The Weekly Fix

Fed hikes may be overpriced, but yields stay supported by AI-driven growth. IG carry remains strong as record supply tests spreads. The Treasury curve is expected to steepen in the second half of 2026: front-end yields may ease as oil-driven inflation pressure subsides and markets have potentially priced in too many Fed hikes under Chair Warsh's data-dependent regime, while robust AI-related inves...

The Federal Reserve's pivot under new leadership is reshaping the fixed income landscape, and investors need to be ready. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down what changed at the Fed's latest meeting and how investors should think about navigating this shift. Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair delivered a hawkish surprise, with officials now proj...

The Fed's dual mandate faces unique challenges as artificial intelligence (AI) adoption creates new uncertainty around employment and rate trajectory. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how AI-driven economic transformation is reshaping the outlook for rates and credit markets. Strong fundamentals support elevated rates - US gross domestic pro...

Capital formation replaces innovation as AI's next frontier: a new $85B raise and $1.5 trillion financing gap signal that hyperscaler balance sheets alone cannot fund the infrastructure buildout, forcing debt into utilities, private credit, and securitized markets. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how AI is transitioning from a t...

Built for this moment: Mortgage-backed securities are earning their place in fixed-income portfolios amidst an uncertain rate environment. Teri Savage, Senior Trader on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks how securitized sectors are navigating sticky inflation and shifting Fed expectations. Agency mortgages continue to act as a vital defensive anchor for portfolios during periods of...

Prolonged Middle East tensions drive aggressive bond selloffs across global markets, but strong corporate earnings and elevated yields keep high yield resilient amid broader fixed income volatility. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, explores how geopolitical fatigue is reshaping market dynamics, the widening Fed-ECB policy split, and why high yield continues to outperform amid bond...

The rapid AI infrastructure buildout draws capital from bonds, banks, and utilities – creating potential for concentration risk exposure. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down how Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure funding is reverberating throughout public and private credit markets. Hyperscalers are tapping public bonds, private infrastruct...

Historic Fed discord meets Middle East uncertainty: The most dissenting votes since 1992 expose deep divisions as geopolitical risks and energy prices complicate the path forward for U.S. monetary policy. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down last week's Fed meeting where rates held steady, but unprecedented internal disagreement and Middle East t...

A fragile equilibrium in fixed income: high yields persist despite tight conditions, creating potential opportunities for disciplined credit selection. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how elevated yields and tight spreads create a deceptively simple market environment that may reward active security selection and quality upgrade...

Current energy shocks collide with restrictive monetary policy, creating a different challenge for fixed income investors than 2022. Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how today’s potential inflation shock differs from a few years ago, and why timing may matter for bond investors positioning ahead of a perceived peak. Today's ene...

Markets bounced back, but some investors still aren't buying it. Despite the recovery in equities, positioning remains cautious as high yield fundamentals hold firm. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay Leveraged Finance team, discusses the evolving dynamics between quality carry and market timing in today's environment. The S&P recovered to flat for the year, yet investors...

Quality over risk in volatile markets: Middle East tensions are influencing bond investors toward safer U.S. positions while energy prices create challenges across global economies. Andrzej Skiba, Head of U.S. Fixed Income on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down how geopolitical events are shaping bond strategies and why regional economic exposures differ significantly. Markets ha...

A new $55B deal rewrites the leveraged buyout playbook with equity-heavy financing. Jeff Jablons, Senior High Yield Analyst covering telecom, cable, satellite, and technology sectors on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how a video game company’s take-private deal shatters conventional leveraged buyout dynamics. The capital structure flips convention with $36 billion in equity ver...

Cut expectations evaporate: Federal Reserve easing bets collapsed after March meeting as geopolitical risks and inflation concerns pushed rate hike probabilities above cut scenarios for the first time since last month's two-cut consensus. Eric Hathaway, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores three catalysts that could revive rate cut expectations despite current hawkish...

Private credit's software problem creates a potential opportunity for high yield as exposure gaps reveal structural vulnerabilities in direct lending portfolios. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, analyzes how AI-driven repricing may redirect capital flows across credit markets. Widespread credit repricing pushes spreads to widest levels si...

Corporate credit faces volatility as private credit stress rises, AI divides borrowers, and IG primary strength masks widening dispersion. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how stagflation-style stress and cross-asset volatility are reshaping the credit landscape and potentially creating selective opportunities. Private credit deterioration is accele...

Positioning pays off: Conservative allocations and incoming cash flows shield high yield investors from geopolitical volatility that rattled broader markets. Peter Keenan, Senior Credit Trader on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how cash flows and positioning created an unexpected buffer against Middle East tensions. High yield bonds showed resilience despite heightened Middle Ea...

RBC’s BlueBay Fixed Income team discusses how US markets have shown resilience with contained inflation, though heavy tech sector debt issuance from AI investment creates credit market pressure while raising questions about potential future inflationary risks. January CPI rose just 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annually, below consensus, keeping two 2026 rate cuts priced in. Technology sector's elevated 2...

Trump nominates Warsh for Fed chair as new governors potentially reshape this year’s rate outlook. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down how FOMC leadership changes and political headwinds are shaping the Fed's uncertain 2026 policy path. Rates held at 3.50–3.75% as four hawkish members joined, though dissents from Governors Miran and Waller favor...

Will tighter spreads hold as supply floods the market? Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses the Fed's steady approach and how heavy corporate issuance is shaping the credit landscape. The Fed is expected to hold rates this week, with the potential for up to 3 cuts later in 2026. Corporate fundamentals remain solid, though shorter-da...

Signals of strength? U.S. banks’ Q4 earnings highlight steady fundamentals and confidence heading into 2026. John Guarnera, Senior Corporate Analyst on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, analyzes the latest bank results and their implications for both economic fundamentals and sector positioning. Investment banking surged—M&A advisory revenues climbed over 40% in some banks—while equity...

Tight spreads, tighter credit: What’s next for high-yield? Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM’s BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, shares insights on high-yield market dynamics and potential credit risks in the year ahead. Spreads across high-yield markets remain tight, supported by strong investor interest and steady issuance. High-yield bond issuance can align with positive returns, und...

A year of high returns or high risks? Fixed income markets look to navigate 2026’s key challenges. In the latest edition of The Weekly Fix, Andrzej Skiba, BlueBay Head of U.S. Fixed Income at RBC GAM, explores a strong fixed income outlook for the new year, driven by carry income and economic momentum. However, the year also brings critical questions about monetary policy, the AI-driven capital wa...

Amid high-short term rates and diverging Fed opinions, investors have turned to money market funds, waiting for clarity on the economic outlook. In this week’s episode, Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager with RBC’s BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, highlights key trends shaping cash management strategies: The Fed lowered the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50–3.75%, with varied perspectives on t...

Is the AI boom testing market limits, or uncovering new opportunities in fixed income for 2026? Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores the outlook for U.S. fixed income markets in 2026, focusing on Federal Reserve policy, the credit cycle, and the impact of surging AI-driven debt issuance. We expect a hawkish rate cut to close 2025, si...