Doll’s Deliberations

Bob Doll reviews 2025’s broad market rally and outlines 10 concise predictions for 2026, centered on a "high-risk bull market." Key themes: modest U.S. growth, sticky inflation keeping yields higher, tighter credit conditions, slowing earnings growth, sector leadership in tech/financials, continued AI-driven volatility, and potential international outperformance. Actionable takeaway: markets are p...

Bob Doll reviews \d examines 10 predictions for 2025, concluding seven were correct. He summarizes the year’s markets: a third straight year of double-digit S&P gains, AI-driven earnings strength, a tariff-triggered drop and strong rebound, and ongoing investor optimism for 2026. The episode highlights key themes—slower economic growth with slightly higher unemployment, sticky inflation, Treas...

Stocks posted modest gains as investors priced in a likely December Fed move, but valuations are rich and late-cycle conditions raise the risk of limited returns and higher-than-usual volatility in 2026. Economic growth remains sturdy, inflation is likely to stay above target, and expectations for aggressive Fed cuts may be overly optimistic. Crossmark’s outlook is cautiously constructive for risk...

Issue 5.48 examines the macro environment heading into 2026: steady growth despite policy noise, supportive consumer and corporate finances, the lift from AI capex, and an outlook of real GDP around 2–2.5% with inflation near 3%. Investment implications include richly priced equities and tight credit spreads, limited upside for returns, and upside risks to inflation if the Fed under-delivers on ex...

Bob Doll reviews a volatile week in markets as strong third‑quarter earnings clashed with rising uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate cuts, sending high‑momentum stocks lower despite better‑than‑expected corporate results. The episode explains why earnings strength hasn’t been enough to sustain rallies, highlights risks from AI spending and credit trends, and advises watching credit spreads and...

Bob Doll reviews a mixed market week, where the Dow and S&P were slightly up while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 lagged. He explains why plentiful liquidity persists despite a reduced likelihood of a December Fed rate cut, and how fiscal looseness, sticky inflation, and rising long-term yields shape asset prices. The episode covers key risks and signals: government reopening, mixed labor and eco...

This episode reviews last week’s market pullback after three weeks of gains, highlighting sector winners and losers, breadth concerns, and subdued investor reactions to strong earnings. Bob Doll explains the macro backdrop—solid global growth, high valuations, and expectations for fewer Fed cuts—then offers a cautious view: diversify portfolios as returns may be lower over the next 6–12 months des...

Bob Doll summarizes the week: the Fed cut rates 25 basis points and will end quantitative tightening on December 1, while big-cap tech earnings beat expectations and drove market gains even as small caps and several sectors lagged. Emerging markets also showed strong performance amid continued central bank easing. Valuations and risk-taking have pushed many metrics to extremes, with inflation arou...

Stocks reached new highs as markets lean on Fed easing, favorable inflation data, and solid earnings, while select sectors lead gains and only a few lag. Despite a broadly supportive macro backdrop, markets are overbought and vulnerable to sharp corrections in assets with large "air pockets" such as gold and cryptocurrencies. Key themes include below-consensus CPI, limited fresh U.S. data due to t...

Stocks rebounded after a volatile week, with the S&P up 1.75% following a sharp sell-off. Q3 earnings kicked off strongly led by big banks, while communication services and real estate led sector gains amid churning below the surface. Economic indicators and Fed signals point to slowing growth: the Beige Book and ISM services show weakness, the labor market has cooled, and Fed remarks and minu...

Quick Q3 roundup: equities climbed as strong corporate earnings, AI optimism, and expectations of Fed easing drove markets higher, while short-term yields eased and technology led sector gains. But the backdrop is mixed — hiring has slowed, inflation remains stubborn, valuations are elevated, and soaring fiscal deficits add risk. Stay engaged with markets but remain vigilant. For a copy of the Qua...

Bob Doll reviews recent market gains and the drivers behind them: optimism about a temporary labor slowdown, expectations of Fed easing, and strong corporate profits—especially among mega-cap tech companies—while warning that equity valuations are already elevated. He recommends a cautious stance: prefer equities over bonds on a 6–12 month horizon but keep a neutral overall equity weight, modestly...

Bob Doll reviews the latest market action, noting a weekly pullback despite strong rallies and top-performing sectors like energy and utilities. He argues that accommodative central banks and rising corporate profits have kept risk assets elevated, while stretched valuations, rising gold, and high AI stock multiples create vulnerabilities. Ten key takeaways cover GDP forecasts, labor market cracks...

Stocks extended gains after the Fed’s 25bp ‘risk-management’ rate cut, with major averages and sectors like tech and communication services hitting new highs. Economic growth has cooled but is not recessionary, while inflation remains stickier than policymakers would like. Monetary conditions are becoming more accommodative, supporting asset prices for now, but rich valuations and the prospect of...

In this episode Bob Doll reviews the latest market moves, noting a record-setting stock rally amid a dovish Fed poised to cut rates even as core inflation remains stubborn and hiring cools. He explains how tariffs, slower immigration-driven labor growth, and strong corporate profits are shaping a slow-growth, mildly inflationary backdrop. Listeners will learn why markets are upbeat despite valuati...

Bob Doll reviews the week: mixed markets with the S&P up, weak August payrolls that boosted Treasury prices and Fed-cut expectations, and uneven sector performance driven by MAG-7 strength and sticky inflation. He concludes that earnings and supportive policy fuel a positive outlook, but stretched valuations, rising long-term yields, and persistent inflation make returns likely bumpy and the r...

Bob Doll reviews last week’s market moves, sector performance, and corporate earnings while highlighting growing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Investors remain focused on the prospect of lower short-term rates even as inflation and policy uncertainty rise. The episode argues that valuations are not a reliable market-timing tool and explains why ongoing Fed dovishness wi...

This episode reviews last week’s market action where the S&P 500 finished slightly higher and sector leadership was led by energy, real estate, and financials while tech lagged. Bob Doll explains why stretched MegaCap valuations, ample liquidity, and rising hopes for Fed rate cuts have driven a risk-on rally — but warns the backdrop is fragile: markets must ‘‘thread the needle’’ between weaken...

Bob Doll reviews last week’s market action: stocks rose near record highs amid strong earnings and expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts, while small caps and select sectors led gains. He cautions that inflation metrics remain above the Fed’s 2% target and that tariffs, fiscal stimulus, and concentrated market leadership create upside inflation and policy risks that could reverse current complace...

In this episode of Doll's Deliberations, Bob Doll discusses the positive performance of the S&P 500 amidst growing expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and clarity around tariffs. Despite concerns about stagflation, certain sectors like technology and communication services have shown impressive growth. The episode delves into the investment landscape, questioning whether the bul...

In this episode of Doll’s Deliberations, host Bob Doll explores the recent market downturn following a week of record highs. Learn about the factors driving the decline, including disappointing July non-farm payrolls and concerns over growth and inflation. Despite strong earnings from many companies, the market faces uncertainties, particularly from new U.S. tariff announcements and ongoing econom...

The latest episode of Doll's Deliberations dives into the recent market trends, highlighting a positive turn as stocks hit record highs. Bob Doll discusses the impact of second-quarter earnings exceeding expectations and how easing tariff tensions give investors newfound confidence. With healthcare, materials, and industrials leading the charge, the U.S. economy appears resilient despite high tari...

In this episode of Doll's Deliberations, host Bob Doll provides expert insights into the current state of the markets. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs, while President Trump's disputes with the Fed create market ripples. Technology and utilities emerge as top-performing sectors, whereas energy and health care fall behind. Bob discusses the potential market implications of a more dovish...

Welcome to Doll's Deliberations, where Bob Doll explores the intriguing dynamics shaping the global financial landscape this July. Despite a modest drop in stocks last week, both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new all-time highs, marking the beginning of another promising quarter. With the CPI and second-quarter earnings reports on the horizon, investors brace for potential fluctuations amidst ong...

Register now to secure your spot for the quarterly Webinar on Wednesday, July 9th as Bob Doll, CFA provides updates on how his 10 predictions for 2025 are faring today. This live webinar will provide you with valuable insights into current and anticipated market conditions and will conclude with a live Q&A session with both Bob and Victoria Fernandez, CFA.    If you would like to register, cli...