Saxo Market Call

Today's pod offers a brief market wrap on the big shift higher in US treasury yields and the impact on the US dollar, metals and crypto and whether yields can continue higher, noting the important event risks incoming next week. But the main event in today's episode is a long-form conversation with a great friend of the podcast, Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital. We covered the Nvidia situation, the c...

Today, a look at yesterday's strong and stunning US equity market comeback as we try to determine whether we should take this as a positive signal for the remainder of the year or retain a bit of caution at the two-way tantrums that have just been unleashed over the last three trading days. With Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen we cover the outlook and drivers for the oil market, preciou...

Today, we assess the comeback in the AI trade on Friday and ongoing market divergences, while wondering how much Nvidia CEO Huang's affair with a Chinese intelligence operative might impact Nvidia besides Huang personally. Also, we note he market's rather dismissive reaction to a strong US job report Friday, perhaps as tomorrow's CPI number weighs more. This and much more on today's pod, which is...

Today, a look at yesterday's historic meltdown in US equities, which broadened out to the almost all sectors in addition to the ground zero of the AI trade. We look at new developments in intermarket dynamics on this move as well, especially in currencies as the US dollar finally came alive as a safe haven as in the days of yore. This and much more on post-election thoughts from the pod host, Glob...

Today, we look at the remarkable US equity market session yesterday, as the market fears that the Democratic mid-term sweep will slow the pace of data centre buildouts, sending data center infrastructure and chip companies into a tailspin even as the broader market rallied steeply. How durable is this trade? Also, further thoughts on the implications of the US mid-terms, macro and FX developments...

Today we look at the massive rebuke of Trump and the Republicans across the US as the Senate, House and Governors' races across the nation tilted far more strongly to the Democrats than almost anyone was prognosticating. We note how the market is absorbing the news and look at what matters next for markets and how they will interact with the coming political cycle as well as the immediate aftermat...

A brief, last minute podcast in which we drastically lower our conviction level on the strong blue wave scenario for the US mid-term elections after listening to a very interesting podcast suggesting, based on plausible analysis, that the polls give us no idea of what may happen and that the Republicans could even retain the house.  Link: The Grant Williams Podcast interviewing Marvin Barth on the...

Today, a last minute look at the odds shift in the US mid-term elections and whether we are facing a blue wave or even a "blue tsunami" in favour of the Democrats. We also put the magnifying class to the notion that the US mid-term elections are a good time to put money to work in the US stock market. Elsewhere, we dive into yesterday's wild market internals, the somewhat less wild macro and FX ba...

Today, a look at a wild and woolly trading session on Friday, as the market was reluctant to hold risk over the weekend, perhaps, and on the carnage to many AI names after key earnings reports spooked much of the AI sector. It is worth noting that on balance, October was a strong to very strong month for almost all non-tech sectors, something many portfolios may not have felt. Also, we preview the...

Today - a market wrap after another big downdraft in AI names and even the broader market this time, as Amazon and Intel results sent chills and on the fear and loathing on the risks of the Iran War resuming in force. But most of all, a very long form take on the US mid-term elections next Tuesday, with thoughts on what could be at stake for both markets and US politics, not to mention the longer...

Today, the market ended Wednesday on a positive move as the FOMC proved semi-dovish, at least according to market impressions, while the vibe changed sharply after the close on Alphabet's earnings miss relative to expectations, though most of the sentiment damage seems limited. ServiceNow got fewer headlines but was down 18.5% on its earnings report, triggering contagion across SaaS stocks. Elsewh...

Today, covering the strong session yesterday and overnight in Asia for much of the AI hardware space, although Seagate Technology was a notable exception overnight and wondering how much of the story is linked to the incoming Anthropic IPO. Certainly an important test for the AI trade as three Mag7 hyperscalers are reporting today (Microsoft and Alphabet and tomorrow (Amazon.com). Lots going on in...

Today, we look at the market's enthusiasm for the coming Anthropic IPO, which took an important step closer with the release of their S1 prospectus yesterday. The floating of the company will prove a massive test for the AI trade. Elsewhere, plenty more to discuss as the Euro is coming under pressure again despite a bid for French sovereign debt yesterday. This and much more on today's pod, which...

Today, a look at another US equity market session Friday marked by huge market divergences as we also look into what may be driving this phenomenon. Elsewhere, we preview a very busy week ahead, with the big three central banks all set to meet this week and an ongoing blitz of incoming earnings reports, with three of the Mag7 reporting. Perhaps most importantly, we remind of the terrible overhang...

Today we break down the big sell-off in US equities, as ironically there were almost twice as many gainers as losers in the S&P 500 yesterday, with the selling chiefly focused on AI-related companies. Elsewhere, it was a much bigger day for bonds, which rallied steeply as US treasuries finally functioned as a proper and unambiguous safe haven, at least for a day. The impact on FX from that was...

Today, we look at the violent vibe shift in the US equity market, which crumbled overnight after a quite positive session, led by the very high momentum sectors that posted a solid result yesterday. It doesn't feel like this is all coming from negative reactions to earnings results from the likes of Tesla or Lam Research - but what is it? We wonder if it could be geopolitics. Also on today's pod,...

Today, a look at yet another day of US equity market divergences, as the major indices and semiconductors posted an indifferent to slightly negative day while most stocks were up solidly on the day. This rhymes with another market from around the years 2000-01. Also, a look at SpaceX and Netflix earnings and the very different reactions. French yields and much more also on today's pod, which is ho...

Today, we look at the markets trying to get back in a positive mood yesterday in the US, but with the broader market and the rest of the world not having any of it as oil prices surged once again and as the situation in France continues to fester. Discomfort with stability of AI "neo-cloud" companies is also weighing. With earnings season hitting full swing this week, we wonder why SpaceX is sudde...

Today, a look at a massive comeback from further steep selling in US equities, establishing a critical line in the sand for the major indices and especially AI-adjacent names from here, effectively a bull-bear line. Elsewhere, Tesla demonstrated its new Roadster, which can both "fly" for an unknown number of seconds and "suck" itself to the road, allowing for beyond vertical adherence to a road su...

Today, a look at a wild day for US treasuries as a hot US CPI print first pumps US treasury yields, only to see longer-dated yields end the day at the lowest level in weeks. The US dollar followed yields lower and the implication is that treasuries may be a safe haven again as in the days of yore, given that stocks were generally weak for the entire post-CPI episode yesterday. This and much more,...

Today a look at signs of extreme tightening in credit concerns for a few key names even as stock and bond markets saw a quiet day and the general drift in credit conditions was only mildly negative. Also, a look at the first incoming US earnings reports and negative reception of some of the best numbers from Goldman Sachs. This and much more, especially on the many links below, on today's pod, whi...

Today we look at yesterday's ugly session for tech and AI-related stocks, noting the follow on action once again in Asia overnight as well, all while the median stock was almost unchanged on the day. Elsewhere, we note US treasuries opening up heavily bid after the bank holiday and wonder whether US treasuries are suddenly serving their traditional role as a safe haven again. This and much more on...

Today we look at the Russia diesel deal that will, spoiler alert, fail to meaningfully impact the supply situation for any length of time, but also consider the risk of a Ukraine-US rift. Elsewhere, macro traders are holding their breath for this Wednesday's US September CPI report, Palantir has just bolted to a new all time high and earnings season is set to kick off in earnest tomorrow. Today's...

Today, a look at the sudden contagion across markets Thursday on the FT reporting that OpenAI's revenue run rate is supposedly lower than OpenAI has claimed, with subsequent analysis inconclusive because of the opacity of the data, allowing markets to largely come full circle from the reaction, but at the same time revealing the risk of market fragility should an important AI-linked company report...

Today, we note the rather ugly risk off tone across markets, with strong Samsung and TSMC earnings reports received somewhat poorly by the market overnight in Asia. Europe is suffering another weak session even as the key US indices once again managed a resilient performance, but can they continue to do so with the worrisome backdrop? Also today, full coverage of the latest oil spike, EU's natural...