Doll’s Deliberations

Stocks fell sharply amid renewed Middle East conflict fears, with the S&P down 2% and NASDAQ extending losses. Energy and materials led gains while communication services lagged, and a choppy rally reflected hopes for ceasefire talks. The episode explains why the war is likely to leave a lasting inflationary footprint, pushing yields higher and creating a stagflationary bias even as growth fac...

Stocks fell for a fourth week as the Middle East conflict and volatile oil prices pushed investors toward safety. Energy and financials held up while utilities, materials and consumer staples lagged, and the market is wrestling with uncertainty about energy supplies and inflation. The Fed paused on rates while inflation remains stubbornly above targets. Crossmark recommends a cautious asset mix —...

Bob Doll reviews markets as Middle East conflict drives oil prices and investor concern. While the S&P 500 held roughly flat, the NASDAQ has softened, and energy-led price shocks raise the risk of higher headline inflation amid otherwise solid global growth. Despite volatile moves across equities, bonds, gold and crypto, Doll concludes the recent energy shock has not yet derailed the expansion...

Markets fell after the Iran attack, with the S&P down about 2% as investors rotated to cash amid geopolitical risk, stretched AI-related valuations, private credit concerns, and elevated earnings expectations. Sectors diverged: energy held up while materials, staples, healthcare and industrials led losses. Short-term volatility and oil sensitivity are elevated, but broad macro momentum, accomm...

Stocks were mixed last week as the S&P fell modestly while equal-weighted indexes and many non-U.S. markets outperformed. Big tech weakness—led by a nearly 7% drop in NVIDIA—contrasted with gains in utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, and energy. The episode argues that calmer or lower U.S. Treasury yields have supported risk assets despite AI-driven dislocations, tariff uncertainty, and...

Bob Doll recaps the week: S&P gains led by big tech and cyclical sectors, mixed sector performance, and largely favorable Q4 earnings while investors rotate away from overpriced internet names. He compares current market dynamics to 1999–2000 but notes the broader market’s appetite remains supported by corporate profits and accommodative financial conditions. The outlook stresses sticky inflat...

This episode reviews a market rotation from mega‑cap tech into cyclicals and international stocks: equal‑weighted S&P outperformed while the cap‑weighted S&P declined, with utilities, real estate and materials leading and financials and communication services lagging. Volatility stems from fading hopes for easy monetary policy, sticky inflation, and higher long‑term yields, prompting inves...

Bob Doll reviews last week’s mixed market action, noting S&P highs, sector winners and losers, and a big Friday rally. He argues that continued accommodative monetary and fiscal policies are supporting asset prices but warns that fundamentals—not liquidity—should guide investing. The episode outlines a broadly positive macro outlook, highlights risks from rising yields, inflation surprises, AI...

Bob Doll reviews a mixed week for markets: S&P 500 near record highs, sector rotation out of the U.S., strong corporate earnings, and buoyant liquidity supporting asset prices. Meanwhile, gold’s rally and stress at the long end of yield curves signal growing investor unease. Tight credit spreads, flat income growth, and falling foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries increase the risk of a bond-mar...

Bob Doll reviews last week’s market moves: stocks slipped, the dollar fell sharply, and gold hit a new record as geopolitics and policy headlines dominated. The episode explains how Japan’s election and proposed fiscal stimulus are lifting global bond yields, why the Fed may have limited room to ease further, and the two main risks for markets—rising sovereign yields and potential policy missteps....

Bob Doll's weekly market commentary reviews recent market action and argues that the “high-risk” bull market persists despite growing warning signs. Last week stocks were mixed: the S&P 500 slipped modestly while small caps and international markets outperformed; real estate, staples, and industrials led gains while financials and discretionary lagged. Key risks highlighted include rising yiel...

Bob Doll reviews recent market gains as major indexes hit all-time highs and argues that strong economic fundamentals and policy support are already priced into asset values. He warns that rich equity valuations, tight credit spreads, rising bond yields, and geopolitical and policy risks make further broad gains harder and increase vulnerability to setbacks in 2026. His bottom line: favor equities...

Bob Doll reviews 2025’s broad market rally and outlines 10 concise predictions for 2026, centered on a "high-risk bull market." Key themes: modest U.S. growth, sticky inflation keeping yields higher, tighter credit conditions, slowing earnings growth, sector leadership in tech/financials, continued AI-driven volatility, and potential international outperformance. Actionable takeaway: markets are p...

Bob Doll reviews \d examines 10 predictions for 2025, concluding seven were correct. He summarizes the year’s markets: a third straight year of double-digit S&P gains, AI-driven earnings strength, a tariff-triggered drop and strong rebound, and ongoing investor optimism for 2026. The episode highlights key themes—slower economic growth with slightly higher unemployment, sticky inflation, Treas...

Stocks posted modest gains as investors priced in a likely December Fed move, but valuations are rich and late-cycle conditions raise the risk of limited returns and higher-than-usual volatility in 2026. Economic growth remains sturdy, inflation is likely to stay above target, and expectations for aggressive Fed cuts may be overly optimistic. Crossmark’s outlook is cautiously constructive for risk...

Issue 5.48 examines the macro environment heading into 2026: steady growth despite policy noise, supportive consumer and corporate finances, the lift from AI capex, and an outlook of real GDP around 2–2.5% with inflation near 3%. Investment implications include richly priced equities and tight credit spreads, limited upside for returns, and upside risks to inflation if the Fed under-delivers on ex...

Bob Doll reviews a volatile week in markets as strong third‑quarter earnings clashed with rising uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate cuts, sending high‑momentum stocks lower despite better‑than‑expected corporate results. The episode explains why earnings strength hasn’t been enough to sustain rallies, highlights risks from AI spending and credit trends, and advises watching credit spreads and...

Bob Doll reviews a mixed market week, where the Dow and S&P were slightly up while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 lagged. He explains why plentiful liquidity persists despite a reduced likelihood of a December Fed rate cut, and how fiscal looseness, sticky inflation, and rising long-term yields shape asset prices. The episode covers key risks and signals: government reopening, mixed labor and eco...

This episode reviews last week’s market pullback after three weeks of gains, highlighting sector winners and losers, breadth concerns, and subdued investor reactions to strong earnings. Bob Doll explains the macro backdrop—solid global growth, high valuations, and expectations for fewer Fed cuts—then offers a cautious view: diversify portfolios as returns may be lower over the next 6–12 months des...

Bob Doll summarizes the week: the Fed cut rates 25 basis points and will end quantitative tightening on December 1, while big-cap tech earnings beat expectations and drove market gains even as small caps and several sectors lagged. Emerging markets also showed strong performance amid continued central bank easing. Valuations and risk-taking have pushed many metrics to extremes, with inflation arou...

Stocks reached new highs as markets lean on Fed easing, favorable inflation data, and solid earnings, while select sectors lead gains and only a few lag. Despite a broadly supportive macro backdrop, markets are overbought and vulnerable to sharp corrections in assets with large "air pockets" such as gold and cryptocurrencies. Key themes include below-consensus CPI, limited fresh U.S. data due to t...

Stocks rebounded after a volatile week, with the S&P up 1.75% following a sharp sell-off. Q3 earnings kicked off strongly led by big banks, while communication services and real estate led sector gains amid churning below the surface. Economic indicators and Fed signals point to slowing growth: the Beige Book and ISM services show weakness, the labor market has cooled, and Fed remarks and minu...

Quick Q3 roundup: equities climbed as strong corporate earnings, AI optimism, and expectations of Fed easing drove markets higher, while short-term yields eased and technology led sector gains. But the backdrop is mixed — hiring has slowed, inflation remains stubborn, valuations are elevated, and soaring fiscal deficits add risk. Stay engaged with markets but remain vigilant. For a copy of the Qua...

Bob Doll reviews recent market gains and the drivers behind them: optimism about a temporary labor slowdown, expectations of Fed easing, and strong corporate profits—especially among mega-cap tech companies—while warning that equity valuations are already elevated. He recommends a cautious stance: prefer equities over bonds on a 6–12 month horizon but keep a neutral overall equity weight, modestly...

Bob Doll reviews the latest market action, noting a weekly pullback despite strong rallies and top-performing sectors like energy and utilities. He argues that accommodative central banks and rising corporate profits have kept risk assets elevated, while stretched valuations, rising gold, and high AI stock multiples create vulnerabilities. Ten key takeaways cover GDP forecasts, labor market cracks...