5 in 5 with ANZ

Oil prices fell sharply on signs of slowing US demand, while bond yields fell after weak US manufacturing data. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Asia Economist Krystal Tan dissects the effects of high US interest rates and diverging commodity prices on the balances of payments for South Asia and Southeast Asia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com...

Global markets were volatile again overnight. Slightly stronger than expected US retail sales unleashed a bounce in US Treasury yields, but US stocks and the ‘risk’ currencies, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, held their gains. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Strategist in China ZhaoPeng Xing details the rise in the renminbi’s share of global currency and trade markets. Before accessing...

Global stocks surged 2% overnight after flat US inflation data bolstered hopes the US Federal Reserve can end its rate hike cycle. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur shows how changes inside India’s banking system are likely to lift India’s potential GDP growth rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https:/...

Markets are becalmed ahead of key US inflation data due tonight, which is expected to allow the Fed to hold its key policy rate again. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin dissects the inflationary pressures in the all-important US labour market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The RBA issued a monetary policy statement with a hawkish tinge on Friday, meaning a hike is more likely than a cut any time soon, says ANZ economists. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Economics for Australia Adam Boyton explains why the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) is still falling, despite Covid’s supply shocks. Before accessing this podcast,...

The People’s Bank of China is expected to ease a key bank lending rule in the coming months after China reported falling back into deflation last month. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Economics for Australia Adam Boyton explains what the NAIRU is and why it’s important for interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/...

Oil prices slumped again overnight to three month lows as concerns about weakening demand from slowing US, European and Chinese economies. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why Europe is headed for recession and the ECB may cut next year before the Fed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fi...

The RBA hiked as expected yesterday, but the Aussie dollar fell overnight. Some in the market saw the RBA’s comments about future hikes as dovish. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes, explains why central bank buying of gold has nearly doubled. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-po...

The RBA is expected to hike one more time later today, which is helping the Aussie dollar nudge up towards 65 USc in early trade. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at why Indian equities are undervalued. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth data fueled an extension of rallies in global bonds and stocks. Risk currencies rose strongly. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks in the week ahead to the RBA’s rates decision and key China data. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US 10-year down to 4.62% overnight after Fed Chair Powell makes comments seen as suggesting extended rates pause; BoE holds too; South Korean inflation firm; Raymond Yeung's tribute to Li Keqiang. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

US stocks and bonds strengthened shortly after the US Federal Reserve held its key policy rate as expected and on hopes the US economy is slowing in line with Fed expectations. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s China Senior Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why this week’s National Financial Work Conference in China is much more important than it sounds. Before accessing this podcast, please...

The yen slumped to 151.55 overnight after a Bank of Japan tweak to monetary policy yesterday was seen as too timid and not allowing yields to rise quickly enough. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how strong US GDP growth is helping Asia’s economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/instituti...

The yen is rallying in early Asian trade after a Nikkei report the Bank of Japan will consider allowing Japanese Government Bond yields to rise over 1.0%. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Asia’s economies are doing much better than the global headlines might suggest. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https:/...

Israeli troops advanced into northern Gaza over the weekend, raising fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Gold and oil prices rose over key levels. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Andre Castaing explains how higher term premia for US interest rates are flowing into New Zealand’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/insti...

US GDP grew 4.9% in the Q3, which beat expectations, but core inflation measures were subdued, encouraging bond investors to push yields lower. US stocks fell overnight after poorly-received results from Meta and UPS. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why US Government stimulus is getting more traction this time around. Before accessing this podcast...

Australian inflation was faster than expected in the September quarter, which has prompted ANZ’s economists to forecast a rate hike on Melbourne Cup day. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior International Economist Tom Kenny explains what the term premium is, how it’s changed and why it matters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutiona...

Oil prices fell a further 2% overnight to well under US$90/bbl after European PMI surveys showed a deeper contraction in activity and the IEA forecast oil demand falling by 2030 for the first time. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the ECB is likely to hold on Thursday night for the first time in 11 meetings. Before accessing this podcast, pleas...

US Treasuries were volatile again overnight. The 10-year hit 5% and then slid in late New York trade, which dragged on the US dollar and boosted US stocks. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at which currencies are winning and losing in the hunt for safe havens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/instituti...

Global stocks are starting the week down again thanks to high bond yields and plenty of nerves about geo-politics. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ NZ Economist Andre Castaing unpacks why New Zealand has a trade deficit of 3.5% of GDP. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

The US 10-year Treasury bond yield nudged 5% this morning after Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Fed was finding higher bond yields useful in fighting inflation. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Asia Strategist Zhaopeng Xing points to the ‘lipstick effect’ that held back retail sales during China’s Golden Week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz....

US Treasury bonds sold off again overnight, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.91%, its highest level since 2007. Oil rose 2% on a drop in US inventories. Chinese GDP was stronger than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why Treasury yields are rising, even though the Fed appears to have paused rate hikes. Before accessing this podcast, please r...

The bond market selloff resumed in earnest overnight after better than expected US retail sales figures In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at how China might fix the debt problems at its Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fi...

Investor concerns about US Government plans for big issues of new Treasury bonds to fund ongoing deficits is driving up bond yields globally this morning. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung has identified a tipping point for the debt bound up in China’s key Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs). Before accessing this podcast, please read t...

Oil prices are up sharply this morning on signs Israeli troops will advance into Gaza within hours. A flight to safer assets is strengthening the US$ vs the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, while the yen is weak at 149.59/$. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Group’s Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reviews the Fed’s recent comments, previews the week ahead and analyses changing investment flows in Asi...