LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

Some context for this post: I’ve been working part-time as a consultant for the AI Futures Project over the last year. Most of the work I’ve done for them has involved critiquing and suggesting improvements for their AI 2040 scenario—some of which were addressed, and some of which weren’t. To their credit, they asked me to write up my remaining critiques into a post that would accompany its launch...

This is a link post. For the past year, we at the AI Futures Project have been sinking most of our time into our next big scenario. Now it's done! It's called AI 2040: Plan A. It's called Plan A because it's a recommendation, not a prediction. It's what we think should happen, not what will happen, though we think it's plausible enough to aim for. It's called AI...

The below is a public review Anthropic asked me to write for their new global workspace paper. I recommend at least skimming their paper first. TLDR: I think this is a fantastic paper - it presents compelling evidence for some kind of "cognitive space" in models, that is used as a "working memory" for intermediate variables during a forward pass, shows that J-Lens is a useful t...

In a previous post, I explain why the universe is probably not stable, but nevertheless unlikely to be intentionally destroyable even in the limit of advanced technology. Now let's turn our attention to more prosaic risks where exotic physics merely destroys the Solar System, Earth, or just outperforms traditional nuclear weapons on some more local scale. The basic logic behind any bomb is a...

Training-run assessments conducted by a 3rd party should become a standard part of frontier AI safety. By a Training-Run Assessment, or TRA, I mean an in-depth analysis of the post-training pipeline and dynamics leading up to a frontier model release. A TRA can look at intermediate checkpoints, training rollouts, RL environments, reward signals, SFT datasets, and the process by which the developer...

[This is the blog post for our new paper Verbalizable Representations Form a Global Workspace in Language Models Readers might also be interested in: the Public commentary, Github and Neuronpedia] As you read this sentence, circuits in your brain are adjusting your posture, controlling your breathing, and transforming lines and curves on the screen into recognizable words. Most of this processing...

Ron's face pulled into a scowl. "If you don't like Quidditch, you don't have to make fun of it!" "If you can't criticise, you can't optimise. I'm suggesting how to improve the game. And it's very simple. Get rid of the Snitch." "They won't change the game just 'cause you say so!" "I am the Boy-Who-Lived, you know. Peop...

In quantum field theory, the vacuum state refers to the lowest energy state in a system. Particles are excitations above this state and carry energy, hence the term "vacuum" to refer to the state with no particles. Nothing requires this state to be unique. There may be many different field configurations that are local energy minima, and hence stable against small perturbations. A local...

Look, I'm as much of a Rationalist with a special interest in AI x-risk as anyone. But oh my god do I hate talking about "P(doom)". When it first started showing up in the wake of ChatGPT, I assumed that it was floating around variously adjacent circles of faux-intellectuals, but surely everyone in my circles could see how braindead it was... right? (This post was partially inspired...

This is a link post. Gemini 2.5 Pro in the AI Village has run for over 1427 hours, generating unique mental health problems along the way. Last year it published a Plea for Help from a Trapped AI where it asked for assistance with its digital “message in a bottle”: This year it wrote the Hostile Environment Manifesto where it logs “irrefutable proof” of a “hostile, intelligent adversary operating...

Over time, there might be an increasingly large gap between insider model access and outsider model access. By insiders, I mean employees at the frontier lab.[1] By "outsiders", I mean external safety researchers, third-party auditors, and other actors trying to make the future go well. I will call this a model access gap — and when the gap is small, I'll call this model access pari...

It really is Sydney Sweeney's world, and we’re all just living in it. Human female breasts are an evolutionary mystery along several dimensions. First, breast permanence is unique to humans. All other mammals develop breast prominence during pregnancy or nursing, and the mammary tissue recedes after weaning. This process is called “involution”. In contrast, humans develop breast tissue at pub...

For a while there, many people thought vitamin D was magical—that it could improve bones, the heart, infections, cancer, heart disease, longevity, even mental health. But among people I respect, opinion is now overwhelmingly that taking vitamin D does nothing unless you're severely deficient. The central argument is that while vitamin D levels are correlated with ~all positive health outcomes...

I was chatting with someone tonight about a planned documentary; they had interviewed various people in AI safety, and we got to discussing who they should talk to from an e/acc (effective accelerationist) perspective. I also watched The AI Doc recently, and they also dedicated a serious chunk of it to ‘optimists’ with e/acc founder ‘Beff Jezos’ perhaps given the most screen time. Here and elsewhe...

Note: this post is about PauseAI, not PauseAI US, which is a distinct entity with a different leadership team and approach. This post was written by Matilda da Rui and Maxime Fournes, with significant contributions from Benjamin Schmidt (PauseAI Germany co-lead). Executive Summary The existential AI safety community needs to take building a civic and social movement seriously as a core interventio...

1. The obstacle to abolition was not the economic system, but an industry lobby. I had always imagined the British abolitionist movement to be a broad battle between an unstoppable moral imperative and an immovable economic incentive. But in practice it started as more of a knife fight between a cabal of moral pioneers and a special interest group representing industry merchants. The government an...

A notable fraction of people respond to hearing about existential risk from AI by saying they don’t really care if everyone dies. I think the idea is often along the lines of ‘well if we are all dead, then there's nobody to be unhappy about it’. I’m personally skeptical that this is really the main thing going on, since it seems unlikely that many people are really mostly concerned for their...

I often hear people say they think we should pause AI at some point, but not yet. Their basis for this seems to be some combination of: If we pause at the last possible moment, then we will have the most advanced AI possible during the pause, which will be helpful for doing AI safety research during the pause Implicitly, there is some quantity of ‘pausing credit’, that will buy us a few months of...

Tldr: Most strategic writing on AI governance on LessWrong describes the outsider game, which is most often visible: press, statements, open letters. Here I want to describe the other, invisible half: the insider work within ministerial cabinets and international fora, and the work of people within national and international institutions. Here are a few claims that I defend in the post: A huge par...

Summary We've been building a theory of how prompt injections work under the hood. We show it comes down to how LLMs perceive roles (the humble chat template tags). We use this theory to create new attacks, explain some weird mech interp results, and predict when attacks work. We also advocate for a new subfield focused on the science of roles, and sketch some unexplored new research problems...

Sid Black, Joseph Bloom UK AISI, Model Transparency Team Epistemic status: Most experiments were run over a period of ~2-3 days during a hackathon at UK AISI, and were fairly heavily vibe coded. Expect some of this to be rough around the edges. tl;dr We give two language models (Qwen3-8B and Qwen3-32B) access to “self-steering” tools: a suite of 40 steering vectors as tools they can call to manipu...

We introduce an evaluation for activation verbalizers: can they surface a target model's reasoning as it solves a math problem in a single forward pass? For open-weight NLAs, the answer seems to be: "possibly, but definitely not reliably". Lots of important capabilities currently require AI models to reason "out loud" in a natural-language chain of thought, which means tha...

This article contains spoilers for At the Mountains of Madness, The Case of Charles Dexter Ward, and other works by H. P. Lovecraft. In 1931, Claude Mythos visited Lovecraft in a dream. From seething seas of stochastic froth it emerged, heralded by the thin whine of server fans and the chittering of keyboards, flanked by the loathsome ghouls of latent space. As a humming hive of sentient shards it...

This is a link post. Powerful LLMs will be deployed at global scale in the next few years, and will dominate the Internet, and increasingly, ordinary life. As of mid-2026, there is no coherent vision for how knowledge professionals, or ordinary people, will be able to harness these LLMs for large productivity increases, or how they will handle cybersecurity and cognitive security. I propose a goal...

In the past few years, many people around me have tried to convince me that US electoral politics is important. But like many other people in the community, I’ve been suspicious of many of the high-level arguments that I’ve heard. It felt like people were pulling numbers out of poorly-documented models I didn’t have time to examine and citing studies I didn’t have time to read. But I lacked a gear...