The Load Letter

Dry van spot rates have topped contract rates for the first time since 2022, and DAT says it's a capacity crunch, not a demand surge, which means brokers need to renegotiate their worst contract lanes now. The episode also covers a seven-month streak of Class 8 order growth, EPA's proposed NOx and 2027 emissions rollback, over $11 million in stolen truckloads recovered by Indiana State Pol...

Trucking capacity conditions just hit their strongest reading ever, but DAT's ton-mile data shows the rate surge is being driven by trucks leaving the market, not by stronger shipper demand, so brokers need to play carrier and shipper conversations differently this week. Also covered: a shaky Iran ceasefire pushing diesel and fuel surcharge risk higher, the Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merge...

Crude oil jumped six percent overnight after Trump said the Iran ceasefire is over, pushing diesel to $4.92 a gallon and forcing brokers into fuel surcharge conversations before their margins take the hit. This episode also covers a legal ruling widening broker liability around carrier vetting, an early and uneven ocean peak season driving up transpacific rates, DAT data showing today's rate s...

Eight defendants face charges in a $10 million cargo theft conspiracy built on carrier impersonation, and brokers who skip verification steps could be next in the crosshairs. This episode also covers new fraud-fighting tech from InMotion Global and SearchCarriers, softening ISM services data flagging risk in ag-adjacent lanes, Toyota's Tacoma production shift from Mexico to San Antonio, Lovesa...

The Montgomery case just got sent back to district court in Illinois, and it's set to keep broker liability exposure front and center for the rest of the year, so carrier vetting paperwork needs to be airtight. This episode also covers Mexico's incoming customs crackdown on cross-border freight, why top carriers are getting pickier about which brokers they'll run for, Descartes' ac...

Working a desk on the Friday before the Fourth? Good — because CargoNet is flagging elevated theft risk starting right now, and organized theft groups specifically target this weekend when staffing is thin, facilities are closed, and loaded trailers sit unattended. Today's briefing covers what to do before your freight moves tonight, Highway requiring ELD hookups for all carriers post-Montgome...

Ghost carriers — operators using acquired MC numbers and fabricated digital identities built specifically to pass automated vetting checks — are the fraud scaling fastest and quietest right now, and if your onboarding stops at a safety rating and a COI glance, you're exactly who this scheme is designed to beat. Today's briefing covers what friction-on-purpose looks like in carrier vetting,...

Ocean container rates from China to the West Coast have tripled since March — not because demand tripled, but because a handful of foreign carriers are throttling capacity like a cartel, and that squeeze is about to hit your desk as a domestic drayage and dry van scramble around Southern California and the Inland Empire. Today's briefing covers how to get ahead of the port capacity crunch befo...

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index just confirmed it in writing — dry van spot rates up 31.29% year over year in May, contract rates up 9%, and a market that has flipped from a three-year recession into a genuine upcycle. Today's briefing covers why the gap between spot and contract is the danger zone on your book right now and why shippers watching that 31% climb are receptive to renewal con...

Over a million dollars in data center equipment recovered from a suburban Chicago truck yard — stolen trailers that originated in Alabama and Florida — and if you're booking copper, server hardware, or anything tied to the infrastructure boom, you're a target whether you know it or not. Today's briefing covers why high-value freight vetting needs to tighten before the holiday week, whe...

The produce season just handed off from Florida to Georgia — and rates stepped up in the process, making your Georgia reefer capacity the most actionable move on the board today. We also cover World Cup host-city reefer rates breaking from the national trend, climbing cargo theft now baked into route planning, small carrier distress and bankruptcies, a new AI booking agent for brokers, CSX's d...

Transportation prices just hit 96.0 on the Logistics Managers' Index — the highest reading for any metric in the history of the index — and that number is your permission to stop discounting into a rising market. Today's briefing covers why this week is the moment to reprice your contractual lanes before bid season catches you flat, Texas flatbed running hot at $2.94 with steel and buildin...

The May Logistics Managers' Index just printed Transportation Prices at 96.0 — the highest reading for any metric in the history of the index. The soft market thesis is officially dead. Today's briefing covers what that number means for every rate agreement you signed in the last 12 months and why this week is the moment to find the underwater lanes in your book and reprice them, ITS Logis...

Spot and contract rates kept climbing through May and June — not because freight is booming, but because the trucks and drivers simply aren't there. Today's briefing covers why a capacity-constrained market is a fundamentally different game than a demand-driven run-up, and why the broker with carrier relationships wins while the broker spot-bidding every load gets squeezed. We also get int...

Flatbed at $2.94, reefer at $2.68, dry van at $2.37, and Brent crude drifting down to $79 on Iran talks — the market is flashing strength and the fuel picture is quietly improving. Today's briefing covers why lenders launching an equipment financing program for owner-operators is capital betting on recovery, and what that means for the ultra-tight capacity pockets you've been pushing rate...

The Strait of Hormuz just reopened after a blockade that gutted import flows 93% year over year, Brent crude fell to $74, and reefer spot is sitting at six cents a mile — a floor that tells you capacity is bleeding and your best carriers need a fair rate right now or they won't be there when this thing turns. Today's briefing covers what a restocking surge from Hormuz-affected commodities...

C.H. Robinson is now a named defendant in the first real post-Montgomery broker liability test in a Florida courtroom, and how this one breaks could touch every brokerage in the country regardless of size. Today's briefing covers what that case means for your carrier vetting file right now, a Flexport warning that a new tariff wave could replace expiring duties by late July and why cross-borde...

Tckload market is splitting into two economies running side by side,and DAT' data says the volatility is the new floor,not a phase. Today' briefing breaks down an early peak surge frontloading freight into Los Angeles,fleets handing out driver pay raises as a leading indicator of tightening capacity,the CSCMP State of Logistics structural reset,shifting customs rules reshaping sourcing lan...

We're living in a split freight market, and the half you're standing in determines whether you're winning or bleeding right now. Today's briefing covers how to segment your book between resilient shippers holding steady and discretionary accounts pulling back — and why a blanket "the market is soft" read will get you killed, a warning flare on flatbed with ag equipment sa...

A $1.7 million load of Walmart-bound freight walked out the door using a legitimate carrier's stolen identity — and the FBI says this method is becoming routine. Today's briefing covers why the MC number on your rate con doesn't prove who's actually driving, how AI is letting fraudsters spin up convincing carrier profiles and spoof phone calls clean enough to fool a gut check, and...

Volvo just put a date on driverless trucks — safety drivers off U.S. highways in Q1 2027, targeting 300 trucks by year-end — and the lanes they're going after first are the dense, predictable dry van corridors where your margin is already thinnest. Today's briefing covers what autonomous capacity flooding commodity lanes means for where your value lives in the next two years, PepsiCo expan...

Truckload carriers stood up in front of investors this week and called it — a multiyear rate upcycle, not a one-quarter bounce. Today's briefing covers what that means for the shipper bids you're building right now and the carrier relationships you need locked before everyone else figures out the game changed. Florida reefer's shortage-era spike is already unwinding while Yakima heats...

Fuel prices aren't a blip — they're a siege, inflation just got confirmed by DC Velocity and the NAM, and your cost structure is getting rewritten whether you've priced for it or not. Today's briefing covers why the fuel surcharge conversation needs to happen with your shippers now before summer contracts lock you into rates that bleed you, Amazon opening its LTL network to all shi...

ISM Manufacturing PMI hit 54.0 in May — strongest reading since 2022 — and that's your green light for industrial dry van and flatbed lanes heading into the back half of the year. Today's briefing covers where to build carrier relationships right now before the volume shows up and you're scrambling, and the catch buried in the import data: the NRF is flagging a front-loaded container s...

FTR's Trucking Conditions Index just hit 11.6 — the strongest reading since February 2022 — and the freight recession is officially breaking. Today's briefing covers what that means for the rate conversations you need to be having with shippers before the market has them for you, California citrus and Florida produce running hot with Dallas reefer up 20% and the window to lock capacity nar...