Doll’s Deliberations

Bob Doll reviews a surprisingly strong Q2: equities rallied despite geopolitical shocks and $100 oil, driven by AI-led earnings, a semiconductor boom, and easing Middle East tensions that lowered oil and bond-market pressures. He outlines a cautious outlook for H2 — sticky inflation, potential Fed hikes, geopolitical fragmentation, and continued AI-driven CapEx as key market drivers — and conclude...

Stocks rose as a U.S.–Iran agreement reopened the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices lower and lifting risk assets with the Dow and Russell hitting records and the S&P up for its 11th week out of 12. While the ceasefire extension supports continued economic expansion and corporate profits, lasting peace is uncertain and setbacks remain possible. The Fed’s hawkish shift and higher odds of...

Markets rose last week with the S&P up about 0.66%, led by materials, staples and financials while tech lagged. A wave of large U.S. tech IPOs, including SpaceX's debut, raises concerns about oversupply amid frothy valuations and volatile sentiment. May CPI showed sticky inflation, and Fed pricing now implies more hikes ahead, but corporate earnings growth looks resilient. The main risks are a...

Bob Doll reviews a sharp weekly pullback in the S&P 500, sector winners and losers, and the key drivers behind market optimism — strong AI-driven earnings, oil and shipping risks tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and persistently sticky inflation. He warns that investor exuberance may be overdone as liquidity could tighten, pushing bond yields higher and pressuring equity valuations; the recommend...

Stocks closed at record highs for the ninth straight week as technology and consumer discretionary led gains, while oil and bond yields eased on hopes for an Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite strong earnings growth and supportive policy, rising inflation tied to higher energy costs and dwindling oil inventories pose a risk that a brief risk-off episode may be needed to spur agreeme...

Bob Doll reviews a week of rising stocks and sectors led by utilities, healthcare, and real estate, while rising bond yields and the Iran conflict create fresh market risks. The episode examines whether high bond yields can coexist with high stock prices, highlights the impact of energy shocks and AI-driven earnings, and concludes that solid corporate profits and accommodative policy support marke...

Markets showed narrow gains with the S&P 500 trading near all-time highs while other averages lagged. Energy led sector performance as oil prices rose on continued Strait of Hormuz disruption, but overall economic data and strong corporate earnings have so far supported risk assets. Key risks include a prolonged closure of the strait that could drain global oil reserves and push inflation high...

Bob Doll reviews the May 11, 2026 market update: a sixth straight week of all-time highs for the S&P 500, strong earnings—especially in tech and AI—and a 16% six-week gain. He explains how oil price volatility and Middle East tensions, centered on the Strait of Hormuz, are creating cross-currents that could boost inflation and bond yields, while central banks and investors weigh the trade-off...

Bob Doll reviews last week’s market rally—S&P and Nasdaq posted a fifth straight weekly gain and reached new highs—driven by strong earnings and resilient economic data despite Middle East tensions that have tightened oil and commodity supplies. He offers a cautiously optimistic outlook: monetary and fiscal support favor equities over bonds, but elevated valuations, potential supply shocks, an...

Bob Doll reviews a market rally driven by strong Q1 earnings and tech gains, with energy leading as Brent nears $100/barrel. Equity indexes hit record closes amid optimism that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil prices will ease. He warns that continued geopolitical uncertainty could keep oil and input costs elevated, making inflation stickier and posing a tail risk to corporate profits. Cro...

Bob Doll's Weekly Investment Commentary (April 20, 2026) reviews a strong week for equities—S&P +4.5%, NASDAQ nearly +7%, Russell 2000 +3.9%—as markets reacted to growing optimism about an end to the U.S.-Iran conflict. Technology, consumer discretionary and communication services led gains while energy and utilities lagged. Oil’s spike appears to have peaked and the gap between spot and 12‑mo...

Bob Doll summarizes markets after a fragile Middle East ceasefire and its impact on oil, inflation, and investor positioning. Stocks rose while sectors rotated, credit spreads stayed tame, and the outlook depends on whether the ceasefire holds and energy prices cool. Key takeaways include mixed economic data, higher payrolls, sticky price pressures, and a strategy favoring a higher stock-to-bond r...

This episode is a quarterly review of Q1 2026 covering market moves, geopolitical shocks, and economic outlook. Stocks and bonds retreated while oil rallied sharply after the Iran conflict; the S&P 500 fell, Nasdaq slid further, and small caps held modest gains. Earnings were stronger-than-expected with rising 2026 EPS estimates that compressed the S&P's forward P/E as prices fell. The rep...

Stocks fell sharply amid renewed Middle East conflict fears, with the S&P down 2% and NASDAQ extending losses. Energy and materials led gains while communication services lagged, and a choppy rally reflected hopes for ceasefire talks. The episode explains why the war is likely to leave a lasting inflationary footprint, pushing yields higher and creating a stagflationary bias even as growth fac...

Stocks fell for a fourth week as the Middle East conflict and volatile oil prices pushed investors toward safety. Energy and financials held up while utilities, materials and consumer staples lagged, and the market is wrestling with uncertainty about energy supplies and inflation. The Fed paused on rates while inflation remains stubbornly above targets. Crossmark recommends a cautious asset mix —...

Bob Doll reviews markets as Middle East conflict drives oil prices and investor concern. While the S&P 500 held roughly flat, the NASDAQ has softened, and energy-led price shocks raise the risk of higher headline inflation amid otherwise solid global growth. Despite volatile moves across equities, bonds, gold and crypto, Doll concludes the recent energy shock has not yet derailed the expansion...

Markets fell after the Iran attack, with the S&P down about 2% as investors rotated to cash amid geopolitical risk, stretched AI-related valuations, private credit concerns, and elevated earnings expectations. Sectors diverged: energy held up while materials, staples, healthcare and industrials led losses. Short-term volatility and oil sensitivity are elevated, but broad macro momentum, accomm...

Stocks were mixed last week as the S&P fell modestly while equal-weighted indexes and many non-U.S. markets outperformed. Big tech weakness—led by a nearly 7% drop in NVIDIA—contrasted with gains in utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, and energy. The episode argues that calmer or lower U.S. Treasury yields have supported risk assets despite AI-driven dislocations, tariff uncertainty, and...

Bob Doll recaps the week: S&P gains led by big tech and cyclical sectors, mixed sector performance, and largely favorable Q4 earnings while investors rotate away from overpriced internet names. He compares current market dynamics to 1999–2000 but notes the broader market’s appetite remains supported by corporate profits and accommodative financial conditions. The outlook stresses sticky inflat...

This episode reviews a market rotation from mega‑cap tech into cyclicals and international stocks: equal‑weighted S&P outperformed while the cap‑weighted S&P declined, with utilities, real estate and materials leading and financials and communication services lagging. Volatility stems from fading hopes for easy monetary policy, sticky inflation, and higher long‑term yields, prompting inves...

Bob Doll reviews last week’s mixed market action, noting S&P highs, sector winners and losers, and a big Friday rally. He argues that continued accommodative monetary and fiscal policies are supporting asset prices but warns that fundamentals—not liquidity—should guide investing. The episode outlines a broadly positive macro outlook, highlights risks from rising yields, inflation surprises, AI...

Bob Doll reviews a mixed week for markets: S&P 500 near record highs, sector rotation out of the U.S., strong corporate earnings, and buoyant liquidity supporting asset prices. Meanwhile, gold’s rally and stress at the long end of yield curves signal growing investor unease. Tight credit spreads, flat income growth, and falling foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries increase the risk of a bond-mar...

Bob Doll reviews last week’s market moves: stocks slipped, the dollar fell sharply, and gold hit a new record as geopolitics and policy headlines dominated. The episode explains how Japan’s election and proposed fiscal stimulus are lifting global bond yields, why the Fed may have limited room to ease further, and the two main risks for markets—rising sovereign yields and potential policy missteps....

Bob Doll's weekly market commentary reviews recent market action and argues that the “high-risk” bull market persists despite growing warning signs. Last week stocks were mixed: the S&P 500 slipped modestly while small caps and international markets outperformed; real estate, staples, and industrials led gains while financials and discretionary lagged. Key risks highlighted include rising yiel...

Bob Doll reviews recent market gains as major indexes hit all-time highs and argues that strong economic fundamentals and policy support are already priced into asset values. He warns that rich equity valuations, tight credit spreads, rising bond yields, and geopolitical and policy risks make further broad gains harder and increase vulnerability to setbacks in 2026. His bottom line: favor equities...