Macro Pulse

Over the past few days there has been further pushback to the idea that central banks might initiate easing cycles in the immediate months ahead. Added to this the flare up of instability in the Middle East has been another factor amplifying investor anxiety. Andy Cates and Tian Yong Woon discuss these and other issues in their podcast this week. Meanwhile, our charts this week focus on: ·        ...

The soft-landing consensus that emerged toward the end of last year has come under increased scrutiny in recent days. Specifically, there are now more doubts about the notion that central banks will shift towards a much more accommodative monetary policy in the coming months. In this week's charts, we look more closely at consensus views for 2024. More specifically, we home in on: ·         The st...

The growing belief that central banks may start easing cycles within the next few months, coupled with the increasing plausibility of a soft landing for the world economy, has fuelled a rally in financial markets over recent weeks. In our charts this week we investigate that narrative with some perspectives on: ·         The policy rate consensus ·         Equity market performance ·         The U...

A growing belief that central banks have not only concluded their tightening cycles but could even initiate easing cycles within the next six months has continued to fuel a rally in and bond and equity markets over the past few days. In our charts this week, however, we steer away from the daily macro and market news cycle and highlight six charts instead that give some colour on some of the key m...

There has been little to dislodge the growing conviction in financial markets about soft landing scenarios over the past few days as data calendars have been thin and policymakers have been relatively quiet. Investors have, therefore, taken their cue from the dataflow that’s been released over the past month suggesting that inflationary pressures are cooling and that further interest rate hikes co...

Growing conviction that central banks have concluded their tightening cycles has fuelled a rally in stock and bond markets over the past two weeks. And that conviction has been reinforced by some weaker-than-expected inflation data over the past few days. In our charts this week we weigh in on this and on other factors including: ·       Core inflation trends in advanced economies ·       The glob...

During a week with minimal market-moving data and few central bank announcements, attention in the financial markets has turned towards the oil sector. This shift is primarily due to a significant drop in oil prices, which have reached three-month lows, with Brent crude trading at approximately $80 per barrel. In our charts this week we look at the following factors: Record-low global supply chain...

Financial market sentiment has improved in recent days, partly thanks to the Fed’s decision this week to leave interest rates on hold. Although this decision was largely expected, recent data from the US as well as from Europe have additionally bolstered the belief that a global tightening cycle may be near its end. In our charts this week we home in on this and other themes. Specifically we exami...

Financial markets have been more unsettled over the past few days partly because of an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. But this has been exacerbated by a mixed set of company earnings reports from the United States coupled with lingering concerns about the trajectory of bond yields. In our charts this week we offer some insights on these issues with some perspective on: ·  ...

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has continued to weigh on sentiment over the last few days not least given its potential to amplify financial instability. In our charts this week we look at this and other factors driving the global economic outlook. Specifically we home in on: ·         Geopolitical risk and financial stability ·         Energy prices and stagflation risks ·         Ch...

The flare up of geopolitical instability in Israel and Gaza has led investors to re-examine the outlook for the world economy over the past few days. But the release of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook publication also grabbed some of the financial headlines though whether its staff additionally need to now re-examine that outlook remains to be seen. In our charts this week we take a look a...

A further steep climb in US Treasury yields has been in the eye of the storm for financial markets over the past few days. In our charts this week we assess this trend and its driving factors. Specifically we home in on: ·         US yields and the dollar ·         Expectations for the Fed ·         Quantitative tightening policies and real yields ·         Inflation expectations and oil prices ·...

Financial markets have been much more unsettled in recent weeks largely thanks to a “tighter for longer” narrative from the US Fed and a further steep climb in US Treasury yields. In this week’s charts of the week publication we focus on this and other issues including: ·         Slowing world trade growth ·         Ebbing consumer confidence ·         Broad money supply contractions in the euro a...

Financial markets have been on the back foot in recent days with some oil-related inflation jitters combined with a “tighter for longer” message from the Fed a couple of contributory factors. In our charts this week, we made a nod to these and other issues with some colour on:   ·         Firming US Treasury yields ·         Higher consumer energy prices ·         UK financial markets (this year v...

Following this week’s ECB policy decision, investors will likely remain focused on central banks in the coming days with the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE all due to meet next week. With that in mind, we look at some of the key considerations for these policymakers in our charts this week. Specifically we home in on:   ·         Quantitative tightening and real yields ·         A mixed global growth co...

The world economy’s resilience over the last few months has surprised many forecasters but the incoming data from Europe coupled with a further climb in the price of oil suggest that downside risks are accumulating. In our latest charts of the week publication we dig into this with some perspectives on: ·       Recent global business surveys ·       Credit impulses in the US and euro area ·      ...

The trend toward higher government bond yields that had been in vogue for much of August has reversed in recent days. This can be traced to a batch of weaker-than-expected economic data and stronger suggestions, in particular, that the US labour market is re-balancing. In our charts this week we offer some colour on:   ·       The re-balancing of the US labour market ·       Data surprises in the...

Some of anxiety that has lately gripped financial markets has ebbed a little in the early half of this week but investors are no longer actively embracing the soft landing consensus that had previously held sway. Our charts this week focus on the following related themes: ·       China’s structural growth foundations ·       The Bank of Japan and higher yields ·       The US economy’s resilience ·...

The mood in financial markets has soured over the past few days thanks to some downbeat messages from the global dataflow and most notably from China. The minutes released from the Fed’s July FOMC meeting further contributed to this negativity. Our charts for this week offer additional insight on this and, more specifically, on the following factors: ·       Investor sentiment ·       The US macro...

Financial markets have continued to gravitate toward the ‘Goldilocks’ scenario where economic growth is neither “too hot” nor “too cold” and where inflation gradually moderates to more target-friendly levels. But while that view may have appeared overly optimistic a few weeks ago, much of the incoming data more recently appears to support this narrative. In our charts this week we focus on: ·    ...

The downgrade of US government debt by a credit rating agency has been a big driver of this week’s financial market gyrations. The decision by the Bank of England to lift policy rates by 25bps (with hints of more to follow) coupled with firmer-than-expected private sector payrolls data from the US also served as a reminder that central banks may not yet have completed their tightening cycles. In o...

Central banks have dominated the financial headlines over this past week but, with the possible exception of the BoJ, they don’t appear to have spawned any big policy surprises so far. That said their communications continue to suggest a readiness to calibrate monetary policy at a more restrictive level if the incoming dataflow exceed their expectations. With this in mind our charts this week home...

The mood in financial markets has remained upbeat over the past few days partly thanks to some stronger-than-expected US earnings reports. Last week’s weaker-than-expected inflation data have also continued to lift hopes that a hard landing scenario can be avoided. As we illustrate in our charts this week, however, the incoming data from elsewhere has not been as auspicious. More specifically this...

This week’s weaker-than-expected US inflation data coupled with tentative evidence suggesting that labour market activity may be cooling have driven soft landing scenarios into the ascendancy once again. With this in mind our charts this week home in on the following themes: ·       The decoupling of the global growth consensus ·       The decoupling of the inflation consensus ·       The importan...

Financial markets have been rattled both by more hawkish communications from central banks and some much firmer-than-expected US labour market data in recent days. The consensus that monetary policy tightening cycles were close to completion and that soft landing scenarios were plausible is now being more actively challenged. In our charts this week we drill into the following issues: ·       The...