Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on Inside the Economy, we address what the future may hold for the economy following a period of strong market performance. Strong corporate earnings have helped drive the markets, but new money entering the markets has also played an important role. Where is some of that money being invested? Real disposable income has recently turned negative following a surge in inflation. What short...

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the shifting dynamics of consumer spending, housing, capital markets, and global trade. Data shows that retail and gasoline spending have surged to become major drivers of year-over-year spending growth, pushing total monthly growth toward the 6% mark in early 2026 alongside steady services spending. Where would our economic growth stand without these...

This week on Inside the Economy, we examine jobs and spending, inflation, and economies outside the United States. Since 2020, hiring demand has increased across the South and in parts of the country such as Idaho, while many Western states have experienced a decline. At the same time, new job creation remains strong. Are there any potential warning signs or anomalies behind the recent uptick in n...

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore inflation, interest rates, Venezuela and other trading partners. U.S. inflation accelerated in April, likely driven by continued increases in gasoline prices, groceries, rent, airfare, and other everyday expenses. As inflation pressures persist, small businesses may feel a greater financial strain than larger corporations. New data highlights which state...

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore personal income, S&P 500 profit and earnings growth, and world oil inventories. New data for disposable personal income shows a jump in income, most likely due to government employees returning to work. Personal outlays also increased in February and March, but what might be driving the rise in spending? On the employment front, the market continues...

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess the cost of living, impact from the Iran conflict, and global markets including global trade. Consumer spending remains positive, yet the pace is beginning to slow alongside a pullback in credit card usage, what could be causing this shift, and could we expect this trend to continue? Historically, wage growth has often differed between high-skilled and lo...

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess consumer spending, home pricing, and the outlook for the S&P 500. Amid the Iranian conflict, oil prices have increased, but has this impacted consumer spending? Higher-income households have seen after-tax wage growth rise to 5.6% year-over-year; how does that compare to lower-income households? Additionally, according to the Affordability Price Index...

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the economic impact from the current world events, safe haven status, and cost of energy. Inflation has cooled and is now stabilizing around 3%, but that remains above the Federal Reserve’s usual 2% target. This raises the question of whether consumers will begin to see meaningful relief in prices ahead. Over the past 80 years, gasoline and other energy...

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the inflation outlook, affordability, and hydrocarbons alongside urea prices. Spending in February grew about 3 percent year over year, which may indicate a relatively strong consumer. What can the uptick in consumer spending be attributed to? Inflation has remained elevated in recent data. What are the projections for a future rate cut or hike? Housing...

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the evolving job market and affordability, financial markets and inflation, and break down the latest trends in imports and exports. Job availability has been trending lower since 2022. What factors could influence whether this trend continues, stabilizes, or reverses in the near term? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies have risen...

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer debt, inflation and deflation across the U.S., and S&P earnings growth. The total consumer debt balance and its composition have not changed much for consumers aside from slight increases in mortgages since the post Covid period. On the other hand, balances by delinquency status have seen larger adjustments. Which source of debt has changed...

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the housing market, population trends, financial markets, and global freshwater withdrawal rates. Housing prices have declined year over year, while demand continues to vary by region. We explore whether prices might be showing signs of stabilizing, or if further declines may be possible. U.S. natural population growth has slowed in recent years, and tig...

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore U.S. inflation compared to disposable income, stock market earnings, and housing. U.S. inflation closed out 2025 lighter than expected, hovering around 2 to 3 percent. Where is the biggest CPI impact with regard to tariffs? Disposable income in the U.S. has seen a 6.2 percent acceleration in the post pandemic period. We examine what this could imply for...

This week on Inside the Economy, we break down housing affordability, Wall Street’s equity outlook for 2026, the state of Venezuela’s oil industry, and the regional destinations driving China’s exports. Rent growth has moderated since the post-pandemic surge, while housing affordability has shown some signs of improvement. Where do current real house prices rank relative to the last five decades?...

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into stock performance and take a closer look under the hood at AI, inflation, wages, and the U.S. job market. The “Magnificent Seven” stocks of the S&P 500 have been primary drivers of the market over the past few years. Is the index beginning to broaden now? What has led to Google’s success this year? We also examine long-term inflation, which has ave...

This week on Inside the Economy, we cover U.S. consumer income growth, the growing rent-versus-buy debate among younger generations, and the latest in U.S. markets. Median income growth has cooled sharply since early 2022. The key question now: Are we normalizing, losing ground, or entering a new phase? With that in mind, it’s interesting to see how November’s median annual pay varies across state...

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore stable increases in inflation, emerging issues in credit card and auto loan delinquencies, U.S. markets, and slow changes in China. Inflation has remained relatively sticky, with slight increases in the past few months. What sector appears to be driving this rise? Auto loan and credit card delinquencies, which had been less of an issue over the last few...

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the labor market, S&P 500 earnings growth, and the concept of “America First”. As we near year-end, how do announced U.S. layoffs stack up against historical trends and the elevated levels recorded in 2020?  We’ll explore several potential drivers behind the recent surge in U.S. layoffs, some of which may be surprising. The U.S. first-lien mortgage d...

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the housing market, the AI investment frenzy, and economic growth in the U.S. Home prices have become increasingly unaffordable, and potential upcoming rate cuts are unlikely to solve the issue. Denver’s housing market remains flat, with some rising prices - where do prices appear to be increasing the most? Has the housing market reached a breaking point...

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the state of consumers and employment, today’s frothy markets, and economic developments in Europe. While we await updated jobless claims data —delayed due to the government shutdown—we can already see signs of possible moderation in consumer behavior. Both consumer and credit card spending have declined over the past three months, while consumer loan gr...

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer spending, employment trends, new home sales data, and recent actions by the Federal Reserve. Despite concerns, there is minimal evidence that hiring has slowed drastically, and layoffs remain low. But are consumers starting to feel pressure when it comes to spending, particularly in the context of inflation? We also explore the current level of...

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at employment trends, the pending rate cut, stock valuations, and the U.S. bond market. Jobless claims are rising and the unemployment rate has ticked up. Could fewer hours worked per employee be part of the story? Equity valuations are reaching levels not seen in decades. With the S&P 500 trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.4, we e...

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss employment growth, the housing market, and the latest inflation data. Year-over-year job growth has dipped below 1%. Could this be a sign of a weakening labor market or a return to pre-pandemic norms? In housing, new home sales reveal a growing gap between inventory and buyer demand, raising questions about whether potential rate cuts could provide relie...

This week on Inside the Economy, we examine key developments in the latest economic report, with a focus on the Consumer Price Index and the primary drivers of inflation. We’ll also explore changes in average hourly earnings compared to a year ago, alongside trends in total debt balances. Are consumers spending money they already have, or might they be increasingly relying on debt? One of the most...

This week on Inside the Economy, we take a closer look at key developments in the labor market, housing, and energy. Nonfarm employment growth in the U.S. continues to slow. Are we seeing a return to pre-pandemic norms, or is something else driving this trend? Delinquencies are rising among upper income borrowers. How does this compare to lower income households, and could it point to broader repr...