Notayesmanspodcasts

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- How much has Lagarde early departure to do with Macron being able to influence the next appointment rather than his possible successor, Le Pen, if she had remained until October? During your questions later could you say how you expect these...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Back in May Lagarde suggested that the Euro should replace the Dollar as the global standard currency for international trade. Is she correct on anything she predicts? Q: After Retail Sales today & recent inflation data in the UK along with a...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- The growing UK energy crisis and its implications for both inflation and the Bank of England

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I was asked by my daughter last night if we are about to enter a period of hyper inflation. I said unlikely unless the BoE ( or other central banks) go on another money printing spree. Was my answer too simplistic and too dismissive of the po...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Red Alert Klaxon. Le Spread exceeds 150 bps. Question for today. What happens now or will the ECB wait until it reaches 200 bps? With GILT levels at record highs and debt spiralling out of control. How likely is it that the budget will be the...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Q for today. Is the rumoured change in CGT a Treasury strategy to influence private financial advisers to move investments out of taxable investments into the Gilt market to help fund the UK Government & helping yields to stabilise ? Shaun, I...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Question for Friday: Could the Bank of England let inflation rip to help write down our debt? Sounds a bit conspiratorial, but is it possible? Can you go over the announcement from the Bank of England regarding slowing down the pace of its QT...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- 1) Did Scot Bessent create a target for the market on the US 10-year when he stated his red line was at 5% yield? 2) Do you believe like myself that every 10bp rise in the long end UK yields pushes Rosebank /Jackdaw fields to be approved clos...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Hi Shaun, this may be asking too much but do we have any idea what kind of losses the ECB is sitting on with regard to its various QE programmes? Shaun Just read a blog by Richard Murphy on Substack. Suggesting more quantitative easing. (Coby...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Question for Friday: How seriously do you take China’s de-dollarisation efforts? (China is methodically lowering friction for converting trade-related RMB into a hard asset via Hong Kong-linked and planned global gold infrastructure. This sup...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I guess Shaun you'll get any number of questions about what the US is up to, but if not how about something like this: what is Bessent trying to achieve, could it work, who benefits, who loses out. With the general rise in bond markets worldw...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Might be a stupid question, but how does one navigate this to protect capital? Are the recent growth figures for the UK economy as a result of the recent World Cup and people spending more? Or is there a reason to be optimistic? I may be too...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I’ve seen a couple of commentators talking about ‘zombie companies’ in Japan, which will fold if interest rates rise. It’d be interesting to explore this, and whether it will affect the USA, Europe and the UK — all of which have already seen...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- You emphasise bond rates when the go above 5%. I take that this is important. But when will the crisis come to fruition? Is it predictable? And will other countries' rates also rising have any effect on the severity of the crisis if/when it c...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What's your view of the dilemma of adherence to the self-imposed fiscal rules against the need to fund defence/infrastructure commitments. Shaun, I'd be interested in your view of the 10-year gilt yield, nudging 5.1%. How much of this rise is...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- I see the heat and war in Ukraine is pushing up agricultural commodity prices like wheat. How long is the pass through time from commodity price rises to shop price increases? Also some questions around the latest Bank of England QE and QT pl...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What’s the chances of the UK running into Argentina/Turkey levels of inflation and interest rates? How genuine do you believe the economic data coming out of China to be? 1) Do you agree with me that a good move by Burnham would be to go back...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Is £65 per MWh high or low? Is there any economic benefit from having a number 10 in the north? 5 year Gilt is 4.33% and today a 2031 linker was 0.933%. Does that suggest bond markets are calculating RPI will run at 3.4% average over the next...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- This chart seems to be at odds with everything else I see and hear atm. Can you explain the growth in UK bank lending? Question for today. Do you think the pound becomes a better indicator of fiscal stress if it hits the big 1.30 $/£? On your...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on early question for tomorrows podcast if you don’t mind - “with the global pressures potentially easing, are we likely to see any downward pressure on UK mortgage rates?” Will the UK's Labour government bankrupt the country? Will they force the...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Question for today. Is it possible that the bond markets have priced Burnham being PM in already? No movement after the defence resignations which make Starmer's tenure more likely to end (probably have to wait until next Friday to know for s...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . BESSENT: INFLATION IS GOING TO BE A SHORT TERM BLIP Question: How high do you think the Bank of England will allow inflation go before the raise bank rate? Considering many punters are already suggesting inflation will hit 4 or 5 soon. Q: wil...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Morris May With broad money growing again in the EU, (+0.2%) and expected ECN rate rise this month, what growth in April's/ annual M4 figure next week will prompt the BoE MPC to react in a similar manner? Morris May With the £ weakening by ov...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Martin Whitely Whats your view of whether tax increases are actually pulling in the revenue expected? Also on debt interest costs? Morris May Does the OBR exist to make other economists look good? hes not the messiah what solace are bond PMs...

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Richard st ruth Q:😃 what do you think the Bond vigilantes are thinking about our Gilts movement over the next couple of years? Morris May To what extent do gilts sell offs relate to the £ exchange rate? We saw it to the extreme last under Tr...