What's Not Priced In

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory   go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch   All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment...

In his last appearance on What's Not Priced In, Greg Canavan discussed the Santa rally. Festivities have since dragged into the new year. At the start of December, Greg said this: ‘Everything is about probability. And I think the probability of the Fed or the Reserve Bank pulling off a soft landing when you’ve hiked rates so sharply is quite low. Betting on this rally to continue is a low-probabil...

2024 could be a crucial year for commodities. So thinks Fat Tail's resident commodities guru James Cooper. And he outlined several reasons why. US election. China stimulus. Rate cuts. Falling US dollar. Rising India. Any  of these events can ignite commodities in 2024. James joined Kiryll Prakapenka on this week’s episode of What’s Not Priced In  to talk why he’s upbeat about commodities...

'Get amongst it.' Don’t get caught up in predictions. Nobody really knows what’s coming this year. Proceed knowing a lot of excellent risk versus reward stocks are out there still. The small cap sector, especially, has ‘heaps of opportunities’. So don’t despair you’ve missed anything. Get revved up. That was Callum Newman’s message on the first episode of What’s Not Priced In for 2024. And it was...

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory   go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch   All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment...

In this episode, Kiryll Prakapenka grills Fat Tail's small caps expert Callum Newman about Callum's optimistic outlook for Aussie small caps. Topics discussed: Why Greg Canavan called Callum the 'most positive man in finance' Why Callum thinks 'all the ingredients are there for the Aussie stock market to start firing on all cylinders' How macroeconomic conditions inform (or don't inform) Callum's...

In the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka discuss: - RBA thinks Australia’s inflation is ‘increasingly homegrown and demand driven’ - But are ASX retail stocks saying something different? - What do recent updates from Accent Group, Lovisa, Kogan, Temple & Webster, and Nick Scali suggest? - What is going on with Origin Energy? - High cost of capital is fo...

In the latest episode of What’s Not Priced In , Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka discussed: Whether or not the US inflation data was significant Australia’s historic wages growth and what it means for interest rates Valuations of the Big Four banks They look cheap, but there’s more to it Outlook for cashed up Aussie gold miners Unappreciated insights from the RBA’s latest Statement High mortgage...

To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory   go here . For more free research, check out Money Morning Australia . Check out our YouTube Channel https://www.youtube.com/@FatTailInvestmentResearch   All content is © Fat Tail Investment Research Pty Ltd All Rights Reserved. We provide general financial product advice only. The advice published by Fat Tail Investment...

In this episode of What's Not Priced In, Greg Canavan and Kiryll Prakapenka provide an in-depth examination of the 2023 market to date. They discuss the nuances that suggest this isn't the capitulation low that many are anticipating.  Leveraging data-driven insights and expert interviews, the episode offers a thorough analysis for those looking to understand the current market dynamics and wh...

Greg Canavan dives into the current state of the major US and Aussie stock indices in this episode of What’s Not Priced In... The prevailing downtrends are signaling a significant shift, with tight monetary policy already impacting market liquidity. And it’s only just starting. Lacy Hunt’s latest quarterly outlook shows you the US economy is about the hit the wall. This is crucial analysis because...

Ready to explore hidden gems in the world of junior miners? Join me in this episode as I interview James Cooper, Fat Tail Investment Research's resident geologist and seasoned commodities expert. James and I delve into the current firesale of junior miners in Australia, dissecting the opportunities and potential risks. Is now the opportune moment to make a move? Find out in this episode of What's...

In this special episode of What’s Not Priced In, Greg shares a recent interview he did with South Australian Senator Alex Antic that has previously only been available to our paying subscribers. With another example of the absurdity of the Net Zero push coming from AI, Greg believes it’s time to really drill into whether there is in fact a sound agenda behind this nonsensical energy transition. E...

Market jitters. Bond sell-offs. Extreme fear. Rising volatility. Panic at the disco? Panic or not, it’s certainly getting exciting. In the 20 th episode of What’s Not Priced In,  Greg Canavan and I cover the latest moves in the bond market, the Reserve Bank’s latest decision, fearful market sentiment, and the outlook for key commodities. Greg thinks markets are not at a capitulation low just...

Only 40 stocks in the ASX 200 are in the green this month. The rest are either neutral or in the red. Some, like Star Entertainment, are hitting all-time lows in September. Others, like Lake Resources and Brainchip, are registering new 52-week lows. Markets are blaming rising bond yields. So where do things stand? Will interest rates remain ‘higher for longer’ and further depress stock valuations?...

The US Fed held rates steady but flagged more tightening ahead. And markets finally caught on that the central bank is deadly serious about taming inflation.  So are we entering a new era of 'higher for longer' interest rates? As Greg Canavan and I mentioned before, when consensus forms in markets, it pays to listen to your inner contrarian. Rising bond yields suggest investors are more confi...

Is inflation re-accelerating? Will rising oil prices push central banks to raise rates further? Is a recession now unlikely? And are markets overvalued? These are the meaty questions we grappled with this episode. As for what's not priced in? Recession remains a risk the market continues to under-price, at its peril.  To learn about Greg's premium service Fat Tail Investment Advisory   g...

In this week’s episode of What’s Not Priced In, I interview data scientist Aiden Morrison. Aiden has been making waves on Twitter recently by digging into CSIRO and AEMO data to expose some major flaws in the energy transition. I was intrigued by his findings and asked him to come on and share what he has discovered. Without wanting to sound hyperbolic, the information will shock you. It is simply...

Earnings season is nearly over but everyone is talking about inflation. The latest monthly CPI reading came in lower than expected, and the market reacted well. But is this warranted? And what's the bond market telling us?  Inflation IS cooling, but at hte expense of households. The US consumer is running down their savings and the amount Aussie households are putting into offset accounts is...

What an episode we have for you this week -- filled with lots of stock analysis and hard-earned wisdom. Today, we assess the winners and losers of the reporting season so far. We profiled Coles, Woollies, Altium, WiseTech, Carsales, Data3, and Hub24.  Even Domino's gets a mention -- the tech stock disguised as a pizza merchant. Or is it a pizza merchant disguised as a tech stock?  Anyway...

In this special ‘bonus’ series of What’s Not Priced In, I look at the cost and implications of Australia’s energy transition from an economic and political perspective. In general, this transition is blindly accepted as being inevitable, but there are few discussions around what it actually means and whether it makes sense or is even possible to shift to a renewables only economy. In this episode,...

Huge debt, ageing population -- is China past its peak? So ran a recent headline in The Australian. And usually when such headlines hit the front pages, the news is priced in. This episode, Greg and I assess the worries surrounding China's ailing economy. Do Aussie investors have anything to fret about? You'll have to watch the full episode, but Greg did warn the iron ore miners could see a downgr...

Disinflation versus deflation. Momentum versus fundamentals. Price versus earnings. Today's episode is all about contrasts.  We discuss the diverging economic fortunes of the US and China, momentum trading pulling valuations away from fundamentals, and the stagnant Aussie market. Greg then explains why commodities still offer long-term value, exploring some unloved but enticing mining service...

In this special ‘bonus’ series of What’s Not Priced In, I look at the cost and implications of Australia’s energy transition from an economic and political perspective.  In general, this transition is blindly accepted as being inevitable, but there are few discussions around what it actually means and whether it makes sense or is even possible to shift to a renewables only economy. In this ep...

There is no such thing as a free lunch. So don’t feast if you’re not prepared to foot the bill. With the market betting on a soft landing despite high interest rates winding their way through the economy, are markets expecting a free lunch? And are they prepared for when the bill comes due? In today’s episode, we discuss the outlook for interest rates, stretched stock valuations, the significance...