On Point

America has dominated the global economy for decades despite repeated predictions its best days are behind it. Is the strength of the United States due to its geographical advantages, entrepreneurial spirit or financial advantages? Let's discuss some of the reasons America has been able to repeatedly reinvent itself, and regularly prove more resilient than expected.

It'll be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed for the Matariki holiday on Friday. The clear highlight will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday, which is shaping up as a very interesting one. Market pricing implies a 76% chance of a hike, although oil prices have fallen back to well below the base case presented by the RBNZ in May, and in...

The first six months of the calendar year were volatile, punctuated by the conflict in Iran. Despite that, markets have performed very well. What might the second half bring, and does the recent retrenchment in oil prices clear the way for more strong gains?

Oil prices fell 10% on the back of hopes for a sustained resolution in the Middle East grew. That saw US crude finish the week just below US$70, almost 40% below last month’s peak and the lowest since late February. Are we out of the woods when it comes to inflation and rising interest rate risk?

A few different balls are up in the air across the central banking world, and change is afoot. Recent declines in oil prices have seen the odds of OCR hikes change, while the Federal Reserve in the US has entered a new era with Kevin Warsh as Chair. We’ll get a useful sense check in a fortnight from the Reserve Bank, while the evolution of the Fed will be a longer-term theme to monitor.

Investors often ask us how worried they should be about rising government debt. It’s a very fair question, and Budget 2026 showed that New Zealand’s books remain under pressure. If you or I live beyond our means, borrow too much and can’t repay our debts, we’ll eventually run out of options. However, governments aren’t households and that’s an important distinction. How should investors think abou...

Central banks will be in focus this week, with the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision the highlight on Thursday morning (NZ time). As well as being Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Chair, we'll also get a fresh Summary of Economic Projections from the Fed. Monetary policy decisions are also due in Australia, Japan and the UK.

SpaceX is about to become one of the largest listed companies in the world, with an estimated valuation of almost US$1.8 trillion. Whether this valuation is justified is an area of intense debate right now. Some see an extraordinary growth story spanning launch services, satellite communications and artificial intelligence. Others are questioning whether a company that is not yet profitable should...

It was a challenging end to the week on Wall Street, with the growth-heavy Nasdaq index falling 4.2% on Friday, its biggest daily decline since April last year. The S&P 500 index in the US fell 2.6% for the week, breaking a nine-week winning streak. Looking ahead, US inflation will be in the spotlight this week, with the CPI and PPI both due for release. These will come ahead of next week's Fe...

Wherever you go in the world, it’s very common for investors to have a home bias. People tend to anchor their portfolio with what they know, which is the local market. Kiwis will often have a healthy exposure to New Zealand shares, Australians usually start with what’s on the ASX, and Americans are renowned for not looking past their own borders. That can also feel like a safer approach, especiall...

US shares had another great month with the S&P 500 index rising 5.1% in May. However, only three out of 11 sectors were up for the month, with a 15.9% gain from the dominant tech sector driving the overall market up. Other markets were strong too, with emerging market shares continued their stellar run and rising 9.5% in May. That sees them up 24.8% year-to-date and up 49.7% in the past 12 mon...

We’ve seen a lot of economic releases over the last several weeks, but the most important of all were probably the two that covered inflation expectations. It might sound odd that what people think might happen trumps what’s actually happening across the economy, but right now that’s very much the case. Expectations matter because they influence behaviour, and behaviour drives outcomes. That’s esp...

A massive week looms here in New Zealand. The RBNZ will deliver its latest policy decision on Wednesday and while there is only an outside chance of an OCR hike, markets expect the RBNZ to lay the groundwork for moves at the following meeting. A day later we'll get Budget 2026, which is shaping as a very challenging one to deliver in an election year.

The US sharemarket has had a great run of late, rebounding strong from the March lows and hitting fresh highs. The S&P 500 is now up more than eight per cent in 2026 (including dividends), and we're only a third of the way through the year. That's impressive, especially given the volatility we've seen lately. However, while the S&P 500 is getting all the headlines there's another quietly o...

The Reserve Bank meets later this month, and there’s an outside chance the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will rise by 0.25%. If there’s no move this week, the focus will shift to the July meeting, where markets see an increase as almost certain. What might it mean for the economy, financial markets and investors?

A highlight of the week will be the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, scheduled for May 14-15. This will be the first since Trump returned to office last January, and there will be no shortage of issues to discuss.

Inflation is always a hot topic in financial markets, and it’ll be even more prominent as fuel prices push it higher over the next quarter or two. There’s a healthy cynicism about our official inflation figures, and many people would argue their own cost of living has increased more than these would suggest. So how do we measure inflation anyway, and what exactly is the Consumers Price Index?

In the coming week, the economic highlight will be the April jobs report in the US. On the central banking front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be in the spotlight on Tuesday afternoon. Here in Aotearoa, the March labour force report will be the highest profile release, while we'll also get the results of another dairy auction. During the upcoming week, more than 100 S&P 500 com...

The S&P 500 index in the US has increased for four consecutive weeks, rebounding strongly from the weakness in March. That leaves it up 13 per cent from the recent lows, and almost three per cent above its pre-conflict peak. You could be forgiven for wondering why the sharemarket is hitting new records, with oil prices still very high and the situation in the Middle East unresolved. There’s ne...

Some 180 S&P 500 companies are due to report this week, representing 44% of the S&P 500 by market cap. Half of that (so about 22%) comes on Wednesday, which will be a very busy day for corporate earnings releases. We’ll hear from five of the so-called "Magnificent 7" cohort this week (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft), as well as Coca-Cola, Visa, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly...

Stagflation has been in the headlines in recent weeks, as the oil price shock threatens to push inflation back up while taking a big chunk out of economic activity at the same time. The term is used to describe the highly undesirable combination of low growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. Could we see a return to the bad old days (economically, that is) of the 1970s?

The S&P 500 index in the US surged another 4.5% last week to close at fresh highs, after some positive developments in the Middle East. After being down 9.1% from its January peak in late March, the S&P 500 has rebounded 12.3% to surpass those previous highs and sit 4.1% above where it started the year.

With the war between the US and Iran entering its seventh week, we’re close to an important crossroads for markets. In the last several days we’ve had a ceasefire agreement, the highest-level diplomatic meetings between the two nations since the 1979 Iranian revolution, and US moves to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after talks failed. The situation remains fragile, and we’re already seeing the imp...

Investors will be closely monitoring US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the coming days, the highest-level diplomatic meeting between Iran and the US since the 1979 Iranian revolution. This will comes as the quarterly international earnings season kicks off with the US banking heavyweights set to report this week, as well as Netflix, PepsiCo and TSMC.

If you’re lucky enough to have a bit of surplus cash right now, it’s a difficult time to think about putting it to work. Diving in boots and all is foolhardy, while waiting in the wings for perfect conditions can be equally unwise. What's the best strategy for investors to use?