The Unknown Knowns

What happens when the tools that make us more efficient start removing some of the experiences through which we used to become competent? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores competence and what happens to human competence when the algorithm starts doing the work through which humans used to develop that competence. Every time we wrestle successfully with a problem, we’r...

How much freedom should we give people whose job is to think independently? And when does autonomy become abandonment? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns, Dr Angela Lewis explores the relationship between autonomy, motivation and effective leadership, particularly in intelligence environments where independent judgment is essential. Drawing on Self-Determination Theory and her own leadership ex...

What happens when we erase the parts of history that don't fit the stories we want to tell? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores how the preservation, distortion and deliberate erasure of history shape not only our understanding of the past, but also what we consider possible in the future. From the ancient Egyptian pharaoh Hatshepsut, whose legacy was deliberately obsc...

What makes some people look at an unfamiliar problem and think, I can figure this out ? In Part II of Figure-It-Out-Ology , Dr Angela Lewis explores the psychology behind our ability to navigate challenges we don’t yet know how to solve, from self-efficacy and resilient self-talk to productive struggle, identity and the experiences that teach us to trust our own ability to adapt. She also consider...

What do you do when you don’t know the answer? We tend to think of expertise as having the answers. But what about knowing what to do when you don’t? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores what she calls “figure-it-out-ology”: the ability to recognise the limits of what you know and still find a way forward. From intelligence targeting to Hawaiian sea turtles, Angela exam...

What is your best alternative if the deal in front of you falls through? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores BATNA, or Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement. This negotiation concept offers a useful framework for decision-making far beyond the negotiating table. Using stories ranging from a heavily discounted necklace in a Pakistani souq to job offers, university...

What happens when the system you're trying to understand keeps changing? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores complexity theory and the difference between complicated systems and complex adaptive systems. Using a childhood story about roller skates, a broken arm and a hospital waiting room, she explains how people, organisations, markets and adversaries adapt to one ano...

What happens when the world changes but your mental model does not? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores Bayesian reasoning through the unlikely lens of the 2006 animated film Over the Hedge . When a group of woodland animals discovers that a giant hedge has appeared across their familiar environment, they are forced to confront a problem that intelligence professionals...

What makes analysis trustworthy? It is not simply the quality of the information or the confidence of the analyst. It is the quality of the thinking that connects evidence to judgement. In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores the role of structured analytic techniques in making reasoning more transparent and easier to challenge. From questioning key assumptions and generat...

What can baseball teach us about intelligence analysis? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis turns to the world of baseball and the story of the Oakland Athletics to explore how data, strategy and human judgement interact when outcomes remain uncertain. Using Moneyball as a starting point, Angela examines the difference between improving the probability of success and actually c...

In this episode, Dr Angela Lewis explores what happens when intelligence concepts leave the classroom and start showing up in everyday life. Angela explains why experts can recognise underlying patterns across very different situations, while others can struggle to apply a concept outside the context in which they learned it. The real challenge is not memorising concepts like confirmation bias, gr...

Where is the line between influence and manipulation and how do you know when you've crossed it? In Part 2 of this series, Dr Angela Lewis moves from theory to practice, exploring how influence works in the real world and the ethical questions it raises. She examines why intent alone is not enough, how context shapes perception and why the most effective influence often leaves people feeling they...

What separates persuasion from manipulation? Is there a clear line, or do most forms of influence exist somewhere in between? In Part 1 of this two-part series, Dr Angela Lewis explores the psychology and ethics of influence through an unforgettable story about a couple who both tried to end their relationship without ever having an honest conversation. From there, she unpacks the broad spectrum o...

The Intelligence Cycle has shaped intelligence analysis for decades. But what if it only tells part of the story? In the final episode of the Intelligence 101-ish series, Dr Angela Lewis explores why intelligence is better understood as a dynamic system than a linear process. Using an unforgettable cooking disaster as a metaphor, Angela explains why following the steps is not the same as understan...

How do intelligence professionals turn scattered information into something decision makers can actually use? In Part 2 of the Intelligence 101-ish series, Dr Angela Lewis introduces one of the most influential frameworks in intelligence analysis: the Intelligence Cycle. From planning and collection to analysis, dissemination and feedback, Angela explains how intelligence moves from a simple quest...

What is intelligence? Contrary to popular belief, it has very little to do with spies, secrets or James Bond. In the first episode of a new three-part series, Dr Angela Lewis explores what intelligence actually is, why experts still debate its definition and why its real purpose is not collecting information but helping people make better decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Drawing on every...

What if the examples we remember most are distracting us from the lesson they were meant to teach? In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores how people learn, why certain ideas stick and what separates genuine expertise from simple familiarity. Starting with an unexpected piece of student feedback, Angela examines concepts such as salience, schema formation and transfer, exp...

In Part 2 of their conversation, Dr Angela Lewis is joined once again by former CIA officer Darrell Blocker to explore the habits and mindsets that underpin effective judgment. Building on their earlier discussion about intuition and expertise, Angela and Darrell examine the role of curiosity, observation and critical questioning in intelligence work and everyday decision-making. Drawing on storie...

In this two-part series, Dr Angela Lewis is joined by Darrell Blocker, a former CIA officer with 28 years of experience in intelligence operations and leadership. In part 1, they will explore one of the most misunderstood concepts in professional decision-making: intuition. Is it simply a gut feeling, or is it something built through years of experience, observation and training? Drawing on storie...

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores a deceptively simple question: why do some messages land while others fail? Drawing on intelligence tradecraft and organisational psychology, Angela examines how audience, context, and professional culture shape the reception of information. From briefing senior executives to building credibility in new environments, she explores why...

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores why some of the most persistent problems resist simple solutions. Rather than focusing on individual events or decisions, Angela examines how systems shape behaviour, outcomes and risk. From organisational challenges to geopolitical crises, she explains how feedback loops, incentives and interconnected relationships can create patter...

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis examines how assumptions shape interpretation and why slowing down the decision-making process can often reveal what people initially miss. The episode draws on concepts to explain how analysts can structure information to improve understanding rather than simply delivering facts. Angela also explores the growing role of AI in analytical envi...

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores the difference between imposter syndrome and intellectual humility and why the distinction matters in intelligence, leadership and decision-making environments. Drawing on psychology research, intelligence tradecraft and personal experience, Angela examines why high performers often question themselves most and why uncertainty is not...

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores what happens to judgment and decision-making under sustained pressure and how resilience can be built before cognitive overload takes hold. Using the “mint strategy” as a framework, Angela examines how small interventions can interrupt stress spirals and improve analytical thinking in high-pressure environments. The episode explores...

In this episode of The Unknown Knowns , Dr Angela Lewis explores the role silence plays in leadership, analysis and decision-making. From uncomfortable meetings to high-pressure intelligence environments, Angela examines why silence is often misunderstood and how it can reveal uncertainty and hidden assumptions. The episode explores when silence creates space for better thinking and when it become...