In Moscow's Shadows

In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gangsters in Ekaterinburg. But it's bigger than that, and I locate the conflict in the context of Russia's receding role as regional hegemon, the politics of personalised authoritaria...

After some thoughts about the recent NATO summit in The Hague, I focus on the perennial challenge of corruption. Even Russian officials are admitting it is again on the rise, and becoming more predatory, While there is a regular litany of middle-ranking officials charged and sentenced, there is no political will to tackle grand corruption at the top of the system -- and declining capacity to comba...

There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the Soviet war in Afghanistan is any comparison, arguably every bit as important will be the narratives, how people frame the war and use it to attack or defend Putin's regime. I feel this is a political challenge they are not well suited to master...

In the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under the bus? He certainly has much more scope and reason to do so than in 2022-24. In the second half, I climb onto my soapbox to consider -- criticise -- some recent rhetoric about the Russian threat and bemoan the lack of dialogue, especially military-to...

A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to. The podcast's c...

An IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, needs must... In the first part, I look at recent development around Ukraine. Then, in the second, I look at the recent 'electoral wargame' held by Conducttr and spin off that more broadly to consider the challenges of 'resiliency' i...

Negotiations (of a sort) in Istanbul: a real engagement or just a piece of theatre? The answer, of course, is a bit of both. And what can one read into the elevation of Colonel General Mordvichev as the new commander of Russian Ground Forces? The link to the Conducttr wargame I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative...

The 200th episode! Hard to believe. After briefly assessing Putin's late-night offer of talks with Kyiv, I dig into the Victory Day parade and what it means, especially from an international angle, and how it was part of a love letter to Xi Jinping. The events I mentioned next week in Prague are at CEVRO University , the Institute of International Relations and the Prague Book Festival , with...

General Ivan Popov, once hailed as one of the heroes and rising stars of the Russian army, has just been sentenced to 5 years in a general regime penal colony on what seem questionable charges. What brought down this 'fighting general' -- and what does it tell us about late Putinism and the potential nationalist critique of the regime? The sign-up page for the Conducttr info-political wa...

In the first half, I consider the latest twists in the saga of the US-pushed 'ceasefire' plan. Has Trump has an epiphany in the Vatican, or will Kyiv still face a choice of evils? In the second, I draw a line between the gunning down of a mobster in Tbilisi with the twilight of Putinism, through leaking roofs and the likelihood of mob wars. The podcast's corporate partner and sponso...

An intemperate recent interview from Foreign Minister Lavrov, at which he warned that 'fifth columnists' within the elite wanted to hand Russia to the West on a platter, is typical of a new tome of populist nationalism that got me wondering. Putin's Russia is often called 'fascist' but this is a label of dubious accuracy. Are there hints that Russia could turn fascist? I s...

In the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former FSB general Sergei Beseda, 'the Baron.' In the second half, for Cosmonautics Day, I look at the ailing Russian space programme. The FPRI report by Pavel Luzin I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conductt...

A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media! The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here . The RUSI commentary on the OSCE is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can al...

Comrades!  Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic and foreign policy, with another to follow covering the war and more. Climate change and oligarchic rivalry, Belarusian cunning and Central Asian balancing, all this and a lot more... The Washington Post article ‘Art of dissent: How Russians protest t...

One, I suspect, more for the wonks. I dig into Prime Minister Mishustin's lengthy and not-so-exciting annual report to parliament, and the responses from the 'opposition' for what is said, and what's not. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civ...

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or frozen...). What if it could be in months not years? It won't happen, for all kinds of reasons, but let's entertain it as a 'what if?' thought experiment. PS: I got my digits muddled: it's Article 42, clause 7 of the Treaty if Eu...

What shapes Russian foreign policy? I start by looking at the core issue of the moment, Moscow's thinking over the proposed ceasefire, then consider more broadly what kind of a bizarre and varied mix of institutions and individuals actually shape policy. The Sunday Times article I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for inn...

Reflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Trump's apparent threat to increase sanctions on Russia to a spy case in the UK. In the second half, I look at two recent books, Political Legitimacy and Traditional Values in Putin's Russia , edited by Helge Blakkisrud & Pål Kolstø (Edin...

Much as I would love not to have to keep talking about Trump, it's inevitable that I cover the extraordinary events of this week: Trump as King Lear, demanding obsequious flattery, Zelensky perhaps ought not to have made the trip to DC. So where now? And in the second half, the Russian police in crisis, demoralised, under-strength and with corruption again on the rise. Another very real succe...

In a more-freeform-than usual episode, I consider the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, why Trump is such a Putin fanboy (more about being a wannabe strongman than because of any kompromat), and what this means for peace in Ukraine. The summary? There is no deal on Ukraine, and we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, but there is at least a chance for some kind of a deal. Maybe. The p...

As Russia-watchers, we know that Russia is not just Russian, or Russian Orthodox, but there is also a glib assumption that to be Muslim or otherwise a minority is to be depressed, repressed, and suppressed. So how to explain Tatarstan, one of the few regions where the titular nationality is a majority (54% Tatar, 54% Muslim), yet one which seems to work well enough within the Russian Federation? T...

Originally one of the 'Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas' bonuses for Patrons, in this short pod I explore whether, when the soldiers come home, Russia is likely to experience a problem of a dispossessed and alienated generation akin to the 'Afghan Syndrome' which faced the veterans of the Soviet Afghan war. Sadly, the answer is probably so. Support the show

The Russian response to Tucker Carlson's claim that the Biden administration tried to assassinate Putin has to a large extent been driven by political expediency -- it makes a great propaganda narrative -- but there does seem to be more to it than that? Why is modern Russia, from Putin down, so prone to seeing the world through a conspiratorial lens, everything determined by behind-the-scenes...

How else, frankly, to title an episode which covers Trump and Putin, the CIA's Ukrainian cooperation, Russo-Iranian and -Indian relations, Belarus, and four books on Crimea's history? The Vlad Vexler commentary I mentioned is here . The Moscow Times article on Russian-Indian relations is here . The four books I cover are: The Eurasian Steppe by Warwick Ball (Edinburgh University Press, 2...

The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and what does it show us about the wider challenges (and some missed opportunities) for supporting Kyiv? The texts are available here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive cri...