The Market Chronicles

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or m...

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or m...

This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or m...

https://www.themarketchronicle.com/subscribe Welcome to the Market Chronicles podcast, hosted by Michael Kramer. Stay ahead of the curve with in-depth analysis of the stock market, including S&P 500 trends, bond yields, global currencies, and key indicators like GDP, PCE, and employment reports. Plus, explore macroeconomic themes, from Federal Reserve strategies to the latest updates from the...

Volume levels in the S&P 500 Futures have fallen to their lowest levels since mid-December. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company...

Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and...

The VIX, Rates, and Oil all fell on Tuesday January 21, 2025 Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of...

In this episode of The Market Chronicles , Michael Kramer dives deep into the latest economic data and market trends shaping the financial landscape. Starting with a detailed analysis of the December jobs report, he unpacks the impressive drop in unemployment, significant labor market revisions, and how these changes set the stage for January’s anticipated updates. Michael also explores inflation...

The stock market had a relatively quiet day, with the S&P 500 closing essentially flat, up just 16 basis points. Key focus remains on the 5870 support level, which has been tested multiple times. A breach of this level could signal a larger decline, potentially completing a head-and-shoulders pattern. Equity markets are closed tomorrow, while the bond market remains open until 2 PM. Friday’s r...

Today’s episode of Market Chronicles dives into the market’s volatile reaction to stronger-than-expected economic data. Key reports, including the ISM Services Prices Paid Index and JOLTS, revealed persistent inflationary pressures, sending bond yields sharply higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.69%, and inflation swaps broke out, signaling rising inflation expectations. Stocks took a...

In this episode of The Market Chronicles , Michael Kramer breaks down a choppy trading session on January 6, where the S&P 500 closed up 55 basis points after giving back earlier gains. NVIDIA stood out with a 3.5% rise, driving much of the day’s strength, while broader market breadth deteriorated significantly, with more decliners than advancers by the close. Key sectors like energy, financia...

This week on The Market Chronicles , host Michael Kramer dives into the critical economic data that could shape interest rate movements. With key reports like JOLTS, ISM Services, and non-farm payrolls on the horizon, the stage is set for potential breakouts in 10- and 30-year Treasury yields. Will stronger-than-expected data push rates higher, tightening financial conditions and impacting markets...

This week is set to be pivotal for the financial markets as critical economic data rolls in, shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy path. Since September, markets have significantly adjusted their rate cut expectations, now projecting fewer than two cuts for 2025. Strong economic data in the coming days could reinforce the view that the rate-cutting cycle may be nearing its e...

Join Michael Kramer on The Market Chronic for an in-depth analysis of today’s market moves, including significant swings in the S&P 500, Nvidia’s pivotal role, and the implications of falling demand for leverage. Stay ahead with key insights on economic data, market sentiment, and what’s next for investors. Charts used with the permission of Bloomberg Finance L.P. This report contains independ...

Welcome to Market Chronicles ! In this episode, host Michael Kramer dives into the latest developments in the financial markets as we begin 2025. Michael discusses the critical factors shaping the year, including liquidity challenges, the Federal Reserve’s reverse repo facility trends, and the rising interest rate environment. Key economic data like the ISM Manufacturing Index and inflation swaps...

Today’s market action highlighted ongoing challenges, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.07% and market breadth continuing to show significant weakness. Of the S&P 500, 470 stocks declined, while only 31 advanced, signaling bearish sentiment. Key breadth indicators, such as the McClellan Oscillator (-43) and Summation Index (-351), underscore the fragility beneath headline numbers. Secondary indi...

Michael Kramer of the Mott Capital Chronicles Podcast discusses the week ahead in markets as we approach 2025. With a holiday-shortened trading week and limited economic data, key focus points include housing data, continuing jobless claims on January 2, and the ISM Manufacturing Report on January 3, expected at 48.2. Last week’s spike in jobless claims to 1.91 million could raise concerns if not...

Stocks closed the week with significant turbulence as liquidity constraints and rising rates continued to pressure the market. The steepening yield curve and climbing long-term rates are placing additional strain on already fragile conditions. Questions are mounting about whether this is the start of a fundamental shift or a temporary reaction to year-end balance sheet adjustments, with volatility...

In this post-holiday market update, the S&P 500 remained flat amid light trading, with futures volume reflecting the season’s subdued activity. Treasury yields fluctuated, with the 10-year settling at 4.59% after a strong seven-year auction, signaling continued investor interest in U.S. debt. Technical patterns on the 30-year Treasury suggest potential upward movement, hinting at further yield...

The S&P 500 rallied by about 75 basis points today, but it remains a market where solid breadth is lacking. Breadth was notably weak in the morning, though it improved slightly as the day progressed. Nvidia emerged as the leading stock, contributing 34% of the day’s gains according to data from the Bloomberg 500 Index, while Broadcom added 15%. This translated to the Bloomberg 500 gaining near...

This holiday-shortened trading week will bring limited market activity, with US markets closing early at 1 PM Eastern on Christmas Eve and fully closed on December 25th. European markets will be shut on December 25th and 26th, while Japan and China will remain open, offering some global trading opportunities. Key focus will be on Treasury auctions for 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes, following weak resul...

The stock market plunged sharply this week, and I’m here to explain why we might be on the brink of a massive deleveraging event, triggered after a period of eerily low realized volatility. Adding fuel to the fire, margin levels have skyrocketed over the past month, even as reserve balances have plummeted. Investors seem to be turning desperately to the overnight repo market to amplify their lever...

The Market Chronicles is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The Dow broke its 10-day losing streak today; however, the bad news is it only finished the day up 0.04%. So, while the streak was broken, it was just barely. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ended the day essentially flat. It was up about 70 to 80 basis points earl...

Take Advantage of Special Discounts on The Market Chronicles Paid Services As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, but the market was caught off guard by the Fed’s positioning regarding future rate cuts. Looking back, it was somewhat obvious. Earlier today, I shared a video for Market Chronicles paid members, highlighting how analysts were expecting more rate cuts than what the Fed Fund...

See 2024 Year-End TMC Specials It was another weak day for the markets. The S&P 500 closed lower by 39 basis points, but weakness was more pronounced in the RSP equal-weight index, down 80 basis points. The Dow dropped for the ninth consecutive day, losing 66 basis points. Breadth continues to deteriorate across the marketplace. In the S&P, 378 stocks were down, while only 120 were up. Looking at...