The State of It

Does Labour have the will to implement serious welfare reform and bring down the benefits bill? Alan Milburn's report on Neets, young people not in education, employment or training, comes out next week. Andy Burnham's plan is to spend money first, to bring the welfare bill down in the long run. What will voters make of that? Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party is promising £36bn in welfare...

After Donald Trump took an almighty shellacking in the US midterms, Andy Burnham is left waiting to see what the American president does next. Will Trump escalate the war in Iran or find a way out? The difference could mean the difference between soaring inflation and higher energy bills, or falling oil prices, stronger growth and relief for households. With Britain largely powerless to influence...

Brexit is back, but did it ever really go away? Andy Burnham is preparing to make some big concessions to the EU to get his latest deal over the line. On the table? Youth mobility, equal university fees for EU students and Britain aligning with EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars — all while the bloc pushes ahead with its ‘Made in Europe’ protectionist plan, which threatens to shut British industr...

John Healey’s first Budget is being dubbed the “Bronski Beat Budget”: a Chancellor running away from the big decisions on welfare and defence. With growth downgraded, energy bills set to soar and taxes at record highs, how much room for manoeuvre does he really have? And is this Burnham’s economy now, with the Chancellor merely keeping the engine running until the Prime Minister’s 10-year plan arr...

Arguing in the Labour party is ramping up. Andy Burnham has further fuelled the Brexit wars, floating a return to free movement and even EU membership, even though he claimed there was “nothing socialist” about free movement a decade ago. Is this political manoeuvring, or does Burnham himself know where he wants to end up? Meanwhile, Labour’s cabinet is split over North Sea drilling and immigratio...

Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane, a close ally of Andy Burnham, has sounded the alarm over the upcoming budget, warning the Prime Minister can’t “vibe-code his way to growth”. Patrick joins John Healey on the road, getting a glimpse of the Chancellor’s pro-business pitch — and the bottle of HP Sauce he keeps in his briefcase. Ben takes us inside the budget, unpacking four key ar...

Andy Burnham's welfare reforms are likely to start with more, not less, spending. In his review into Neets, young people not in education, employment or training, Alan Milburn will propose restricting access to universal credit for 16 to 24-year-olds, and spending money instead on employment support. The prime minister will tell MPs the government needs to spend first, cut later to bring about...

In this live recording of The State of It , Patrick and Steve assess the state of play ahead of budget day. John Healey is preparing a steady-as-she-goes budget, but with the big decisions on welfare, defence and tax rises pushed into next year, is Labour ducking the difficult choices? Meanwhile, AI evangelists want Britain to seize the opportunities, while Ed Miliband is pushing back on environme...

Andy Burnham has pulled the lever marked ‘Brexit’, threatening to reignite the wars of yesteryear. The soft left are delighted, but there’s unease in his cabinet. Is this a route back to a referendum, or just a meagre SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) deal? Or is Burnham already firing the opening shots of his election campaign — at the expense of the leave-voting areas he promised to win over? Has...

Zack Polanski's defeat in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election puts him in a tough position. The Green leader lost the by-election by 3,300 votes to Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Labour candidate. He's also facing criticism after the Green Party voted to declare that Zionism is racism. Polanski did not vote and has been accused of failing to show leadership. How tenable is his position now? Plu...

Kemi Badenoch's attack on Reform UK was all about character and her attack on Labour was all about economics. In her speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, she said she would to scrap inheritance tax on family homes and that under a Conservative government, couples would be able to leave an extra £1m inheritance tax free to their children. Badenoch was withering about Nigel...

The Labour Party is jubilant. Andy Burnham has fired the starting gun for the next general election with one of the most consequential conference speeches in recent memory. He used it to set out a series of major proposals, including an end to the triple lock, the abolition of first-past-the-post and closer ties with Europe. At the heart of his national project is a care service free at the point...

At the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, the mood is jubilant. They have a popular leader who can speak fluently in public. Andy Burnham's speech on Tuesday will be a big moment and it's expected to be full of announcements. Whitehall and cabinet ministers are trying to keep up. The problem, as always, is making the sums add up. The prime minister has made social care the main topic of...

John Healey, the chancellor, tells us his budget will offer people breathing space on both the cost of living and the cost of business. He said he was concerned about the rising price of fuel and that he wanted wealthy people to stay in Britain. In July, Andy Burnham, the prime minister, said that he would use "any flexibility" in the government's fiscal rules, but Healey was clear t...

The Labour Party conference starts in Liverpool this weekend. It's a chance for Andy Burnham to lay out his vision for the country. Expect worldview, class, solidarity and hope. How much criticism is likely to come from allies of Keir Starmer? Darren Jones, Starmer's former right-hand-man, has been giving interviews. Will others do the same? Could Burnham call a snap election? An MRP mega...

What a difference a year makes The Labour Party conference awaits. Has Andy Burnham's folksy charm and optimism taken the party as far as it can, or can he consolidate power and popularity? Six-party politics A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News puts Reform UK and the Conservative Party on level pegging for the first time in 18 months. Thursday's mega poll, the first MRP from YouGov in...

The Burnham Trump meeting Andy Burnham and Donald Trump will meet for the first time in New York next week. It's the biggest foreign policy moment in Burnham's premiership so far and there are many different ways in which it could go wrong. Burnham wants to be more confrontational with Trump than Starmer was...without damaging relations with the US. Autumn budget: the walls are closing in It's now...

Will Labour raise taxes? The cost of government borrowing is going up and up. That means the chancellor, John Healey, may well need to cut spending or raise taxes next month - and tax rises are much more likely. Labour MPs are overwhelmingly happy for the first time in living memory, but is that because they haven't woken up to the grim economic reality? The Labour Party conference slogan this yea...

MPs have voted against the assisted dying bill. The legislation was defeated by a margin of 16 votes, with 286 MPs in favour and 270 against, after 314 MPs backed the plan last year. It's a huge moment in the House of Commons. Why did the support for it fall away? How much of a difference did it make that Andy Burnham was not a supporter? Does it mean the issue is off the table for the foreseeable...

Ed Miliband , the foreign secretary, is announcing sanctions on Israel over West Bank settlements. Why is it such a priority for Andy Burnham 's government and what are the risks? It creates yet another diplomatic sticking point for the prime minister when he meets President Trump later this month. At Reform UK 's conference, a protester who disrupted Nigel Farage 's speech was whacked with a stic...

Reform UK’s 2026 conference has begun in Birmingham under a cloud after Channel 4 broadcast allegations of an attempt to circumvent the rules on foreign donations — prompting Nigel Farage to turn on two of his closest aides, Dan Jukes and James Orr.  Farage’s relationship with Jukes has been described as “father-son” so it’s a huge step for Farage and for Reform. Find out how it all unfolded...

Andy Burnham wants the first day back in the Commons to be all about hope. But how long can he and his chancellor John Healey keep up the feel-good vibes? After much talk of change, there's a whiff of continuity in the air. Find out what is making Labour MPs most nervous and angry - and why. The toughest calls on defence spending and the economy are deferred to 2027, creating a juggernaut for next...

Scoop: Ed Miliband is expected to announce two different kinds of sanctions over Israeli settlements in the West Bank. We have the details, but will the plan be enforceable? Get ready for politics on hyperspeed this autumn: a decision on North Sea oil and gas, an announcement about the prisoner early release scheme, two welfare reviews, conferences, a budget and a 10-year plan. But amidst the flur...

The prison early release scheme is Andy Burnham's first big test as prime minister. There are no good options. Can he make a successful argument that he's picked the least bad? No 10 wants the Autumn Budget to be all about devolution, but they also need to raise money - a lot of money. Fraser believes there are reasons to be cheerful about welfare reform. Can Labour MPs really get behind a plan th...

Nigel Farage has done the inevitable and defeated Count Binface in the Clacton by-election. To celebrate, Reform threw a gigantic Glastonbury-style festival on Clacton beach. Farage-fest 2026 featured disco, live music and even a Ferris wheel. But during his victory speech, Farage admitted for the first time that he may have made a mistake by failing to declare the £5m gift he received from Christ...