Pressure Points

Tesla shares down on the huge delivery beat for three reasons. The biggest was buy on the rumor. The second is a question of how much did high gas prices help the number and third, the ending of the DOGE headwind (Elon left in May 25).Bottom line: The EV winter that started in March of 2024 is ending. Even backing out those one time benefits, it still was a monster delivery number, likely up 20% p...

The most underappreciated data point on MU’s earnings call was that the number of five-year SCAs increased from one last quarter to seven this quarter. That’s significant because it suggests customers expect this buildout to last for at least five years and want greater pricing visibility over that time frame. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or ge...

Apple showed plans for a new Siri AI that consumers will love. They failed to answer the key question: Do they have the AI chops to deliver? My guess is that we’ll see Siri AI in mid-CY27, versus previous expectations for the fall of this year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

NVIDIA keeps crushing high expectations. It was a $27B business in CY22. This year it will be more than $400B. Investors are more worried that the growth will slow next year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The reason why shares of $AAPL are not up more is investors wonder if the new Siri can power an encore to iPhone super cycle that wraps up this quarter. I believe the answer is yes. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The bottom line on the capex outlook, we’re early in the AI buildout. Three of the four hyperscalers hiked their AI spending outlook. I expect in CY26 will come in up closer to 80% vs. up Street expectations of up 64% going into tonight. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Meta can’t shake the capex bears. Growth of 33% was better than the whisper of 32%. Guided June to 28% vs. Street at 25%. Investors opted instead to focus on capex growth this year going to 93% growth compared to previous expectations of 73%. I see the concern overblown. Meta has shown they can meaningfully accelerate revenue from capex. March of 25 it was up 16%. This June it will grow 28% plus....

Investors shrugged off the higher capex guide for 2027 because Google Cloud is gaining meaningful marketshare, and Search is at an “expansionary moment” which means Search growth this year will be closer to 17% vs. the Street currently at 13%. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Postive comments about Azure growing at 40% in June vs 39% in March was offset by them talking about the elephant in the room, the need for a new monetization model for software that is usage based. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Sounds like they’re keeping capex outlook unchanged. Up 48% y/y in CY26 compared to up 59% in CY25. The kicker is outside of AWS, they still have not had their AI moment. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Shares of TSLA sold off on the increased capex comments. It should have traded up because it supports the company’s long-term vision. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tim crushed it as CEO of Apple. Ternus has an opportunity to supercharge Apple’s multiple by changing the narrative, which is the biggest opportunity in big tech. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

For the deep dive on our SpaceX Is Building the World’s First Sovereign AI thesis, check out Doug Clinton and I on Pressure Points. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Beyond the headline of next week’s Tesla deliveries is the reality that the EV business is in a better place today than two years ago. Big Auto made big cuts to EV investment over that time, and that gives Tesla a bigger opportunity, especially in the US where we don’t have BYD. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visi...

Bottom line from Jensen’s keynote: Demand is measurably stronger than even the highest expectations, and investors are still having a hard time getting comfortable with that. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Reflecting on Apple’s upcoming 50th birthday reveals why the company will continue to be successful. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The new MacBook Neo should add 0.5% to overall revenue for the next year. I believe it won't impact margins. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The new Mac’s announced today add color to Cook’s “range of options to deal with margins”. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The new Apple products should translate into a modest upside for June quarter revenue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Three takeaways on Nvidia: 1. The stock being down 1% underscores that investors’ long term growth concerns remain. 2. The fundamentals and outlook came in better than elevated whisper numbers. 3. Most importantly, the guidance reinforces just how early we are in AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwaterm...

Google's business and growth outlook is rock solid. Shares sold off on the massive CapEx guide, comments on rising depreciation impacting earnings, and unknowns around quarter-to-quarter Cloud growth. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Why is Apple up only 1% despite a much better-than-expected December quarter and March guide? The explanation begins in June 2024. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The fact that Tesla is disclosing FSD subscriptions is all you need to know about its progress. That progress makes Robotaxi expansion a reality.  This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

We’re 4% of the way into 2026, and the fundamentals of AI infrastructure are tracking above expectations. Next stop: hyperscalers’ capex guidance in two weeks. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com