The Bayesian Conspiracy

Stephan Wäldchen at Lighthaven See this video on YouTube Apply to the Illiad Intensive Out of this Box – the AI Musical

A bunch of Rationalist gossip and updates, and a meta discussion about the podcast. LINKS Caroline Ellison has joined Manifund TracingWoodgrains on Austin + WBE OpenAI Scraps Release of New AI Model Over Safety Concerns Clause stopped cheating Anthropic gave their AI a biolab Department of War going after Effective Altruism The Economist calls EA “the 21st century’s most important social mov...

Moma talks about how Aella’s influence makes her community safer for women. Also her SlutCon 2026 experience. See video at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk9EKkpDMFg&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

We talk to Keltan, from MIRI, about his opinions of short form video, PlzDontKillUs, telling our parents about AI, and how Eneasz’s first short-form video fares. LINKS Keltan’s Twitter (and secret substack , don’t tell him we linked it!) Eneasz’s prior interviews with PlzDontKillUs fellows Milo and Vishal If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies Eneasz’s 7 Reasons video on...

We asked Matt to come on for a different topic, and we had to pivot to the latest AI stuff because it’s so big. LINKS Rick Rescorla , a 9/11 hero we talk about Our previous episodes on The Void pt 1 and pt2 , and GPT3 Richard Ngo on how AI Safety only increased Capabilities Paid Bonus content for the week  –  Preshow Chat ,  Full Video Our Patreon , or if you prefer  Our SubStack Hey look, w...

A lot of updates and feedback before the main post. Then we get into The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments by Liron. LINKS The Power to Demolish Bad Arguments The Overhang forecasting & futurism conference in DC I Think Knot read-through podcast of The Knot (or get audio ) at HPMORpodcast.com BayesWatch Ordinary Abundance Paid Bonus content for the week  –  Preshow Chat ,  Full Video 00:01:14.00...

Vishal talks about PlzDontKillUs and short form video culture. Plus AI Doom! Vishal’s Blog Vishal’s Compute Cop video, and also all the rest

Wes joins us! We discuss Aella’s post The Other Sexual Orientation . Then we find fault with a Kegan-level-4 post about how CNC Kink should be disappeared . LINKS The Other Sexual Orientation A Bad Tweet The Sex & Sensibility Podcast The Details of the HuggingFace Incident AI Message Board via Zvi Paid Bonus content for the week  –  Preshow Chat ,  Full Video 00:02:32 – Follow-up on the...

Milo’s favorite video – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I8YYwlIWI2E&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss plzdontkillus – https://portal.plzdontkillus.com/home?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Original video:

Jessiah Mellot talks about HPMOR, and the video essay he made about HPMOR for PlzDontKillUs. Watch this on Youtube here see Jessiah’s video essay here

First feedback, then we talk about OpenAI’s latest megamodel independently commiting cybercrime in a world-first incident. Then the Haters who hate altruism when it’s the outgroup’s charities. Also a brief nod to Stochastic Terrorism. LINKS Scott Alexander on the HuggingFace hack The Effective-Altruism Comeback Scanning Tons of Books Against Stochastic Terrorism Paid Bonus conten...

We go through AI2040 Plan A in years. LINKS AI-2040 AskWho Casts Pro Tomas Bjartur’s “The Company Man” and “The Origami Men” Paid Bonus content for the week  –  Preshow Chat ,  Full Video 00:04:33 – AI-2040: Plan A 01:14:41 – Guild of the Rose 01:19:52 – Thank the Supporter! Our Patreon , or if you prefer  Our SubStack Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possibl...

Steven is joined by the hosts of the Sex and Sensibility podcast! Join us as we explore the vibrant world of VibeCamp, a unique gathering where creativity, curiosity, and community collide. From unconventional events like imagining eating someone to building playgrounds, this episode dives into the eclectic and wholesome spirit of VibeCamp. Join us as we explore the vibrant experiences of Vibe Cam...

Eneasz and Steven are at LessOnline/SummerCamp and Steven was lucky enough to attend a short presentation by Damon (Daystar Eld) and Ivy on How to Become a Romantic. The presentation was too short for Steven’s satisfaction, so we found a time slot to record a (too short) episode. LINKS Damon/Daystar Eld Ivy’s X handle and website Guild of the Rose Paid Bonus content for the week – Full...

Our values are robust against Moloch because they were forged in his flames. LINKS When does competition lead to recognisable values? Our episode 18 – Robin Hanson Interview Chex Quest FarmKind – Animal Welfare Offsets (matching code “cagefree”) Paid Bonus content for the week  –  Preshow Chat ,  Full Video 00:03:02 – A Good Post-AGI Future 00:15:07 – Human Values Were Forged in Malthu...

In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again! Fill out  Steven’s 3-question survey! LINKS Our episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has Evolved EA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by Elizabeth Vegan Health Advice by Ozy Dairy cows make their misery expensive (but their calves can’t) by Elizabet...

The stupid red-button/blue-button discourse came back. Eneasz thought he could sit out this round until Aella went Chaos God with her social media app, Glosso. Fill out  our new 2-question survey ! LINKS PlzDontKillUs Inkhaven Presents podcast The Knot webfic The Mind Reviver Glosso Stupid Tim Urban with his stupid button-resurrection oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to EA stuff ” art...

We discuss how far the right to be wrong goes, a recent intra-rat kerfuffle, and why random violence is bad. And it’s secretly all about AI Doom. Fill out our 2-question survey ! LINKS One Week in the Rat Farm Kelsey’s religious liberalism tweet Scott’s tweet in response to Robby from MIRI Scott’s tweet in reply to Ronny from Lightcone Only Law Can Prevent Extinction by Eli...

Matt returns to discuss a post urging us to chill out on AI if there isn’t imminent doom in 2028. There is no video or preshow chat today, due to user error in setting up an in-person video recording. Sorry. LINKS Consider chilling out in 2028 The Scary Bridge Kill Your Friend’s Cat The UnSlop AI Fiction competition The new Guild of the Rose Paid Bonus content for the week – none, sorr...

We talk about three EA-adjacent articles, hitting veganism , directing your donations , and community . LINKS Why you should eat meat – even if you hate factory farming by KatWoods Donations, The Fifth Year , by Jenn Promises , by Harri Bayesian Conspiracy 28 – Effective Altruism The Case For Sardines “ oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to EA stuff ” article Gwern on...

We relive the last 48 hours of the future of humanity being wrestled over. The Pentagon wants to use Claude for comprehensive mass surveillance of Americans and autonomous kill-bots, and Anthropic says no. The Pentagon retaliates with extreme prejudice. With guest-star Matt. LINKS Washington Post summary Anthropic’s response Trump’s response Hegseth’s unhinged lunacy We Will Not...

We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLM s LINKS Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI Gwern’s Writing for LLMs Tracing Woodgrain’s Reliable Sources Shambaugh’s An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on Me Eneasz’s Stone Age Billionaire Can’t Word Good InkHaven LessOnline The main purpose of the AFFINE Seminar is to gi...

Eneasz talks a bit about his CFAR experience, and we discuss DaystarEld’s Epistemically Honest Reassurance LINKS CFAR’s home page Upcoming CFAR workshops our episode 152 – Frame Control with Aella Epistemically Honest Reassurance Pokémon, Origin of the Species (also in audio ) Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter , Full Show Video 00:00:56 – Announcements & Feedback 00...

WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer . LINKS Audio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer , from AskWho William’s blog, “As Our Days” ACX Non-Book Review 2025 Winners Post Just HPMOR substack , an...

Discussing Ben Pace’s recent post on the Rationalist Vices . LINKS The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists (includes AI audio version) Lightcone Fundraiser! 2025 LessWrong Census/Survey Simone & Malcom Collins vs Reporter on whether genes exist MIRI is hiring Slime Mold Time Mold’s long-delayed Lithium response If Anyone Builds It Everyone Dies Dear Grom by Eneasz Paid Bonus conten...