On Point

Buckle up for another action packed week across financial markets! Three of the world's biggest central banks are meeting, including the Federal Reserve in the US. We've also got inflation reports due in the UK and Japan, as well as the first indicators for how economic activity is tracking in September. Here at home, we'll see the results of another dairy auction as well as the latest...

The last few years have been very strong for the US labour market, as well as here in New Zealand. Unemployment has been extremely low, wage growth has been strong, and unions have negotiated some historic contracts. This labour market tightness has given workers, particularly those in lower-paid professions, bargaining power they haven’t had for decades. As a result, wage growth (in both the US a...

As always, there's plenty going across financial markets this week. Here in New Zealand, we’ll get the latest migration estimates, as well as electronic card spending and a fresh monthly housing report. Markets will also be watching the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) from Treasury on Tuesday. The extent of deterioration in the economic outlook and a likely increase to the borr...

China has been a powerhouse of global growth in recent decades, and investors seeking the excitement and opportunity of emerging markets haven’t needed to look much further. However, the world’s second largest economy is facing increasing challenges, bringing its credentials as an obvious investment destination into question. In contrast, India is shaping up as a highly attractive place to do busi...

The S&P 500 in the US rose 2.5% last week, its best weekly performance in almost three months. That wasn’t enough to see the US market finish August in the green, however, with the index ending 1.8% lower for its first negative month since February. The local NZX 50 increased a more modest 0.5%, as investors digested a cautious reporting season and looked ahead to the election with some trepid...

With just six weeks to go until the election, the local sharemarket seems to be in a bit of a funk. There are a number of reasons for this, and uncertainty over how the political landscape will look beyond October is one of them. Are we likely to see a market rebound in the wake of the election, and would a change a government be a positive for investors? Let's take a look back through history...

There are plenty of important economic releases due in the US this week, with the August jobs report and July PCE inflation figures of most interest. China's latest PMIs will be a focal point, while unemployment releases are due across Europe. Here in New Zealand, the ANZ Business Outlook survey will be the key economic releases on Thursday and the earnings season will continue as well. Meridi...

After a stellar first seven months of the year, August is proving to be more challenging for investors. US shares are down about four per cent this month, which puts it on track to be the weakest month since December last year. What's brought on this sudden bout of August anxiety, and what might the near-term hold for investors?

There's an awful lot happening across financial markets at the moment. US shares have fallen for three weeks in a row, while 10-year Treasury yields are close to the highest levels since 2007. China has found itself in a challenging situation with weak domestic demand, fears of deflation, a troubled housing market and concerns over the shadow lending sector. New Zealand farmers are feeling the...

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% today, having increased it at 12 consecutive meetings between October 2021 and May of this year. The forecasts in the associated Monetary Policy Statement reflected a more resilient economy, a labour market that remains tighter for longer, and higher inflation over the next 12 months. What does this mean for investors, a...

Dairy prices have been trending lower for the past 18 months, and the declines have gathered pace in recent weeks.  This will impact the broader economy, flowing through to reduced spending on goods and services, lower activity, and a reduced tax take. It could also put some downward pressure on the currency, given the historic relationship between global dairy prices and the NZ dollar.  For inves...

The US consumer will be in focus this week with retail sales for July out on Tuesday, as well as earnings releases from Home Depot and Walmart. Following a better-than-expected GDP report in the UK on Friday, markets will be watching wage data on Tuesday and the July inflation report on Wednesday. There’ll be plenty to keep an eye on here this week, with the Reserve Bank set to release its latest...

The reporting season kicks off next week and we can expect a plethora of releases across the NZX. About two thirds of the companies on our market will report earnings through August and September. As always, there will be winners and losers. Some companies will be feeling the pressure of slower economic growth and rising costs, while others will have enjoyed a pleasing return to profitability. The...

The S&P 500 in the US fell 2.3% last week, its worst performance in almost five months. After a stellar run that’s seen the US market rebound more than 25% from its October 2022 lows, a breather is to be expected. A slightly weaker than expected result from market heavyweight Apple and a softer jobs report that pointed to persistent inflation pressures were catalysts for the more cautious tone...

August is “Money Month”, an annual public awareness campaign run by Te Ara Ahunga Ora (the Retirement Commission) to help improve financial wellbeing. With that in mind, we thought we’d let aspiring share investors in on a secret, which is that it’s much easier than people think. In fact, if you follow two simple rules it’s hard to go wrong.

The S&P 500 in the US rose another 1.0% last week, following more evidence inflation is coming under control and in the wake of more solid earnings releases. Having rallied 28.1% from the lows of last October, the US index is just 4.5% below its peak from January 2022. Last week was action-packed across financial markets, and the next five days are looking extremely busy too. There are some cr...

The election is less than three months away, the campaign is heating up and political experts are speculating on what the makeup of our next government will be. For the economy, uncertainty always prevails as an election approaches. Businesses tend to sit on their hands, refraining from making any major decisions while the policy backdrop is up in the air. However, once they’re out of the way most...

World sharemarkets remained in an upbeat mood last week, with the S&P 500 in the US rising another 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up ten days in a row, its best winning streak since 2017. Looking ahead, a very busy five days loom, with flash PMIs set to take the pulse of global growth on Monday, then three major central bank meetings later in the week. The Federal Reserve and Europe...

If you’re feeling a little confused about where global sharemarkets are headed, you’re not alone. Even the experts are unsure, with the range of predictions for how things will play out from here at the widest in decades. Wall Street forecasters have been caught well and truly off guard this year, with the strength of the US sharemarket taking almost everyone by surprise. What's driving this o...

Last week was a very strong one for global sharemarkets, as investors cheered a softer than expected US inflation report that fuelled hopes interest rates will stop rising soon and that a major recession can be avoided. Looking ahead, the local highlight will be the June quarter inflation report here in New Zealand. Due Wednesday, it is hoped this will show a further moderation in prices pressures...

The international quarterly reporting season kicked off a few days ago, and over the next few weeks this will be a focal point for share investors. This will be a crucial period for the direction of the sharemarket over the near-term, particularly in the US where much of the strength has come from this year. Despite some risk of earnings disappointment, there are still opportunities to be found. W...

New Zealand's gross domestic product declined in the three months to March 2023, making for the second consecutive quarter of contraction. Since these figures were released last month it’s been widely reported that the New Zealand economy has experienced a recession. Is that really the case though, and was the contraction big enough or the weakness widespread enough for us to consider this a g...

Global sharemarkets took a breather last week, with most falling slightly after a very strong first half of the year. Meanwhile, interest rates pushed higher as investors considered the prospect of more monetary policy tightening in the months ahead. There's plenty to keep an eye on in the days ahead, including a Reserve Bank decision here in New Zealand, an important inflation report in the U...

Last year was a difficult one for investors across the board. Against that backdrop, this year looked set to be another challenging one, with slower economic growth and more interest rate hikes expected to pressure markets. However, it’s hasn’t been too bad at all for investors. Here at the halfway point, world shares are up more than ten per cent, having rebounded more than 20 per cent from the l...

The S&P 500 in the US fell 1.4% last week, after five consecutive weekly gains that saw the index rise to its highest level since April 2022 at the end of the previous week. Most other global sharemarkets were softer as well, including the local market. After a strong rally, markets lost a bit of steam as the reality of higher interest rates and slower economic activity sets in. More aggressiv...