HyperChange

My expectations for Tesla's financials in Q2, are $5.9B in revenue and $121M in GAAP operating income. If deliveries continue ramping, Tesla has a good shot of hitting its (pre-COVID) 2020 delivery guidance of 500,000+ units. Additionally, with deliveries beating production by about 8K units in the quarter, cash flow will likely be positive (around $1B). On the conference call I'll be looking for...

A conversation with Vivas Kumar about potential strategies for Tesla to enter the India market. With only ~4M passenger vehicles sold in India each year, the addressable market for Tesla's 4-wheeled vehicles is small. On the other hand, the opportunity for Powerpack/Powerwall + Solarroof to fix the grid, is massive. Additionally, there could be a huge opportunity to leverage Tesla's battery techno...

New reports indicate that just ~8% of Quibi's free trial users are converting to the service. My estimate is that Quibi has ~144K paying subscribers, generating about $12M in annual revenue. This is wayyyy below the company's targets, and is not a good sign for the future. Quibi is running out of money and will need to show massive user growth to convince investors to keep pouring in capital. Rais...

A conversation with Sean Mehta, a battery scientist at Sila Nanotechnologies, about the potential of transition metal-free Cathodes & their potential to disrupt the battery materials supply chain. I learned a ton in this interview!! What are your thoughts about this exciting technology & lab results??

SpaceX's low earth orbit satellite project, Starlink, continues to progress at a rapid clip. I got an email last night, asking me to enter my exact address to see if I'm eligible for the beta testing.  Starlink is planning to begin delivering internet service THIS SUMMER. With 500+ satellite's already in orbit, and many launches planned in the near future, this seems like it's already a done...

My interview from last month with the Motley Fool. We cover all things Tesla and my long-term investing thesis on the company. Huge shoutout to Buck Hartzell & The Motley Fool for inviting me!! This interview was recorded on June 11th, 2020.

Tesla has raised the price of it's Full-Self Driving (FSD) packaged yet again, from $7K to $8K. Elon Musk has hinted that the long-term value could be $100K+, once general autonomy and regulatory approval has been achieved. In the meantime, incremental gross margin expansion because of raising FSD prices will be a massive financial tailwind for the company. This will justify the 'Computers on Whee...

Interview with Tom Smith, the CEO/Founder of Brooklyn-based male-fertility startup Dadi. Previously, Tom worked at Apple HQ and then founded Imoji, a sticker company that sold to GIPHY in 2017. His newest venture, Dadi, offers direct to consumer at-home sperm testing, and storage. He's bringing much needed disruption to the male fertility space, by leveraging the power of technology to help famili...

Tesla has opened Cybertruck pre-orders in the world's 2nd largest pickup market, China! This is a huge clue that Tesla is moving forward with possible local Cybertruck production plans in China, and will be selling the truck there soon! What are your estimates for Chinese Cybertruck demand??

This is not a drill. Tesla has released official Short Shorts in its merch store for $69.420. These limited edition red & gold shorts wit 'S3XY' on the butt are an inside joke for Tesla shareholders. Tesla has been one of the most shorted & criticized stocks for years... with numerous billionaire short-sellers/skeptics. Now those haters have been proven wrong, as the stock is up 228% so fa...

Amazon has purchased Zoox for $1.2B. The San Francisco based startup is developing autonomous vehicle technology. Zoox has raised more than $1B in funding, and was valued at over $3B in 2018. The question is why did Amazon get the on the cheap and what technology was so valuable? What we do know, is that Amazon continues to vertically integrate its logistics network, and is constantly testing new...

Arcimoto stock has soared more than 450% in the past 3 months, on the back of ramping deliveries and new financing. In June, the company raised $17M, giving them enough funding to put the pedal to the metal. I caught up with CEO/Founder Mark Frohnmayer, to get his take on the recent Hyrecar partnership & funding news.

Tesla beats everyone's estimates and reports deliveries of 90,650 for Q2 2020. Despite over a month of the Fremont factory being shutdown and a global pandemic, Tesla was able to grow its deliveries by 2% sequentially. My projections indicate the company is still on track to hits its annual 2020 delivery guidance of 500,000+ vehicles. This would be 36% growth from 2019, despite the world falling a...

Tesla Q2 2020 Deliveries & Production Preview. A strong quarter from Gigafactory Shanghai and Model Y could push Tesla deliveries to 90,000+ (my estimate) for the quarter. This is wayyyy higher than any of us were thinking at the end of Q1, and puts profitability for the quarter within reach!

Interview with Vivas Kumar, ex Battery Supply Chain Manager for Tesla, now a Principal at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Vivas prepared a 34 slide presentation about the state of the Lithium industry, and battery materials supply chain. As EV sales climb from 1M/year to 50M/year over the next decade or two, massive investments need to be made in the raw materials supply chain. This is an in depth...

New documents confirm Tesla is expanding battery manufacturing and R&D operations in Palo Alto. This essentially confirms Tesla's 'Project Roadrunner', a top secret initiative with the goal of producing battery cells in house (with a cost below $100kWh). With up to 100 people working in 4 shifts 24/7, it seems like Tesla is truly ramping capacity of these new cells. But many questions remain ....

Update on my Spotify options trade from 3/4 weeks ago. I decided to close out my position with a 110% profit & return to my option retirement! I'm still holding all my Spotify shares and am very pumped about the future they are building. Remember nothing on HyperChange is financial advice!!

Tesla has posted it's most in-depth corporate sustainability report yet. This analysis of the company's ever improving carbon emissions per vehicle, shows why Tesla is way ahead of the pack. From tailpipe emissions, to battery efficiency, to water usage, Tesla continues to push the envelope on becoming as sustainable as possible! This makes me so proud to be a shareholder :)

Doing a live radio broadcast about Tesla’s ramping Model Y deliveries! I just saw my first two in the wild! This was my first time trying this content format & having people call in, it was so fun, thanks for joining!

I caught up with Arcimoto CEO/Founder Mark Frohnmayer to discuss his new partnership with Sandy Munro, to help bring the FUV into mass production. These are two of my favorite people in the EV/transportation world, and I think Sandy Munro will add a lot of value to Arcimoto's production ramp. His industry expertise can cut costs, improve ramp speed, and bring decades of Detroit experience to Arcim...

Deep dive into Nikola Motors, the hydrogen/electric truck startup that recently completed a reverse merger to list on the NASDAQ, and trades for a valuation of ~$12B ($35.97 per share). I'm joined by Matt Joyce to break down the company's strategy & CEO Trevor Milton's ambitious vision. The company's claims to have breakthrough battery and hydrogen fuel cell technology, seem too good to be tru...

Zoom reports Q1 FY21 revenue of $328M, up 169%. The company reported record EBIT of $23M, and $251M of free cash flow in the quarter. Revenue guidance for the full year has increased to $1.775-$1.8B, implying 187% growth from last year. With a market capitalization of $60B, this implies a 34X forward price/sales ratio. Will Zoom's fundamentals be able to grow fast enough to justify a $200/share pr...

Interview with Novonix COO and Co-Founder, Dr. Chris Burns. The former Jeff Dahn researcher turned advanced battery materials entrepreneur, is on the cusp of commercializing a new synthetic graphite called PureGraphite. Tesla battery researcher Jeff Dahn has been touting Novonix's new dry particle microgranulation (DPMG) breakthrough as having huge potential. Panasonic/Sanyo (who supplies Tesla's...

Could a Department of Energy project known as the Battery 500 Consortium be working with Tesla to commercialize next generation lithium ion batteries? On May 19th, the Battery 500 Consortium released an update about its project, saying they've achieved an energy density of 350 Wh/kg., that can last for 350 charge cycles. This is a huge improvement from a couple years ago, and signals the technolog...

Ever since the Joe Rogan news, I've been thinking more and more about Spotify's push into video content later this year. Not only did I buy stock, but. also bought some long-term call options (which I almost never do). In this video I break down the structure of my trade and thoughts behind it! More Spotify videos soon about the valuation!