The MOST Important Thing

Is the traditional 60/40 portfolio still fit for purpose? What should investors look for in a systematic fund manager? And how is AI changing the careers of people working in finance? In Part 2 of The Most Important Thing, Alan O’Sullivan continues his conversation with Dr. Philip Seager, Head of Portfolio Strategy at Capital Fund Management (CFM). Beginning with the 2008 financial crisis, Philip...

Can artificial intelligence outperform traditional fund managers? And how much of successful investing is genuine skill rather than market luck? In Part 1 of The Most Important Thing, Alan O’Sullivan speaks with Dr. Philip Seager, Head of Portfolio Strategy at Capital Fund Management (CFM), about the science behind quantitative investing and what it means for constructing more resilient portfolios...

In this episode of The Long & Short, Ivan Yates and Dr Alan O’Sullivan revisit the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the 2008 global financial crisis and today’s concerns around AI valuations, defence stocks and changing investment regimes. From speculative bubbles to excessive private debt, they explore why crashes happen, what investors can learn from previous cycles, and whether the old investment...

Are Bonds a Buy? This episode explores whether bonds are becoming attractive again amid sticky inflation, rising fiscal concerns, and the AI spending boom. Alan argues that bond markets are pricing in deeper risks, but the best opportunity to buy may come after a significant sell-off in US stocks. Key topics Why Treasury yields have fallen despite hotter-than-expected inflation How public debt, fi...

Will artificial intelligence transform economic growth—or are expectations running far ahead of reality? And what does the rise of AI mean for graduates, white-collar professionals and the future of work? In Part 2 of his conversation with Dr Alan O’Sullivan, renowned economist and Northwestern University professor Robert J. Gordon challenges predictions of limitless AI-driven growth. He explains...

Is gold the ultimate portfolio insurance — or has its extraordinary rise made it too risky? And could a changing global monetary order reshape how we invest? In this episode of The MOST Important Thing, Dr Alan O’Sullivan and Ivan Yates examine gold’s role in a diversified portfolio, the central-bank buying driving demand and the question of trust in the US dollar. They also discuss silver, copper...

Professor Robert J. Gordon, one of the world’s leading economists on productivity and long-run economic growth, joins Alan O’Sullivan to examine why the extraordinary gains of the past two centuries may be becoming harder to repeat. In Part 1, Gordon explains the difference between economic growth and productivity, traces the three major industrial revolutions, and discusses why the period from 19...

In Episode 2 of The Long & Short, Ivan Yates and Dr. Alan O'Sullivan examine three of the major forces shaping economies, markets and long-term investment decisions: debt, demographics and sustainability. The discussion moves from the global sustainability challenge and the renewed debate around nuclear energy to rising government debt and the consequences of increasingly heavy debt burde...

In this special episode of The Most Important Thing, the roles are reversed as Alan O’Sullivan sits down with Ivan Yates following the release of his new book, The Game of Life: And How to Win It. Drawing on 50 years of experience across politics, business and broadcasting, Ivan reflects on the lessons that shaped his life – from leaving school early and becoming Ireland’s youngest TD at the time,...

  Mike Bell on History, Cycles, and Building Portfolios for Different Regimes Mike Bell walks through the framework he uses to understand markets: study financial history, identify the cycle you are in, and match assets to the regime rather than to a simple stock-bond split. He explains why politics, demographics, debt, and central bank policy matter as much as traditional market data. In this int...

Episode Description What does it actually take to gain an edge in financial markets?   In Part 1 of our conversation with Mike Bell, CFA, Mike joins Alan to explain the investment framework he has developed over more than two decades in markets — beginning with a front-row seat to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.   Mike explains why investors need to both "zoom out" and "zoom in&qu...

Description   The global order is changing — but what does that actually mean for investors?  In Episode 1 of The Long & Short , Ivan Yates and Alan O’Sullivan examine the emergence of a more multipolar world , the decline of the post-war global order, and the growing influence of geopolitics on markets and investment decisions.  From the rise of China and Russia to Trump, tariffs, deglobalisa...

In Part 2 of our conversation, Anne-Marie Curtin discusses how family, career pivots, and mentorship shaped her path, plus the practical ways she built confidence as a speaker and writer. Key topics A major theme is communication: she describes executive coaching, Toastmasters, writing discipline, and how she learned to be concise, clearer, and more confident in the room. She talks about the suppo...

AnneMarie Curtin has had a fascinating career spanning financial regulation, crisis management, consulting and global banking .  She spent part of her career on the regulatory side, leading supervisory teams at both the Central Bank of Ireland and the Bank of England , during the enormous regulatory changes that followed the Global Financial Crisis. Her experience subsequently took her into consul...

Prof. Brian O'Kelly on banking risk, debt, and the future of finance Alan interviews Brian O'Kelly, Emeritus Professor of Finance at Dublin City University and former chair of the SCA advisory committee at the National Treasury Management Agency, about how his career moved from engineering into finance, then into academia and risk management. The conversation focuses on banking regulatio...

Justin Huhn on China, uranium scarcity, and how to think about the nuclear investing cycle This is part two of a deep-dive conversation with Justin Huhn, founder and publisher of Uranium Insider, focused on the nuclear fuel cycle, uranium supply-demand dynamics, and what investors should watch next. The discussion centers on China’s reactor buildout, the role of term pricing versus spot pricing, s...

Episode Summary Alan is joined by Michael Lewis, Head of ESG Research at DWS and a three-decade veteran of Deutsche Bank's FX, commodities, and sustainability research desks. Drawing on three DWS research papers co-authored with Stefan Kutscher (Head of Stewardship), Michael and Alan trace the energy transition from raw materials to the grid to the geopolitics reshaping it — arguing that &quo...

Justin Huhn on uranium’s cyclicality, term pricing, and why the sector still has runway Justin Huhn, founder and publisher of Uranium Insider, breaks down why he moved from technical trading into a deep fundamental thesis on uranium and nuclear energy. He explains how supply discipline, rising electricity demand, and long-dated contracting are shaping the market today. The conversation also covers...

Why Energy Security is the Key to Future Growth: Uranium and Grid Reassessment This episode delves into the critical, yet often overlooked, role of energy in the global economy, focusing on the future of uranium, nuclear power, and infrastructure challenges that will shape investment opportunities over the next decade.  Hosted by Alan O'Sullivan, this energy sub-series features insights from...

Join us for an insightful highlight reel discussion with Sebastian Page,  Head of Global Multi-Asset at T. Rowe Price , as he shares his journey from growing up around finance to becoming a leading voice in asset allocation and risk management. Discover practical insights into forecasting, fat tails, regime shifts, and the importance of judgment and humility in investing. Main Topics: The influenc...

Global Market Shifts and Geopolitics: Insights from Louis Vincent Gave In this episode, Alan O'Sullivan interviews Louis Vincent Gave, a seasoned market analyst based in Hong Kong, to explore the evolving landscape of global markets, geopolitics, and economic policies. They discuss China's demographic challenges, US exceptionalism, deglobalization trends, and their long-term implications...

  In this the second episode of our educational sub-series “The MOST important Insight”, Alan highlights the 5 key takeaways from his conversation with Gold expert Ronald-Peter Stoeferle.  Dive into this compelling discussion on the evolving role of gold in the global monetary system, the influence of emerging markets, and how geopolitical shifts shape gold's future value. Discover insights o...

The Future of Quant Investing: Strategies, Factors, and Portfolio Insights with Pim Van Vliet.  Explore the intricacies of factor investing, risk management, and portfolio construction through insights from Pim Van Vliet, a leading quant expert from Robeco. This episode demystifies how quantitative strategies adapt in evolving markets, emphasizing low volatility and multi-factor approaches to opti...

 Welcome to The MOST Important INSIGHT —the companion series to The MOST Important Thing podcast. Every week I take a one-hour conversation with one of the world's leading economists, investors or business thinkers and distil it into the most important ideas and insights you need to know. If you're short on time but still want world-class insights, you're in exactly the right place....

This episode reveals why low-risk stocks can outperform when markets get ugly, and how quant strategies turn academic research into real-world results. If you want smarter investing insights without the fluff, this one’s for you.   Low Volatility Investing in Financial Markets: Insights from Pim Van Vliet Explore the fascinating world of low volatility strategies with Pim Van Vliet, chief quant st...