The Dividend Cafe

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LvZG9P Oil hit a ten-month high this morning. Bonds continue selling off as yields continue rallying. Japanese ownership of Treasuries increased by $7 billion on the month, while Chinese holdings decreased by $13 billion. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44YIrFd Nothing like the Monday DCT with a great deal of stuff for you today about housing, policy, the economy, markets, and more! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r79obX Thursday afternoon I received an inquiry through the “questions” portal whereby a reader asked “how one is supposed to go about selecting a financial advisor” – attaching to the question the appropriate sub-questions around trust, qualifications, needs, and services. I know I have addressed this topic over the years but I think it has been at least five ye...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EGfov8 The European Central Bank (ECB) raised their rate to 4%, and bond yields FELL (go figure) – mostly because markets price in today what they believe about the future. Job hirings have slowed, but job firings have too. We live in interesting times. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44MsGRn Today was a heavily anticipated news day for markets, with August CPI coming largely in line with expectations at .6% on headline inflation for the month and 3.7% year-over-year. As we had expected, higher energy prices moved that headline number, with gasoline specifically up 10.5%, which accounted for almost half of the total move higher in CPI. The Fed...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PExy76 Mexico has the strongest currency in the world this year. Its stock market is on fire (near the best in the world this year), It has overtaken China as the biggest supplier of goods to the United States (did you know that?). Direct investment from foreign countries into Mexico is up +40% in 2023 alone. Do you see why I refer to “near-shoring” as much as “o...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4680dH4 The first thing I will say before delving into this September 11 edition of DC Today as I sit here in New York City is that I honor those who were killed that day, and I will never, ever forget the atrocity that it was. I have written about this day in a very special Dividend Cafe before (I encourage you to re-read it), but regardless, whether it has been...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PxghfG Today, I would like to use the last five years to make some broader points about the realities of investing. Evergreen realities are, well, permanent. Yet we find within the last five years some serious bold-faced reiteration of these realities to which I refer (and as you will soon see, there actually is a particular single reality most on my radar this w...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/466evrH Markets acted a little more 2022-ish today, with defensives all up and Technology way down. Reports of a Chinese iPhone ban from government departments took a toll, and the U.S. dollar may be headed to its eighth consecutive weekly increase (longest streak since 2005 if it holds). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenG...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3LcqThy Oil is the story of markets yet again, with Brent now passing $90 and WTI Crude passing $87. The idea that oil was between $65 and $75 for months and we did nothing to help re-fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is just surreal to me. These prices at now 10-month highs are sure to exacerbate the delta between core and headline inflation in the months ahea...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3r2cE8d This is the kind of DC Today I love love love writing – where I really get to absorb a lot of material and bring pen to paper (or finger to keys) in all categories. I always loved this format the most, and being able to do this long-form version once a week is a true joy for me. Doing it every single day as I did for quite some time (though today’s is full...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/487nJFU So you may have seen in yesterday’s DC Today that my plans for an out-of-country few days with my wife this week, unplugged from work and electronics, was foiled yet again, this time by Hurricane Franklin. We have a running list over the last nearly 25 years of that which has prevented such an “unplugging,” and truth-be-told, we just are what we are. It se...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47WCxH3 I arrived back in California late last evening with Hurricane Franklin having cancelled our previously mentioned trip out of the country. Joleen and I replaced it with a couple days away at our place in the Hamptons, not exactly unplugged, but not exactly fully working. Maybe the notion of a true work-free unplugged trip will happen some day, but I have to...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3sAjvX7 Futures looked like we were going to give a little back from the move higher the past three days until about 830AM EST when we got a slew of softer than expected economic data, and since bad news is the new good for markets, moved us back into positive territory on the day. Q2 GDP was revised a little lower, ADP Payroll came in weaker than expected, and th...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3L3fHUy The third up day in a row in markets today in a broad-based rally that closed at the high. The S&P 500 is still down 2% for the month, but with three trading days left in the last week of summer, we’ll see if we get a little more back before Labor Day weekend. Yields were lower across the entire curve today, with treasuries rallying following a much lo...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK Brian Szytel takes on DC Today through Wednesday, so we leave you in his capable hands! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK The right thing to do with Dividend Cafe the weekend USC football season is beginning is just replay last year’s edition over and over again, one of my favorite Dividend Cafes of all time … But alas, I have never rehashed old material for a Dividend Cafe since this weekly writing began in September of 2008 and I won’t start now. Fresh and new every week is...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44urVw5 Nasdaq futures were up over 1% this morning with technology exuberance following NVidia’s big earnings beat last night (the stock itself was up 10% pre market). So why did the stock end up closing just flat? Valuations do matter. We talk about it often but excitement over AI or other shiny object parts of the market get priced in with lofty expectations al...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44nfT7G Markets caught a little relief today, and the biggest AI chipmaker seems to have hit it out of the park after hours (we’ll see what holds tomorrow). Bonds rallied substantially, and so as bond yields fell, equities rose … There has been chatter about rising credit card delinquencies. Let’s be clear – rising from 2% to 2.6% is an increase, but this is an in...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/45fwZGb This was the fifth day out of six that the Dow was down. China is defending its weakening Yuan currency by making it more expensive to bet against it (raising the funding costs makes it more expensive to short). They face a pickle of wanting looser monetary policy to support their weaker economy but wanting a stronger Yuan as their currency has depreciated...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44nVfEQ A Monday DC Today, the way it is supposed to be today. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44fYpKv I am not sure it has gotten nearly the press it deserves, but the one economic story that has managed to get the financial press to talk about something besides the Fed’s rate plans and “will we or won’t we” talk regarding U.S. recession has been the state of China’s economy. Don’t get me wrong – it has hardly been barn-burning stuff, and press coverage ha...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3E5y8nq 10-year yields rose to 4.29% today on the way towards the October highs of last year at 4.34%, and the yield curve steepened with 2/10’s now at 65 bps. Today we saw jobless claims come in slightly better than expected and an upside surprise in the Philadelphia Manufacturing Survey data, both supporting higher growth expectations which is what moved rates o...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3EicX1X Following yesterday’s dismal economic data out in China and the largest rate cut there in 3 years (mind you, we are only talking about 15 bps), there was some add-on stress revealed in the real estate and financial markets today. One of China’s larger wealth management and shadow banking firms, with over $138B in assets, missed some repayments on some of i...

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44d1yL0 One of the things I used to get most frustrated by in the 2000-2007 period of artificially low interest rates, or 2010-2016, or 2020-2022, is how people assumed a central bank reducing rates was a good thing, when the only reason the Fed was doing it was because they believed things were bad. In other words, yes, a rate cut or low rates may (in many cases...