Propenomix with Adam Lawrence

Six exits from a property portfolio, compared on risk, return, time and effort, from 150+ real sales. Selling a property portfolio is harder, slower and more stressful than most landlords expect. Adam has bought around 850 properties and sold 150+ since 2021. Here are six ways out, compared on risk, return, time and effort. This isn't a "buy to let is dead" video. It's a look at the reality of get...

It's Budget eve, the UK property market is supposedly dead, and the goose of choice looks like the banks. Adam works through the leaks, the landlord angle and what the data says about mortgage rates and house prices. Recorded the day before John Healey's first Budget, this is the round-up of the past eight days. The reported leaks (fuel duty frozen, the minimum wage up to £13.20 an hour, an extra...

2.1% growth nobody mentioned, Chris Watkin's week 40 numbers, $110 oil and a quiet Budget run-up. The UK economy grew 2.1% over the last year and almost nobody mentioned it. Recorded nine days before John Healey's first Budget, this week asks what that means for UK property, mortgage rates and rents. Jim O'Neill told the Treasury Committee that the most important thing about this Budget is that it...

Is the UK property market really dead? Chris Watkin's real-time data says no. It's slow, choosy and oversupplied, but still agreeing sales at around 92% of the normal rate. This week Adam works through the numbers behind the crash talk. The budget lands on Wednesday 28th October, and markets are pricing roughly an 80% chance of a rate rise on 5th November. With the 10-year gilt at 5.45% and five-y...

Is the UK housing market rolling over? Sales agreed are slipping, the 30-year gilt has broken 6% and help to buy is back. This week Adam works through what it all means for house prices, mortgage rates and your next move. The short answer is not yet. Chris Watkin's real-time numbers show 96,500 UK sales agreed in September. That is around 6 to 7% down on the last two years, but still nearly 10% ah...

John Healey's surprise Treasury, Chris Watkin's real-time numbers, and rent controls back on the table. Burnham's in, Starmer's gone, and John Healey is the surprise new chancellor - but for property the real question isn't who runs the country, it's what a new Treasury means for UK mortgage rates and house prices. This week Adam works through the cabinet reshuffle, softening inflation, and a mark...

Andy Burnham wants to tax the land under our feet. This week Adam works through the land value tax - the maths, the politics, and what it would really mean for the UK property market, landlords and house prices. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers. There's £7.1 trillion of UK land value on the table, a compulsory purchase threat aimed at landlords, a possible re-engineering of capital...

Kier's gone, Andy Burnham is the runaway favourite, and the bigger question for property isn't who runs the country - it's who runs the Treasury. This week Adam works through what a new chancellor means for UK mortgage rates, the housing market and your next move. No tribal economics, no hype - just the numbers and what they mean. There's an election question to settle first, a mortgage backbook c...

The argument was never whether to cut, only how fast. That's gone. There won't be any cuts this year. The next move is a hike, and this episode walks you through exactly why. Part one of a heavier-than-usual week, split into two because it ran close to three hours. This half is pure macro: the war, the rates U-turn, the real-time market, and the gilts. Trump Watch - The ceasefire that isn't. Oil c...

Back after a four-week break, Adam runs through everything that's moved in the UK property market over the past month, and the picture has shifted. Transactions are now down three weeks running, with last week's sold-subject-to-contract figures off around 9% year on year. Adam explains why the slowdown is showing up in June rather than March: the 90-day decision-in-principle window that locked fir...

Is the UK property market crashing, or is it just geographically divided?  ***CHECK OUT OUR NEXT WORKSHOP: www.tinyurl.com/pbweleven *** In this week's Propenomix Sunday Supplement live version, I dive deep into the unvarnished reality of the UK economy and housing market. I break down the massive 27.4% gap between property listing prices and actual sale prices, the horrifying cratering of the UK...

  Episode Title: Whisky Carrots, Tech Sticks & The Death of Pricing Hopium Show Notes: Upcoming Event: Before we dive into today's macroeconomic breakdown, a quick reminder: Navigating a market devoid of "pricing hopium" requires airtight analysis. My next Property Business Workshop is coming up, and we are focusing entirely on Due Diligence. If you want to stop guessing and start running the real...

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed , Brent crude has blasted past $100 a barrel , and the Bank of England has slammed the brakes on rate cuts . Welcome to another essential reality check on this week's Propenomix Supplement. We are stripping away the mainstream noise to look at exactly how global geopolitics, staggering private credit failures, and a flatlining UK economy are impacting you...

We are officially in a per-capita recession, meaning the average person in the UK is getting steadily poorer, despite the headline vanity metrics trying to suggest otherwise . In this week's agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup, we cut through the noise of the mainstream headlines to deliver the unvarnished reality of the market . Mortgage rates are all over the place, with the potent...

In this jam-packed episode of Propenomix, we navigate the collision of global macroeconomics and the gritty reality of the UK property market. From the "bull in a china shop" impact of Trumponomics on UK SMEs to the legislative earthquake of the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, we strip away the headlines to reveal what the data actually says. We deep-dive into the "death of leasehold" and th...

Is your investment strategy built for the reality of 2026, or are you holding onto a "zombie" portfolio? Summary: In this deep-dive episode, Adam Lawrence breaks down the convergence of macroeconomic shifts and regulatory hammers hitting the UK property market. From the "Trumpomics" ripple effect to the government's 152-page Warm Homes Plan , we analyze why the gap between the North and South is w...

The Media is Watching Greenland. I'm Watching the Bond Yields. While the headlines are hyperventilating over Trump's rhetoric on acquiring Greenland or the "generosity" of Venezuelan oil deals, they are missing the actual story. The structural reality is far more significant: a $200bn direct intervention in the Mortgage-Backed Securities market and a hard cap on credit card interest. This isn't ju...

Is it time to submit to the AI overlords? In this first full supplement of 2026, Adam Lawrence kicks off the year with a unique experiment: he trained an AI on a year's worth of Propynomics content to predict the macro and property landscape for 2026. Does the AI know Adam better than he knows himself? Tune in to hear where they agree - and the critical areas where Adam vehemently disagrees (espec...

Are you ready for "The Golden Quarter"? In this episode, we take a deep dive into the critical window of opportunity opening up for property investors between now and May 1st, 2026. Adam Lawrence reviews the economic landscape at the close of 2025 and explains why the upcoming implementation of the Renters' Rights Act is triggering a strategic sell-off among amateur landlords. We break down the ma...

The Bank of England has finally cut rates to 3.75%, but the razor-thin 5-4 vote signals that the battle against inflation is far from over. In this episode, we break down the latest "Propenomics" analysis of the UK economic landscape as we head into 2026. From the "Suicide by Unemployment" risk to the growing divide between public and private sector pay, we analyse why the BoE is behind the curve—...

Episode Summary: In this pivotal episode of Propenomix , Adam Lawrence bridges the gap between the immediate humanitarian crisis on our doorstep and the macroeconomic shockwaves shaping the global landscape. From the staggering £2.8 billion cost of the UK's homelessness emergency to the return of "Trumpnomics" and its ripple effects on British property, this is an episode about cause, effect, and...

Episode Description: Are we witnessing the hardening of structural fault lines in the UK housing market? In this episode, we break down the newly released English Housing Survey (EHS 2024-25) and critical November economic indicators. From the "temporal stretching" of mortgages to a construction sector "deep in the red," we reveal why the UK property landscape is becoming a high-risk, high-reward...

The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you)   The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring.   In this episode: Tru...

Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy. Cutting through the...

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****   This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:   Trumpwatch The Real Time UK Property Market - what's the score? The deep dive looks to how much pain we will all be in in a few days time, post-budget   We also have, in the Macro section:   Inflation - and a more orderly month The Rightmove Asking Price Index...