5 in 5 with ANZ

China cut a key interest rate to support a sagging property market, although markets reacted mildly as traders await comments from three Fed speakers and FOMC minutes; RBA minutes show focus on sticky services inflation ahead of key wage data today; Green shoots in NZ discretionary spending could get RBNZ attention. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari looks at a...

China stocks underwhelmed as markets opened after the Lunar New Year. The US dollar is expected to be strong through the first quarter. ANZ Research looks at a scenario for a 7% OCR in New Zealand. Thailand’s economy grew less than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why oil prices haven’t spiked much, despite widening conflicts in...

China’s consumers travelled and spent more during the just-completed Lunar New Year holidays than in 2019. The RBA will watch this week’s Australian wages figures like a hawk. The RBNZ says the last mile of inflation reduction will be hard. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why there’s a growth and interest rate divide opening up between the United...

Markets shrugged off weaker Australian jobs figures. UK and Japan GDP fell. US retail sales were weak. NZ migration was at record highs in 2023, which the RBNZ Governor is watching as an inflationary factor. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma reviews the decisive win by Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming in Indonesia’s Presidential elections, whi...

US markets bounced overnight after traders took stock of stronger-than-expected inflation, and as a Fed President said higher monthly inflation was still consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman explains why full time employment growth in Australia might be set to taper off, and what that could mean for the RBA. Before accessing this...

US prices grew faster than expected in January, reducing hopes for a March rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The strong reading sent stock markets down, while US bond yields and the US dollar surged. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how a US ‘friendshoring’ pivot away from China is pushing up US costs and prices. Before accessing this podcast, please r...

The S&P 500 has pushed even further above 5,000 ahead of US inflation data tonight. India’s inflation rate decelerated in line with expectations in January as food price rises slowed. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma explains what’s at stake in Indonesia’s elections starting tomorrow. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz...

The S&P 500 starts the week at a fresh record high of just over 5,000 and ANZ Research has changed its call for the RBNZ’s OCR to two more hikes to 6%. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains the call change and how the RBNZ has set precedents before. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/f...

Faster-than-forecast deflation in China is raising expectations of more stimulus. The Reserve Bank of India held overnight, but more hawkishly than expected. The chances of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking in three weeks is rising. In our bonus deep dive interview around the Lunar New Year, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at China’s energy transformation in the ‘fir...

The S&P 500 rose more than 0.5% to record highs near 5,000 after strong US corporate earnings and rate cut comments from the Fed’s Neel Kashkari. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung has looked at what typically happens to birth rates in the year of the dragon, and why this Lunar New Year may be different.  Before accessing this podcast, please read...

The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are opening a bit stronger after the RBA’s hold decision yesterday was a touch more hawkish than some expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Economist Andre Castaing says the RBNZ’s proposed loosening of loan to value ratio restrictions is expected to boost demand for housing later in 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer a...

All eyes are on the RBA’s first cash rate decision of 2024 today, which is also its first with a new two-day board meeting that releases new forecasts and has a news conference all at once. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why US GDP and services inflation remains so resilient that the Fed is having to wait until the middle of 2024 to cut the Fed F...

Much stronger than expected US jobs growth data on Friday night sent US bond yields sharply higher over the weekend. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at a slump in the Indonesia Rupiah ahead of its presidential election next week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Global bond and stock markets are rallying this morning, despite attempts yesterday by Fed chair Jerome Powell to downplay chances of a rate cut in March. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim details a key reason for India’s economic outperformance — Government investment at 20 year highs in its budget overnight. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at h...

Global bond yields fell this morning ahead of the Fed’s keenly awaited interest rate decision due as we publish at 6am Sydney/Melbourne time. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities strategist Daniel Hynes takes a closer look at momentous decision to pause building LNG export terminals in the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www...

Global markets are on tenterhooks ahead of the Fed’s decision early tomorrow morning, although market expectations about rate cuts starting in March eased back a bit more. In our bonus deep-dive interview, we hear from ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim India’s pre-election Budget due on Thursday night. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-fi...

India’s Finance Ministry says its economy could grow around 7% in coming years, with the country’s stock exchange rising 1.6% yesterday. In our bonus deep-dive interview, we hear from ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani about why regular exports from Asia are expected to be slower than electronics exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fiv...

Oil prices rose sharply over the weekend after more drama in the Red Sea and on signs of strong demand for oil from the US economy. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview on the euro’s 25th anniversary, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks at whether it can ever supplant the US dollar as THE global reserve currency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https:...

China loosened lending rules overnight by the most in two years, sparking a rally in stocks there. Flash PMIs reinforced hopes for soft landings and rate cuts. In our bonus deep-dive interview on the eve of tonight’s ECB decision, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, reflects on the euro’s 25th anniversary. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/instit...

China stock market has rebounded on a report of a US$278 billion plan to support stock values. In Australia, the Federal Government is reported to be about to shift the mix of ‘Stage 3’ tax cuts towards lower to middle income earners. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at the deflationary implications of growing numbers of un...

US stocks rose again overnight to set fresh record highs on bolstered hopes for a soft economic landing, while China’s stocks fell 2.4% to near a two-decade low as investors worry about deflation and capital outflows. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, takes a closer look at the growing numbers of unemployed migrant workers in China’s cities....

US stocks surged over the weekend to record highs, and markets are looking out this week for three crucial central bank decisions. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrill explains why big shopping centres with multiplex cinemas are doing much better than shops in and around CBDs.  Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.an...

Global markets bedded in a 20 basis point rise in US 2 year Treasury yields overnight after more hawkish signals from the Fed, which kept the US dollar solid against the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why the RBNZ is now likely to cut first in August. That’s later than market expectations for a May cut, but earli...

Global bonds and stocks sold off again this morning after the ECB pushed back against market views of an early rate cut and US retail sales were stronger than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur finds out what’s behind a surprisingly strong recovery in Asia’s jobs markets after covid. Before accessing this podcast, please read...

Global bond markets sold off this morning after Fed official Christopher Waller cautioned against expectations of early and fast cuts in US interest rates. In our bonus deep-dive interview on Australia’s commercial property investment pipeline, ANZ New Zealand Economist Andre Castaing went deep into last year’s GDP figures and found the worst per-capita recession in 15 years. Before accessing this...