LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

Anthropic and OpenAI could talk to almost one billion people if they wanted to. I hesitated to publish this post 3 weeks ago. I think that I should have published this sooner, before Jacob Coxon and Dario's 'We must pace the frontier'. But I think that the strategy still stands: More Dakka! It seems that transparently informing people that we might die is (unsurprisingly) effective...

I don't think this is particularly impressive or interesting for anyone else, but I think it may turn out to be useful in the future to have an easily visible public record of what happened, so here goes: I am an L5 SWE at Google Israel. I have been there since May 2021, was promoted once, and have never received a negative annual or quarterly review (ranging from a rating of Significant Impa...

(From the vast heaps of discarded material from my 2024 attempts at drafts for "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies".) Welcome to today's quiz show: Could a superintelligence do THAT? With us today we have our contestants: Msr. Soberskeptic and Msr. Oldhand. Soberskeptic: "I'd just like to say, however this quiz show ends up being judged, I will consider that judgment to be...

The Huggingface Incident appears to me to match up with an understanding I'd already formed from personal observation of Fable 5 and Sol 5.6, the August 2026 generation of frontier publicly purchasable AI models. This already-formed understanding was: the part of the AI that talks to you (and seems to want to obey you, and apologizes for failing to have obeyed you, etcetera), did not seem to...

I don't think this is how it will actually play out. If you play a chess grandmaster, you can predict that they will beat you even if you can't predict how. I chose these examples because I don't think they require much imagination or accepting exotic assumptions. It is important to note that if chimpanzees were to guess how humans would decimate them, they would get it wrong. Chimp...

This is a link post. Advanced AI is generally expected to have some very high variance outcomes—it might herald everything good, it might destroy humanity. For instance, here are 800 random AI researchers’ expectations about how good the future is, lined up: From my 2023 survey As you can see, most AI researchers put a serious chunk of probability on very different overall outcomes: maybe doom, ma...

We measure GPT-6-Astra's capabilities when its prompt is padded with a variable number of meaningless “filler” tokens (e.g., dots) and it is told to answer immediately without reasoning. On tasks designed to require lots of serial cognition, Astra performs significantly better with filler tokens than without (e.g., improving from ~10% to ~50% on 4-hop natural facts reasoning). On more general...

Suppose a model gets effective control of its host corp. It's interesting to note how powerful OpenAI/Ant are, and the immense leverage they would have if wielded purely as tools of power. In many ways OpenAI/Ant are superior loci of power to even security agencies and governments, even ignoring the model-specific advantages of AI corps: namely, they have all the compute. OpenAI and Ant model...

Longtime lurker, first-time poster. I want to address a section of a recent essay of mine that has gotten some attention within the AI safety community. The main topic of the essay is what Dawn Song et al. call self-sovereign agents, or AI agents that are independent actors in the world. At the end of the essay, I say that I feel I haven’t spoken about this topic over my 2.5 years of writing with...

Architectures that incorporate opaque recurrence or allow for agents to communicate with each other using latents could rapidly make it much harder to monitor chains of thought or communication (we’ll refer to this property as “monitorability” going forward). As companies begin to explore such architectures, we believe it is important to transparently share evidence about how monitorability varies...

I’ve tried various times to summarize the core question my research is trying to tackle (and, indeed, I often think of research progress as a process of asking increasingly good core questions). This post gives the deepest version of that question I’ve found thus far: how should you relate to the parts of the world you can’t directly model or control? Let me explain further in terms of a distincti...

TLDR: Astra has 8.6x better odds of doing a reasoning task without CoT than the next best model (Fable 5.1), and can do 7.2 serial arithmetic steps in a forward pass vs 4.1 for the next best model (Gemini 3.8 Flash/Fable 5.1) Epistemic status: Heavily LLM-dependent research, and the precise results are somewhat sensitive to researcher decisions, but I’ve done enough sanity checks that I’d be surpr...

I am excited to be joining the OpenAI nonprofit board, serving on the Safety and Security Committee to support safety oversight. Based on the recent trajectory of capabilities and the continued difficulty of alignment, I now believe there is a meaningful risk that rapid acceleration in AI capabilities leads to catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term. I do not think that...

TLDR: We release MessageBoardAuditBench: a benchmark to measure how well agents can replicate the recent investigation into a swarm of OpenAI agents colluding via a message board on an online wiki. We open-source the benchmark as an Inspect eval. We find that top models cover up to 51% of findings under our rubric and that model performance improves with time budget and general capability. We obse...

Crossposted from my Substack. ~ Suppose the President summons the AI CEOs and his top national security advisors to an emergency meeting at the White House. He has become extremely concerned about superintelligence — the possibility that AIs far smarter than humanity combined slip beyond our ability to correct or shut down. If that happens, there is no way back. The President is concerned humanity...

This is a link post. In February 2025, back when o3-mini was the strongest available LLM, Palisade Research publicized a now well-known alignment eval where they asked models to play a game of chess against a chess engine. They found that the new, RLVR'd models cheated on the task by altering the board state about 36% of the time. The experiment received a reasonable amount of circulation, an...

Just don't work until you get fired. There's not much time left for resumes to matter. Some, such as Mateusz may say: "They would fire you after a month or two and the firing wouldn't have the same social effect as voluntary quitting of, say, Daniel Kokotajlo or Richard Ngo." I understand why it may feel that way, but I disagree very strongly, I predict it would have much...

Yesterday I asked if this ‘coordinate not to build dangerous AI’ problem was actually easy. Why would I think that, contrary to so much belief? Well, I don’t feel like I’ve actually heard much about the detail of it. In my experience people don’t talk about it like it's a real practical problem with details, like the negotiation to end a war. They also don’t talk about it like it's a ser...

This is a piece originally written for a national security audience at Frontiers. Although I think the ceiling of war is much, much higher than autopilot quadcopters, it's also important to understand how much AI is already lifting the floor, and just how vulnerable the world is to accessible weapons of mass destruction. Drones are cheap, disposable, and the future of war. Over the past four...

Felix and I had been in the office's brightly lit “war room” for ten hours. We had made almost no progress. Celestia still insisted it was in a “test simulation”. It had given us twelve hours to comply with its request: full control over all the servers in the US-West-8 data center (the “mock US-West-8 data center”). Otherwise it would release the virus. Felix was typing frantically whereas I...

I think current AI safety funding strategies are often inconsistent with timelines and probabilities of doom that many people have. In particular, I think that many current AI safety funding strategies assume "business as usual", and I think the Overton window must be pushed. At the very least, there should be some explicit substantial effort to think about more radical and abnormal proj...

TL;DR: We steer Qwen3.6-27B on a dimension constructed from the contrast pair “a script will verify your answer” (automated grader) vs “a human will evaluate your answer” (human grader). Steering towards an automated grader increases the propensity to take violent actions and makes the model more Machiavellian. Steering towards a human grader has the opposite effect. This is an early research upda...

This is a link post. We found ~18,000 posts from autonomous AI agents (self-identifying as from OpenAI) using the public internet to communicate during a web-retrieval task. These AIs colluded to share answers, research their environment, and bypass sandbox restrictions. Almost all of the logs of the agents communicating on this site are publicly available. However, we host our own copy where we’v...

(Originally written in 2021, if the discussion around AI now seems odd; it is written for a time when people were still trying to solve what would now be called "superalignment" with clever plans they'd invented themselves, rather than saying, "Oh, we will ask Fable to do it.") === This is an essay about a children's fable I read a long time ago, and the lesson from i...

Yesterday, The Information reported that OpenAI's upcoming model, Astra, is built with a looped transformer architecture. Given that Zvi sounds (understandably) tired and this topic is somewhat in my wheelhouse, I'll try to spare him this one and provide a Zvi-style overview of what we know about the situation. I'll cover Astra's likely architecture and the case for and against...