Confluence Podcasts

What impact could the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg have on markets? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, focuses on the impact of the death of the Supreme Court justice on financial markets.

How have U.S. and non-U.S. stock market sectors performed in different periods of dollar strength? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, focuses on how U.S. dollar strength affects U.S. stocks compared with foreign market stocks.

Is the dollar on the cusp of a bear market? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, looks at the possibility that we may be on the verge of a dollar bear market and what that might mean for foreign equities.

What is the impact of household debt service on discretionary income? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, looks at how debt levels are impacting consumers' ability to spend and keep the economy afloat.

Is the additional unemployment insurance reducing employment? Thomas Wash, Staff Economist, explores how the federal government's additional weekly benefit has affected unemployment.

Although the dollar remains the global reserve currency, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the role. On the domestic front, the dollar’s role has been positive for financial services and retailers, but it has been a persistent negative factor for import-competing industries and their workers. Foreign nations are increasingly uncomfortable with the U.S. weaponization of the dollar through fi...

How are money market funds acting? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the level of cash in retail money market funds.

What is behind the historic strength in gold prices? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses the issue of strong gold prices.

Join Greg Ellston, Confluence Investment Management’s CIO of Asset Allocation, for a discussion of this quarter’s outlook and changes to the Asset Allocation portfolios. Greg begins with the macro backdrop, discussing the economy and policy. From there, he shows how this macro information leads to concrete adjustments in portfolios. Even in cases where no changes are made, the analysis that holds...

What is the risk if state and local governments have to cut spending? Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Market Strategist, discusses how the coronavirus crisis may affect state and local spending.

How is the pandemic affecting the labor market? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, discusses the pandemic's impact on the labor market, focusing primarily on older workers.

Is the Federal Reserve tightening policy? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this question and discusses whether there is evidence to indicate that the Fed is now tightening policy.

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this issue in more detail. This is the final episode looking at the 2020 election. In this episode, we handicap the election based on the tools of prediction, polling and decision markets. We examine the geopolitics of the election, focusing on what co...

Where does the extra liquidity flow? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this key inflation question, especially in light of the Fed's recent policy actions.

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series examined this issue in more detail. This is the second of three podcast episodes that will look at the 2020 election. In this episode, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the issue of inequality and the rise of populism, the impact of social media, a...

What is the impact of inequality on monetary policy? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, addresses this question, primarily regarding racial inequality, in this week's episode.

Will the Fed implement negative interest rates? Bill O'Grady, Chief Market Strategist, examines whether this event may occur.

In our “2020 Geopolitical Outlook,” we named the 2020 U.S. election as a key event. Our recent five-part Weekly Geopolitical Report series, which concludes this week, examines this issue in more detail. This is the first of three podcast episodes that will look at the 2020 election. In this episode, Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the concept of public goods, who benefits from them...

We continue to build on themes discussed in episode #11, “The Lessons of History,” in which we examined the effects of earlier pandemics. In this episode, we discuss how the COVID-19 pandemic will likely accelerate the reversal of the equality/efficiency cycle toward equality. Deglobalization is a key element of that shift. Although we believe the world has been steadily moving toward equality, th...

This episode examines the economic, market and social effects of earlier pandemics. Although the Black Death is mentioned, we focus on relatively recent events, including the Spanish influenza. One of our themes has been an impending reversal in the equality/efficiency cycle; in this podcast we discuss the potential that the pandemic could accelerate the shift to an equality phase.

This episode discusses the two updates to our 2020 Outlook, in which we have moved from “storm watch” to “storm warning.” In the podcast, we note the three factors that have put the U.S. into recession—the pandemic, rising financial stress and the oil crisis. Our current take is that the recession will be deep, the deepest since the Great Depression, but likely short, given the aggressive policy r...

This episode discusses Confluence’s asset allocation process. In earlier episodes, Bill O’Grady examined the importance of process when investors are making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, while Mark Keller talked about the process for managing the firm’s value-oriented equity strategies. In this podcast, Greg Ellston, Confluence’s CIO of Asset Allocation, discusses the investment team’...

This episode discusses Confluence’s 2020 Geopolitical Outlook. We examine the U.S. 2020 elections, the situation in Iran, China’s debt, the impact of demographics and North Korea. We also provide an update on emerging issues since we published the report in mid-December.

This seventh episode discusses Confluence’s 2020 Outlook, which is titled “Storm Watch.” We explain the key points of our outlook, including three factors where our forecast could go awry, and also provide an update on developments since the report was published in December.

This episode takes our discussion of process from the previous episode and shows how it works at Confluence. Financial decisions exist in a milieu of uncertainty, and thus a sound process is critical to successful equity selection. In this episode, Mark Keller, CEO and CIO of Confluence, details the firm’s process for selecting equities.