The Shkreli Pill

In this episode, Martin explains why he believes increasing Chinese semiconductor supply could create significant pressure for Micron and the broader memory market. He outlines his bearish outlook on semiconductor stocks, examining supply growth, memory pricing, capital spending, and industry cycles, before discussing ASML and Micron (MU) and the risks and catalysts shaping his current short these...

In this episode, Martin discusses how investors can evaluate buying opportunities during sharp market selloffs and determine when fear may have pushed prices below underlying value. He shares lessons on valuation, market psychology, position sizing, and managing risk when trading against panic, before analyzing Liquidia and examining its clinical prospects, competitive position, catalysts, valuati...

In this episode, Martin examines Cerebras and whether its AI chip architecture could challenge Nvidia’s dominance in accelerated computing. He also lays out his bullish thesis on MongoDB and discusses the factors that could support a $400 valuation target, before turning to Ginkgo Bioworks and explaining his bearish outlook on the company, including its business model, financial performance, valua...

In this episode, Martin reflects on a major loss from his short position in Kodiak Sciences and examines how a short squeeze moved the trade against him. He discusses position sizing, risk management, conviction, and the lessons he draws from losing millions on the position before turning to Nvidia, where he explores ways investors can search for alpha by analyzing expectations, valuation, AI dema...

In this episode, Martin reflects on a costly short position in Kodiak Sciences and examines what went wrong with the trade, including the risks of conviction, timing, and unexpected catalysts. He also discusses the possibility of OpenAI eventually going public and what such a move could mean for investors, before explaining why he believes many financial models fail to capture reality and how assu...

In this episode, Martin examines Meta’s relationship with Scale AI and discusses how the company could use its investment and Scale AI’s valuation to strengthen its position in the artificial intelligence race. He also questions Intel’s characterization of demand and examines the underlying semiconductor-market dynamics before revisiting Moderna, discussing its pipeline, valuation, catalysts, and...

In this episode, Martin lays out his bearish thesis on Kodiak Sciences and explains the factors driving his cautious outlook on the biotech company. He examines its clinical pipeline, trial data, competitive landscape, regulatory considerations, and valuation, discussing the risks and catalysts he believes investors should consider when evaluating the stock.

In this episode, Martin discusses a biotech company he believes faces significant regulatory risk from an upcoming FDA decision and examines the clinical and valuation factors behind his bearish outlook. He also analyzes Dell’s exposure to AI infrastructure and explains why its low-margin business model could limit the upside, before sharing his perspective on index investing, market valuations, a...

In this episode, Martin outlines his bearish thesis on AMD and examines what he believes is an overlooked weakness in the company’s position within the AI computing market. He also discusses Broadcom’s role in developing custom AI accelerators for Google and explores the implications of a major Oracle deal, focusing on AI infrastructure economics, competitive dynamics, capital spending, and the va...

In this episode, Martin discusses why GPUs have gained a major advantage over traditional CPUs for artificial intelligence workloads and examines Nvidia’s position within the rapidly expanding AI computing market. He also breaks down a mathematical assumption he believes is contributing to excessive technology valuations, exploring AI infrastructure economics, capital spending, expected returns, a...

In this episode, Martin discusses a sharp move in Moderna and examines the market dynamics behind what he describes as a major short squeeze. He also breaks down the declines in SanDisk and Micron, exploring memory pricing, semiconductor-cycle expectations, supply and demand, valuation, and changing investor sentiment while explaining the factors shaping his outlook on the memory sector.

In this episode, Martin explains why he remains skeptical of the investment case for quantum computing and outlines the reasoning behind his bearish outlook on the sector. He discusses technological limitations, commercialization timelines, competitive dynamics, valuations, and investor expectations, examining whether current quantum computing stocks adequately reflect the risks and uncertainty su...

In this episode, Martin discusses why he believes Nidec is positioned to benefit from the continued expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers. He also explains his decision to reduce exposure to technology stocks in favor of AbbVie, examining the pharmaceutical company’s valuation and growth outlook, before analyzing Lam Research (LRCX) and the opportunities and risks surrounding semiconduct...

In this episode, Martin explains why he is taking bearish positions in semiconductor stocks and examines what he believes is changing beneath the surface of the industry. He discusses AI-driven demand, valuations, capital spending, supply dynamics, and the semiconductor cycle before analyzing Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE) and Intel, outlining the catalysts, risks, and factors shaping his current inves...

In this episode, Martin lays out his bearish thesis on AMD and explains why he believes expectations surrounding AI growth have pushed its valuation to unsustainable levels. He also discusses the outlook for Ozempic and the increasingly competitive GLP-1 drug market, analyzing Novo Nordisk’s pipeline, market position, valuation, and the risks he believes could challenge its future growth.

In this episode, Martin discusses the information gap between institutional and retail investors, examining how access to specialized datasets, research tools, and market intelligence can create advantages on Wall Street. He also explores effective altruism in Silicon Valley, discussing its ideas, influence, and the incentives surrounding the movement while sharing his perspective on how wealth, t...

In this episode, Martin breaks down his current short positions and explains the reasoning behind his bearish trades. He discusses his concerns about QCLS and the company’s development since its launch, then analyzes Nebius and Abivax, examining their businesses, valuations, catalysts, competitive positions, and the risks shaping his current investment outlook on each stock.

In this episode, Martin brings one of his top traders onto the stream for a discussion about markets, investing, and developing an edge. They explore trade selection, position sizing, risk management, and the research process behind identifying opportunities, while sharing lessons on trading psychology, discipline, and what separates consistently strong decision-making from ordinary market specula...

In this episode, Martin discusses his decision to leave Q/C Technologies and explains his concerns about the company’s approach to financial engineering. He reflects on disagreements over capital allocation, financing, and corporate strategy, while sharing his perspective on the financial consequences of stepping away and the broader lessons investors and founders can draw from conflicts over how...

In this episode, Martin reflects on leaving one of his companies and discusses the financial consequences of that decision, along with the lessons he took from the experience. He also explains why he believes Ultragenyx is significantly undervalued and analyzes QCLS, examining each company’s pipeline, valuation, catalysts, and the risks shaping his current investment outlook.

In this archive lesson, Martin continues his discussion of finance, investing, and stock analysis, breaking down the principles he believes are most useful for understanding businesses and financial markets. He covers valuation, financial statements, risk, expected returns, and portfolio construction, using practical examples to explain his approach to fundamental research, trading, and investment...

In this archive clip, Martin returns to livestreaming following his release from prison and reflects on his experiences, how his perspective changed during his time away, and his plans moving forward. He also discusses investing, financial markets, biotechnology, and business, answering questions from viewers and sharing lessons on trading, valuation, risk, and decision-making during his first str...

In this episode, Martin discusses his views on simulation theory, religion, and the nature of reality. He explores philosophical questions surrounding consciousness, existence, belief, and whether reality could be simulated, while explaining his skepticism toward religious claims and debating different perspectives on faith, science, and how people make sense of the world.

In this episode, Martin challenges the idea that successful investing is simply about correctly predicting which direction a stock will move. He discusses why having an edge, properly sizing positions, managing risk, and allocating capital efficiently can matter more than being right on individual trades. The episode explores expected value, probabilities, portfolio construction, and how investors...

In this episode, Martin confronts antisemitic comments appearing in his chat and challenges the arguments and stereotypes behind them. He discusses the importance of rejecting prejudice and discrimination while responding directly to members of the audience, examining how misinformation, inflammatory rhetoric, and harmful generalizations can spread through online communities.