The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - Economic Front Producer Prices were up +0.8% year-over-year in July (yes, less than 1%). Prices for intermediate processed goods are down -7.8% versus a year ago. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 71.2 on the month, down a whisker from last month’s 71.6 but up a good deal from the June print of 64.4 I did get a fair amount of inquiry about the news that...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DPZwWA Four weeks ago, I devoted a Dividend Cafe to the subject of a “dividend growth mentality.” It was intended to, amongst other things, reiterate much of the underlying value proposition for investors in buying companies that return capital to shareholders via dividends and who increase those dividend payments year-over-year. The people who read Dividend Cafe...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/454dv7h A tad to my surprise CPI came in even lower than expected (+3.2% vs. consensus estimates of +3.3%). The core rate was +4.7% as anticipated. On the month, prices ex-food, ex-energy and ex-the B.S. shelter figure were down -0.1%. Within that +3.2% the shelter component was up +7.8%, as the model shows OER (owner’s equivalent rent) up +7.7% on the year and Re...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3YukmEv I think the biggest news of the day was China’s -0.3% consumer price index for the month of July, and it’s -4.4% producer price index. This was the tenth month in a row of wholesale price deflation, but it was the first month in over two years of consumer price deflation. I am dedicating next week’s Dividend Cafe to the subject of Chinafication. In keeping...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3OoSkpj From what I had initially thought would be a relatively quiet day in markets given the economic calendar, we ended up with a good amount of news to chew through in choppy markets with stocks selling off, a bid in bonds and volatility continuing its week-long climb. China reported softer than expected trade activity in exports and imports, reflecting its co...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Yoorda Greetings from New York City (again). Lots of fun stuff today in my favorite DC Today of the week – the Monday edition (I love Mondays for so many reasons). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rVTWPV I hope that you found last week’s Dividend Cafe on Credit to be informative and interesting. It’s summertime, and some people are more focused on the beach and the sun than syndicated loans, but not me. The cool factor has never quite been something people associated with me, and if I have to enter the month of August with a double issue of Dividend Cafe o...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QoFycQ Saudi put a further stake in the ground on extending production cuts, and oil jumped over +2.5% as a result (nearing $82 WTI). Again, they cite the silliness of SPR not making any moves to refill (something I spoke about on CNBC last night). Other than 2008 when the world was ending, 2022 and 2023 have seen the highest bond volatility since the 1980’s. Thi...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DGpZpC Fitch (the least known of the three major credit rating agencies) downgraded the U.S. from AAA to AA+, citing growing fiscal deterioration and overall debt burden. Now, you might be thinking, “oh no this sounds really bad,” and certainly anyone who doesn’t think the debt burden in the U.S. is really bad has, shall we say, not let the medication wear off …...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3q8RMfd August is off and running! The Dow was up +3.4% in July, nearly half of its total gain in 2023 coming in the month. Both the Nasdaq and S&P were up over +3% as well. Bonds sold off today as yields rallied, and with a weak manufacturing number today, the only reason I can see bond yields climbing today is some expectation (for right or for wrong) that t...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rQeA3P Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QipwRU Everyone loves to talk about the stock market. When it is doing well, people assume everything is great (wrongly). When it is doing poorly, people assume everything is terrible (wrongly). Presidencies can rise or fall based on the Dow or the S&P 500. The stock market is at least familiar to most people, even if they don’t own stocks. It has cultural fa...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4563eH1 As balanced as Jay Powell’s comments were yesterday in the presser following the latest and potentially last 25 bps rate hike of 2023, markets opened in rally mode taking comfort in his ‘data dependency’ rate path commitment over what could have been otherwise hawkish comments. We then got an entire slew of strong economic data around 830AM EST with durabl...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3rRaJTS The Dow was up for the 12th market day in a row, the longest streak since February of 2017 … (the ancient history of 6.5 years ago, back when I was much younger). Hong Kong and China stocks rallied hard (+4%) as Chinese leadership pledged more “support” for their property sector. What could go wrong? Some “worry” China will “succeed” in fighting their disi...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3O7FRWJ I am back in New York City after a few days working from my house in East Hampton and ready for a hot and humid week in the concrete jungle. Office needs and speaking engagements didn’t allow me too much time at our Hamptons home this summer but I do enjoy being here in the city even in my least favorite time of the year weather-wise (I will take the snow...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NZaBt7 Bring up the issue of “off-shoring” American manufacturing and you will get a wide variety of responses, many of them highly emotional. Today’s vernacular talks about “onshoring” or “re-shoring” or “near-shoring” – various synonyms or adjacent concepts to the idea of reversing certain trends of globalization, primarily the ones dealing with American activi...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44yThlA It’s hard for contrarians to like some of the sentiment out there, with “bulls” at their highest level since April of 2021 and bears at their lowest level since June of 2021. The greed/fear index is tilted way towards the “greed” side of things and while it feels good to some, we like it the other way. Earnings season has started off well across the market...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4796XFZ David Bahnsen is traveling today and I, Trevor Cummings, will be filling in to provide you with the daily happenings around markets on this beautiful summer day. The market hit a 52-week high, the Dow is on its longest win streak (8 consecutive days) since September 2019, headlines were captivated by a slew of corporate earnings reports, we have new housin...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3DhRwgD After crickets last night in futures, we opened up nicely on the day right out of the gate and continued to trade higher in both stocks and bonds throughout the entire session closing just off the highs. For all those waiting for the data or news indicating some recession shoe to drop we just aren’t seeing it and flows are quietly but steadily moving more...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q15Bql Economic Front One of the economists I read every day who has been screaming non-stop for 18 months now that we are entering a recession sent a “reminder” email this morning that we are “still likely” to enter a recession. And maybe we are. First of all, broken clocks and all that stuff. But secondly, I think the question about if and when we enter a reces...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JYQSbA I am writing this week’s Dividend Cafe from Reagan International Airport in Washington DC. I recorded the video and podcast from my hotel room last night. I am soon departing for Memphis, TN where I am speaking at a conference Friday and Saturday before returning to New York. I was in DC to speak to a very large group of college students at George Mason Un...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Ddn2fV Earnings season is officially underway (companies like Delta and Pepsi released today, and a slew of big banks release tomorrow). The annual inflation rate came in yesterday at the lowest level in more than two years. The dollar is at its lowest level (against a global basket of different currencies since April of last year. Senator Warren is officially no...

Although closing off the highs, stocks and bonds rallied today on cooler-than-expected CPI data, with the headline now at 3.0% year over year. With a 90% chance in fed funds futures still pointing to a 25bps rate increase in two weeks, it was as interesting to see the expectations for a rate cut pull forward from May of next year to March. Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/43hXzMY Links mentioned...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/46Mbde0 Markets today rallied even with all eyes on tomorrow’s CPI number. Three Fed governors have doubled down on the need for more rate hikes in the last 24 hours. China is releasing a wide array of policy support measures to support its floundering property market and construction industry. Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway has taken a 75% interest in one of t...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NJ2dO3 I hope you all had a wonderful Fourth of July holiday. I love Independence Day, and I love celebrating America’s independence. I love the Declaration of Independence (and I should add, it has quite a bit of economic messaging in it). And of course, having the time to celebrate summer, family, friends, and all the traditions and customs that go with the Fou...