In Moscow's Shadows

The fastest way to lose your grip on Russia is to reach for the word “war” every time a scary headline lands. The incentives are everywhere: politicians who want public backing for big defence spending, media outlets that live on attention, and all of us who share first and think later.  I look at two particular examples: the current fascination in the British press with the idea that Russia may l...

Power doesn’t just seize territory. It seizes the story. I’m using a selection of 6 excellent new books to follow the narrative battlegrounds where modern Russia tries to control what people see as true, normal, and inevitable, and where society still finds ways to push back even when formal protest is risky, whether in framing Harry Potter, or surviving in the occupied Donbas. The books in questi...

Putin reportedly gathered top oligarchs behind closed doors and asked them to chip in to help fill the budget, with the war in Ukraine sitting unmistakably in the background. The idea seems to have been initiated by Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s gravel-voiced boss and one of the most polarising figures in Putin’s circle. After keeping a low profile since 2022, why is he coming back into the news? Because...

A handful of memes and an online storm can look like nothing, right up until they start steering the news cycle. Efforts to talk up a secessionist Russian-speaking Estonian “Narva People’s Republic” look like a Kremlin disruption operation: manufacturing attention, stoking anxiety, and forcing journalists and officials into a no-win choice between silence and amplification.  Rather more significan...

Or, 'Team Russia and the Undead Ideology Project'  Can you create an ideology that is custom-engineered, poll-driven, focus grouped, workshopped and marketed? The Presidential Administration's Alexander Kharichev is certainly trying, suggesting the Kremlin's concerns about the future. I also discuss Marlene Laruelle's excellent book  Ideology and Meaning-Making under the P...

How does the Iran war look to Russia, at once a potential morass for the USA (and Europe) and a case study, many in policy circles feel, on why not to trust Washington. It's also a laboratory for what one Russian military theorist called "non-contact war," and may help shape Moscow's notions of the future of conflict. Then it’s home to Moscow’s underworld, where a fragile peace...

First, as the USA, Israel and Iran trade drone and missile strikes, how the war  may play out for Russia: my sense is that on balance it will give Moscow more opportunities than headaches.  Then, from bangers to Mish: decoding Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s annual report to the State Duma. Think of a head butler in a grand house: no say in the party upstairs, every burden downstairs. The techn...

A frozen river swallows cannons in 1550; a traffic jam of armour stalls outside Kyiv in 2022. Different centuries, same lesson: wars are won by planning, logistics, and the courage to listen to people who know what they’re doing. Ivan the Terrible took Kazan in 1552, learning crucial lessons of warfare and statecraft that Putin the Not So Great neglected when invading Ukraine in 2022. Spinning off...

In the first half, I look at the latest news about Navalny's death, what a change in the composition of the Russian negotiation team in Geneva may mean, and why looking for a dubious Russian connection in the Epstein case risks missing the real scandal: how powerful people and institutions tolerated what they knew. Then, to answer the larger question—what kind of country is Russia?—I spin off...

A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses. Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest, I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her book Rebel Russia : Russia’s past is full of uprisings and dissent, yet weak social solidarity keeps those bursts of courage from becoming lasti...

Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technically, GU; colloquially, still GRU) is gunned down in Moscow. Whodunnit, whydunnit, and what will it mean? Of course, I don't know, but I have a stab at these questions. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides...

A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, opening the gates on Vladimir Putin’s personal security. From rooftop snipers and sealed manholes to an armoured Aurus limo and a “ghost train” that slips through the rail network without a schedule, the machinery is vast, expensive, and designed to smother threats before they form. The podcast&apos...

Four stories with counter-intuitive implications: PACE’s new platform for dialogue with “Russian democratic forces” beg the question of whether a handpicked roster, quota politics, and delegates closely tied to Ukrainian advocacy strengthen dialogue with Russians or hand the Kremlin an easy propaganda win.  Does the much-hyped energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine offer little repair time bu...

First, a look at some of the news as this year starts hard and bizarre: trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (with military intelligence chiefs to the fore), the Greenland crisis and the perils of Trump's Board of Peace for a Russia that we might consider a 'middle power.' Then, once-in-a-generation blizzards in Kamchatka as a test of state capacity and Putin's engagement. With Kadyro...

A tabloid brands Zelensky’s Christmas address a “black mass,” complete with glassy eyes, hidden codes, and a trance to “hack the noosphere” to cast a death curse on Putin. Huh? What? Why are occult narratives creeping from the fringe into Russia’s mainstream? And, for that matter, why are notions such that Russia is now in the grip of a "nihilistic death cult" also warping Western thinki...

The talk of a military force provided by the 'Coalition of the Willing' to help secure Ukraine after a peace is a non-starter, not least as it would preclude any peace deal. But it's easy to snipe from the sidelines, so this episode I stick my neck out: what do I think would represent a credible security guarantee for Ukraine that would also permit a peace? Buckle in, it's a lo...

Before the self-indulgence of a deep-dive into the rise and fall of the Chechen Lazanskaya Brigada in Moscow -- and why there are some worrying implications for the coming situation in Russia and Europe -- I look at recent developments: the appointment of Budanov as Zelensky's new chief of staff, the US operation in Venezuela, and recent drone strikes... The podcast's corporate partner a...

To end the year, instead of the grand sweep of geopolitics, let's look at a collection of people making the news, sometimes whether they like it or not. (PS: Listened to JD Vance at the Moscow Security Conference? A Freudian slip there -- of course, I meant Munich Security Conference!) And of course, as befits the last episode of the year, a little round up and thanks to everyone listening --...

Putin's latest marathon press conference/call-in show Itogi Goda ('Results of the Year'), once Direct Line, has become an annual ritual. 4.5 hours, 3M submitted questions, but what can we learn? Intransigence over Ukraine, attempts to talk up the economy, but a marked disconnect with a population that feels its social contract has been broken... and a president who felt just a littl...

A demilitarised zone that invites armoured cars. A referendum that can’t be fairly run. A €210 billion pot that solves today’s bills but complicates tomorrow’s peace.  We start with shuttle diplomacy and the hard edges of a potential DMZ in Donetsk. On paper it pauses the fight; in practice Rosgvardiya blurs policing and militarisation, turning “demilitarised” into a loophole big enough for armour...

There's not all that much to say about the Ukraine peace negotiations as delegations head to the USA and Russia, but I cover a few issues, from Trump's 'businessified' approach to geopolitics to the departures of both Andrii Yermak and Dmitri Kozak. In the second half, I use Russian folklore, and the arrays of terrifying threats in the deep woods and the potentially terrifying...

In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms of what it is  not . In the second, I spin off Susanna Rabow-Edling's excellent book,  The First Russian Revolution. The Decembrist Revolt of 1825 (Reaktion Books) to consider some of the modern resonances. The podcast's corporate partner an...

From where's Lavrov to whether it's time for Europe to speak to Putin directly, some questions with wider significance raised during my recent hectic trip to Finland. And, in the second half, how should we think about the likely fall of Pokrovsk and what to make of Ukraine's Midas Case corruption scandal -- and how it's being covered in Russia? The podcast's corporate part...

We need to talk about post-Putin. It's fruitless at this point to try and come up with names of potential successors -- but maybe we can identify potential archetypes, the kinds of people who might succeed him, depending on the perceived needs of the day. The Julian Waller article I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for i...

The forthcoming release of the updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN gives me an excuse to consider whether and how Putin has changed since I originally wrote the book in 2018. My conclusion: not so much a different Putin as 'Putin squared.' In the second half, I discuss and riff off Russia’s Turkish Wars. The Tsarist Army and the Balkan Peoples in the Nineteenth Century by V...