over $100 billion, and examines the pressures that will create. Before accessing this podcast, please...