RaboResearch Agri Commodities

In this RaboResearch podcast, Agri Commodities Markets Research analysts Charles Hart and Andrick Payen discuss some of the highlights from the USDA's recent Acreage and Grain Stocks reports and what the reports will mean for grain and oilseed markets moving forward.     Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at  https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/discl...

After a relatively subdued period between March and April, volatility has returned to the cocoa market in force. Cocoa prices, still down 23.5% year-to-date, have rallied 31% since the beginning of May as bullish fundamentals reemerge. Key drivers include the transition toward an active El Niño event, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and a slow start to the development of West Afri...

Coffee prices have dropped by 32% in the last six months due to an increase in production. As the availability of coffee in origin increases, stocks in destination countries are still scarce, and some volatility is expected before we see even lower prices. Join Oran van Dort and Carlos Mera as they discuss these and many other topics affecting much of the world's favorite beverage.  This episode w...

Since the war in Iran began, fertilizer prices have been climbing steadily. US Gulf urea prices alone are up around 40% since the start of the conflict and nearly 80% year‑to‑date, putting intense pressure on farm economics. In several regions, farmer margins are now razor‑thin   – or outright negative   – raising the risk of reduced fertilizer use and significant cuts in planted wheat area ahead...

Cocoa futures in London and New York have had a rough start to the new year, plummeting 30% YTD following a wave of bearish fundamentals hitting the market in January. In this podcast, Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort discuss the latest crash, explaining the role of deteriorating demand, evidence of easing market tightness, favorable West African weather, and the significant influence of speculators,...

Carlos Mera and Oran van Dort discuss the spike in coffee prices. Despite so many factors affecting the coffee market in the last couple of years, global exports in the 12 months to August remained remarkably stable. A significant drop in Brazilian exports is being offset by increases in a number of countries, from large producers like Vietnam and Colombia to tiny Madagascar. Looking at the 2026/2...

Join Carlos Mera and Charles Hart as they unpack the USDA's June WASDE report in the latest ACMR podcast. At first – and even second – glance, this month's WASDE might seem like a nonevent. The absence of revisions to major forecasts was conspicuous, but the changes that the USDA did not make are where the report's significance lies. We'll examine the department's current harvest outlooks for seve...

The second half of November saw coffee prices igniting, with arabica prices pushing well past USD 3/lb, a level not seen since 1977, and robusta prices breaking all-time records. Arabica prices have increased 109% over the last twelve months. Meanwhile, robusta prices, which have been elevated since the Houthi-induced Red Sea disruptions last December, have risen 92% in the last year and an astron...

The cocoa rally shows no signs of slowing, with the London March24 contract up 58% YTD. Meanwhile, the New York contract set a new all-time high in the first half of February, surpassing, in nominal terms, the previous record set in 1977. Since then, prices have moved 20% higher! In this podcast, we discuss the factors contributing to this unprecedented price rally. In our view, recent price actio...

Last Friday the USDA released a catalogue of data: the January WASDE, quarterly grain stocks, and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings. The releases were largely bearish and confirmed the views held in our 2024 outlook ( Buyers sail home on rising supplies ) of higher-than-expected production and weaker demand. Consumers who have been disciplined are now being rewarded in terms of lower global G&O pri...

Join Rabobank's Agri Commodity Markets Research team for a deep dive into grain and oilseed markets. Since our bearish 2024 outlook was published on November 15, grain and oilseed prices have slid as bargaining power continues to shift from farmers to consumers. North American 2023 grain harvests are set to outpace demand and pad stockpiles, encouraging funds to take on heavy short positions. The...

The October WASDE was viewed as a bullish report by the market, with corn, soy, and wheat futures all rising following its release. For corn in particular, it was higher old crop feed demand that caught the market by surprise. Meanwhile, for wheat markets, we saw 2023/24 estimations for both global production and trade trimmed. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/di...

Since the start of the year we have seen simultaneous rallies in sugar (+15%), cocoa (+28%), and robusta coffee (+47%). This is rather unusual given these three commodities have very different fundamentals and are produced in very different countries. The threat of El Niño-related weather challenges is the one common element that has led to speculators increasing their long bets across these three...

With minimum alterations for most countries, the April WASDE's main talking point was cuts in Argentine production for soybeans, wheat, and corn amid the ongoing drought. As these cuts were expected, we saw little price action following the report's release. Eyes will now turn to next month's WASDE, which will provide the first estimates of the 2023/24 season. Please read our disclaimer here: http...

Join Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz for a look at the year ahead in ACMR's latest podcast. 2022 held unprecedented volatility for agricultural commodity markets, from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to La Niña drought across South America. Consumers suffered through a third year of an agricultural bull market. It could very well be the last. Rabobank expects broad-based price relief in 2023 as...

On the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz discuss the October WASDE report. Poor 2022/23 US grain and oilseed harvests are forcing the USDA to become increasingly adept with scissors. As it cuts production, the USDA must increasingly (and tragically) cut demand to prevent ending stockpiles from disappearing. Relative to expectations, the report was bear...

In the latest RaboResearch Agri Commodities episode, Global Grains & Oilseeds Strategist Steve Nicholson joins ACMR Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz to discuss the September WASDE. ACMR's August WASDE Report predicted the USDA "may rue their bold move" to raise US soybean yields. Indeed, this week the USDA did a dramatic 180, cutting US soy (and corn) yields and reducing demand to avoid outright s...

On the latest ACMR podcast, Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz and Analyst Paul Joules discuss the recent price movements in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean futures. Tune in to hear about the 2022/23 harvests, the latest WASDE report, funds bouncing back, and overarching demand-side concerns. From a supply standpoint, heavy heat across the US and Europe poses a significant risk to feed grain and oilse...

Head of Agri Commodities Markets Research Carlos Mera and Senior Analyst Michael Magdovitz discuss the recent pullback in CBOT Corn, Wheat, and Soybean prices. Tune in to hear about recent bearish dynamics: speculative capitulation, the worsening macroeconomic backdrop, shrinking demand, and the potential for a sea route for Ukrainian supplies. From a supply standpoint, however, fundamentals are s...

Join Rabobank's Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in China, Lief Chiang, and ACMR's Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the factors behind the high-price environment in G&O and what it means for China's feed demand. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

Russia has been amassing troops around the Ukrainian border and making demands NATO cannot afford to meet. A potential invasion with far-reaching consequences for key agricultural commodities like wheat, barley, corn, and sunflower oil cannot be ruled out. A retaliatory blanket embargo could result in even higher agri commodity prices. Given the inelasticity of demand, wheat prices in particular c...

Soft commodities have seen a price surge in 2021, with coffee topping the price change charts. Join ACMR's Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the risks for coffee and sugar in 2022. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña in Brazil will be key for these commodities, while the container situation will be especially relevant for coffee. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.r...

Join ACMR's Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz as they discuss the high price environment in G&O and the risks ahead for 2022. Wheat, feed grains and vegetable oils all hit multi-year highs in 2022 due to supply issues and strong demand. Looking ahead, the development of La Niña, high input costs and post-Covid demand threaten to keep supplies on the ropes and prices well supported. Please read our...

Join Rabobank's ACMR team on this very spooky podcast as Carlos Mera and Michael Magdovitz share frightening tales about global food inflation that will send a shiver down your spine and might send you running for the candy aisles. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

Last Friday, the USDA published a nominally bearish September WASDE report, with higher objective yields and acreage lifting US corn, soy, and cotton production and ending stocks. Yet, CBOT counterintuitively rallied in response as it became clear that increased G&O availability would be gobbled up by sidelined consumers. Join Rabobank's Michael Magdovitz and Andrew Rawlings as they deconstruct th...